Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No, its just the usual models inability to handle the evaporative cooling factor in the boundary layer...KISP is 32/26 when the precip moves in...surface winds are SW initially but very light. Thanks. Looking off maps on SV, they seem to have no issues. South and east of Phl does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0z GGEM also came in stronger and more north than previous runs. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No, its just the usual models inability to handle the evaporative cooling factor in the boundary layer...KISP is 32/26 when the precip moves in...surface winds are SW initially but very light. Is there any sort of organized anticyclone anywhere to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No, its just the usual models inability to handle the evaporative cooling factor in the boundary layer...KISP is 32/26 when the precip moves in...surface winds are SW initially but very light. ..will the wind switch around? a SW wind usually kills us here on the island..should go NE,no?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We're getting very, very close to the big solutions coming back on forecast guidance. Check out the differences aloft on the GFS since 12z. 12z GFS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f66.gif Tonights 00z GFS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f54.gif One more trend like that and we'll likely have a much stronger storm system at our latitude, producing much more significant precipitation. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hoping for the best here but the nagging thought of "everything has to be just right" keeps me from getting excited. I would love to see more blocking or more of a mechanism to force a phase and favorable track. It could still happen but odds are still long for a major event (more than 3-6"). Hopefully I'm wrong. The 12/26/10 event was widely forecasted to be a miss at this range, so a lot could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's close...this is looking like a 2-4 inch event.What I'm starting to believe is that the second vort acts like a kicker. It's producing a a perturbation in the trough axis which continues to prevent the system from fulling developing once it hits the coast. Tough also remains positive to neutral in tilt. Probably a Cape Cod special. I can't resist the 120 hr GFS image. There's been a lot of honking about that system it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I still think this is a 3-4, maybe 5" snow event....it has never really seemed like too much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's close...this is looking like a 2-4 inch event.What I'm starting to believe is that the second vort acts like a kicker. It's producing a a perturbation in the trough axis which continues to prevent the system from fulling developing once it hits the coast. Tough also remains positive to neutral in tilt. Probably a Cape Cod special. I can't resist the 120 hr GFS image. There's been a lot of honking about that system it seems. The models have problems sometimes thinking the 2nd vort is a kicker, usually it is, but sometimes its not and sort of pulls the initial wave or trough negative. The January 2000 and 12/26/10 storm likely both were missed initially because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hoping for the best here but the nagging thought of "everything has to be just right" keeps me from getting excited. I would love to see more blocking or more of a mechanism to force a phase and favorable track. It could still happen but odds are still long for a major event (more than 3-6"). Hopefully I'm wrong. The 12/26/10 event was widely forecasted to be a miss at this range, so a lot could still happen. I don't think it's that difficult at this stage. This isn't a "thread the needle" event where we have a crappy airmass and terrible setup. There is some confluence prior to the event to stop it from going north, the set up overall is good. To illustrate my point above about the GFS trend...check out two maps from the 00z run. It is this northern stream feature highlighted in yellow that is essential. As soon as this feature hits the lead vort the PVA touches off the rapidly strengthening surface low. The GFS has trended faster with this feature, and more organized with the initial vort. Also notice now that the base of the trough is digging as far south as MS/AL as a result of this. It's hard to say whether or not this trend will continue...but if it does we could see some very strong solutions (maybe ones similar to the Ukie first). We'll have to see. It could go the other way as well. Gotta love this time of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0z GEFS has 0.50 + qpf for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep24084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Based on the SLP location and the distribution of the QPF, I suspect that there are simply two camps: wide right misses with practically nothing for the area (majority of members) and some very significant amped up members (few of the members). Really close on the 00Z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Probably a full day to a day and a half for more model shifting to occur before we can lock in. The trends are good, hopefully the Euro shows something nice and the models continue to trend more favorably. Also for once we have something that's not beyond Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Interesting that the 00Z GEFS has a possible 3-5" of snow for NYC and 5-8" for SNJ/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll keep my eye on this one for the next 24 hours and see if there will be any significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Interesting that the 00Z GEFS has a possible 3-5" of snow for NYC and 5-8" for SNJ/LI. It's pretty far offshore so immediate coastal areas do better than the interior. We still get 3-6" in Westchester though, not a bad snowfall, and cold temperatures afterward. 0z GFS has -20C 850s entering the area around Day 8, after an overrunning event misses to south. That will also have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll keep my eye on this one for the next 24 hours and see if there will be any significant changes. on behalf of every one here, thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I don't think it's that difficult at this stage. This isn't a "thread the needle" event where we have a crappy airmass and terrible setup. There is some confluence prior to the event to stop it from going north, the set up overall is good. To illustrate my point above about the GFS trend...check out two maps from the 00z run. It is this northern stream feature highlighted in yellow that is essential. As soon as this feature hits the lead vort the PVA touches off the rapidly strengthening surface low. The GFS has trended faster with this feature, and more organized with the initial vort. Also notice now that the base of the trough is digging as far south as MS/AL as a result of this. It's hard to say whether or not this trend will continue...but if it does we could see some very strong solutions (maybe ones similar to the Ukie first). We'll have to see. It could go the other way as well. Gotta love this time of year.. Yeah, it seems like a "snow or no" event that needs a well-timed phase and ability to dig enough to spawn a deep system. We still have some time to trend to a deep system but I'd like to see it soon. Either way, enough snow to make it wintry here is enough for me. Looking at debris piles from Sandy (some of which are being blown around tonight on my street) still is just slightly dampening to the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ukmet has a bomb just east of the benchmark. Wow When that occurs with no other model support, it is a red flag, since it is usually late to trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is a good bit more amplified through 48 hr. We'll see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Shortwave digging way more in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Northern stream s/w is lagging a bit at 54 hr..still over Iowa. We need that to race southeast and capture the initial shortwave. But this looks pretty amped up...and more organized with the trough than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This will be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is pretty close to showing a big solution here. But it's just a little late with the N stream s/w still. We need that to phase in order to get the surface low to head more north/northeast than east/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is pretty close to showing a big solution here. But it's just a little late with the N stream s/w still. We need that to phase in order to get the surface low to head more north/northeast than east/northeast. How does it end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 1004 on OBX at 66. Snow for everybody. Going to be a buzzer-beater if the northern stream does happen to catch up and get this thing deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ack...getting late in the game for a phase/no phase change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is pretty close to showing a big solution here. But it's just a little late with the N stream s/w still. We need that to phase in order to get the surface low to head more north/northeast than east/northeast. I see what you are describing. But man, this is so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Really trying to tuck into the coast. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 990's mb east of ACY at 72 hours. I think we've got ourselves a storm boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.