MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 stop what? Do i get to say that to you every time your model analysis is atrocious? If not, then dont tell me to "stop" when I make a innocuous about the rest of the winter. Which I will be correct about, in retrospect... Ok, internet bully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Which I will be correct about, in retrospect... I'm sorry dude but you are not an all-knowing person who can see into the future and if you are wrong and all it would take is an average winter overall for that to happen, you can be sure you will be reminded about it regularly. Mods, maybe this all needs to be moved to banter by the way which is where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm sorry dude but you are not an all-knowing person who can see into the future and if you are wrong and all it would take is an average winter overall for that to happen, you can be sure you will be reminded about it regularly. Mods, maybe this all needs to be moved to banter by the way which is where it belongs. avg winter will be "nothing to write home about". You are right this does belong in the banter thread...so I will stop posting about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ok, internet bully i think you were the one bullying...either way, you are probably the most optimistic person i have ever come across, which is a GREAT thing. Wish I had that quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 avg winter will be "nothing to write home about". You are right this does belong in the banter thread...so I will stop posting about it. Disagree. Average winters are rare of late. 2008-09 is what I'd call average. Sorry but 25-30 inches of snow and decent cold is not "nothing to write home about." Now I will stop posting about it as well as this clearly should be in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i think you were the one bullying...either way, you are probably the most optimistic person i have ever come across, which is a GREAT thing. Wish I had that quality. optimistic and a great guy too..nothing wrong with that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 The Euro is definitely more amplified than it was at 0z. Don't think it'll be enough for a good event but it's a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 The .1 QPF line is close to C NJ at 78 hours. We had nothing resembling that last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 At 84 hours, the .1 line covers pretty much all of NJ and CT, and the .25 line is in SE NJ and SE Suffolk County. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yes, we got really close here. A side swipe. Good trend though. I will be interested in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 So a huge shift west this run. One more shift of this magnitude and we're looking at a significant snowstorm. The northern stream was more involved this run, making the trough much sharper. It still has a progressive look overall, but considering how much it jumped from 00z and the fact that the GFS isn't THAT suppresses makes me think that we still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 feeling confident that guidance will adjust once this current system is wrapped up in the gulf of Maine.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So a huge shift west this run. One more shift of this magnitude and we're looking at a significant snowstorm. The northern stream was more involved this run, making the trough much sharper. It still has a progressive look overall, but considering how much it jumped from 00z and the fact that the GFS isn't THAT suppresses makes me think that we still have time. Models seem to indicate a piece of energy breaks off from that northern PAC low and beats down the ridge out west. If that feature is true (which the gfs and euro both show) I think this is going to miss. By not allowing the hgts out west to pump because the ridge gets beat down by the energy from the northern PAC I find it hard to believe there will be as much interaction from the northern stream to save this system from going OTS. Pattern remains too progressive to allow amplification. That ridge needs to pump because it could force the northern stream component to phase with the STJ and allow for a coastal system. As of now though I don't think that is likely based on what the guidance is showing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what was the ecm showing for 1/2 - 1/3 potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what was the ecm showing for 1/2 - 1/3 potential? nothing significant....low hangs in SW with confluence in canada but it looks to get squashed/shunted as it heads E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean is much like the operational run, just side swiping us with around .15 of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 nothing significant....low hangs in SW with confluence in canada but it looks to get squashed/shunted as it heads E. The euro and the gfs vary significantly with the sw energy. The euro fails to eject it earlier like the gfs. If it ejects earlier it has a chance to conect with the northern stream component and present a threat for our area. If it hangs back it will remain cold and dry. There is a nice spike in the ridge out west, it would be very beneficial if the sw does eject, then I believe we have a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Srefs looks pretty decent for this event. I think we need to keep watching the trends as a light event is looking pretty good right now with potential for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18Z NAM is much further N/W then 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18Z NAM is much further N/W then 12z run.eh....seems about 700 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The euro and the gfs vary significantly with the sw energy. The euro fails to eject it earlier like the gfs. If it ejects earlier it has a chance to conect with the northern stream component and present a threat for our area. If it hangs back it will remain cold and dry. There is a nice spike in the ridge out west, it would be very beneficial if the sw does eject, then I believe we have a legit threat. Euro has problems out there in the SW holding energy back, exactly why I'm still watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM is the driest and most offshore. eh....seems about 700 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hopefully we can pull another one out, but I still think it will be tough to get a substantial event when there's not much of a block. Maybe a more minor event, which would still be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM improved at 500mb so things are still changing. Every other model shows a light event at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The culprit looks to be the models just holding enough energy back over the SW at 48 hrs for the trough to stay positive tilt a little too long. This is about as close to missing a major event that we get around here. Most folks near the coast would be happy just to get a light to moderate event so we wouldn't finish with a shutout for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest gfs looking better, more amplified but still not quite there. Hopefully the trend continues into tonight's runs as it's getting closer to the event. I think a light event is growing likely meaning either 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow but there's a possibility of a more moderate event 3-6 to 4-8 inches as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 jan 2-3 looks way different this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 2-4" is nice--i hope being on the island becomes more of an advantage come Saturday unlike in today's event where the city is snowing but we're seeing mostly rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Jan 2-3 is showing up on the gfs this time, it kind of has a strong overrunning look to it with a lot of cold air to the north and ample moisture being thrown into the cold air. Would love to see a PD II type storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro ensembles are secys. A nice 2-4/3-6 would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.