GD0815 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 looks like it will be another grazing hit,prob closer than 12z tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jeez... This run of the ECMWF is just ever so slightly delayed (maybe a few hours) with the northern stream energy. Still bombs out east of NJ and throws some precip back. Looks very, very interesting given the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Huge hit for Long Island at 78 hours. CCB sits from NYC East. 980mb low sitting directly over the 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We probably could not afford for this system to be any more amped or closer....would likely have mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Holy crap. What a huge signal here with that digging s/w trend. Like earthlight has stated, if the northern stream is a tad better, we get a fully phased bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Holy crap @ 78 hours... If that was ever so slightly more amped and further west, we'd be talking about a MECS here. 976 SE of the 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We probably could not afford for this system to be any more amped or closer....would likely have mixing issues. Highly unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We probably could not afford for this system to be any more amped or closer....would likely have mixing issues. Don't agree at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is it just me or does this feel like a scaled down version of 12/26/10 from the day before the big trend? Just about all models tonight (other than the NAM, but the NAM at hour 84 isn't even worth mentioning) seem to be slowly inching towards something bigger. I'm definitely not implying this will be a blizzard again with 8-12+ inches, it may not make it all the way to a large storm, but it could be something at least somewhat bigger than the light 2-4" event the models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Huge hit for Long Island at 78 hours. CCB sits from NYC East. 980mb low sitting directly over the 40/70. yup, i really thought it would still be more east.....still looks like places like long island and cape cod sitting pretty as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Boston gets annihilated at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is it just me or does this feel like a scaled down version of 12/26/10 from the day before the big trend? Just about all models tonight (other than the NAM, but the NAM at hour 84 isn't even worth mentioning) seem to be slowly inching towards something bigger. I'm definitely not implying this will be a blizzard again with 8-12+ inches, it may not make it all the way to a large storm, but it could be something at least somewhat bigger than the light 2-4" event the models have. It is pretty ironic that we're also watching a feature diving southeast through the Plains to meet up with a shortwave over the MS Valley ... as we were then. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We still have time for it to trend even better, awesome signal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We probably could not afford for this system to be any more amped or closer....would likely have mixing issues. I'll take my chances with the more amped solution. There is a MUCH improved airmass to work with and honestly, I think a sub-980 system offshore would have some impressive dynamics to squash any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Holy crap @ 78 hours... If that was ever so slightly more amped and further west, we'd be talking about a MECS here. 976 SE of the 40/70 I think we get warning criteria snows anyway from the 0z ECM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro and GFS are worlds apart now. The Euro has a closed ULL sitting east of Cape Cod at 84 hours...GFS isn't on the same page and that's putting it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 yup, i really thought it would still be more east.....still looks like places like long island and cape cod sitting pretty as of now but the timing looks to be around during the day, wonder if there'll be some precip issues, especially in the south shore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Boston gets annihilated at 84 hours. More of the Cape. Eastern LI and the Cape are 1"-1.25" total qpf. NYC is .65"-.75" Western Suffolk: .75"-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro and GFS are worlds apart now. The Euro has a closed ULL sitting east of Cape Cod at 84 hours...GFS isn't on the same page and that's putting it lightly. Liquid area wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro is deadly from this range as well compared to the other models. I have a feeling the gfs and nam are going to be playing catch up for the next 24 hrs. So what is the QPF or possible snow totals based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro and GFS are worlds apart now. The Euro has a closed ULL sitting east of Cape Cod at 84 hours...GFS isn't on the same page and that's putting it lightly. Wouldn't be the first time. I saw positive changes as early as 36-48 hrs here so im putting lots of trust into the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Liquid area wide? Eastern LI and the Cape are 1"-1.25" total qpf. NYC is .65"-.75" Western Suffolk: .75"-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jersey is .25"-.50". More as you go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Liquid area wide? 0.50" line from PHL to HPN 0.75" line from Mt Holly through JFK to CT Coast 1.00" line from Jersey Shore to Islip 1.50" from Montauk to Boston 2.00" over the Cape/Far SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We probably could not afford for this system to be any more amped or closer....would likely have mixing issues. The northern stream really brings cold air dynamics into this thing. euro keeps 850's off the coast of cape may. very feasible to stay cold. @ the phase, it really crashes the cold air into the center. Classic CCB. nice run for i-95. nice trends at h5 to make things a little sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 KLGA SAT 12Z 29-DEC -1.7 -2.2 1018 75 88 0.00 552 538 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 0.8 -5.1 1012 85 98 0.08 547 538 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 0.3 -3.6 1003 94 100 0.27 539 537 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -0.9 -6.4 1001 83 94 0.33 530 529 SUN 12Z 30-DEC -3.1 -7.6 1007 71 75 0.00 529 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 00z CMC is somewhat closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's becoming more evident every day that this needs to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A Euro type solution would be amazing, but hey lets just be happy that pretty much every model is showing at least some snow for us! And it's no longer 100+ hours out. Can't help but get excited over the recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We're seeing this big ECM jump just 72-84 hours out - if it was 120+ hours out it'd probably be just another ECM run, but seeing this in the short range, along with the minor changes on the rest of tonight's model runs, makes me wonder if it's actually onto something. Tomorrow could be interesting if so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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