Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just to keep thing organized and prevent threads from having overlapping storm discussion, I figured it would be a good idea to start a thread for all posts and discussion related to the 12/29 - New Years threat. The airmass certainly looks better this time around and we are in an active pattern, so hopefully this produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's encouraging that the Pacific looks pretty favorable for this set-up. Right now on the GFS the trough axis looks a little bit too far east but that's fine given how far out we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro has a monster west coast ridge but it doesn't eject the cutoff (shocker) with a potent northern stream wave diving down and cold over the east. I'd say it looks very favorable at this point which is an eternity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z Euro was a Lakes Cutter special (H5 closes off quickly and trof goes neutral again too early to help the EC) 06z GFS has the energy, but it's weak and doesn't develop much on the EC. There will be a significant chance in either the Euro or the GFS in the next 24 Hr as this system is quickly entering the 144-156 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z Euro was a Lakes Cutter special (H5 closes off quickly and trof goes neutral again too early to help the EC) 06z GFS has the energy, but it's weak and doesn't develop much on the EC. There will be a significant chance in either the Euro or the GFS in the next 24 Hr as this system is quickly entering the 144-156 hr range. The Euro tends to be cutter fond the last 5 or so years since the upgrade if a cutter is even remotely possible in the 6-10 day range. I would honestly be more concerned of a miss to the East in this setup than I would be of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs slides this out to sea on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GGEM is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The set up on some of the models is a bit muddled in the mid range with the confluent flow over the Northeast hanging on a little longer. That being said, the general broad set up remains very favorable -- especially given the trends for lesser confluence and faster movement of troughs out of the Northeast as we approach storms over the last several weeks. Regardless, we're left with some decent potential...a weak ridge spike out west and a nicely placed trough over the Central US on 12/29. To me, the main feature to watch is the northern stream energy on the GFS at 150 hours. That shortwave is just soaring south/southeast through the Plains. We'll have to see if it can start interacting with the initial energy over the MS Valley on the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is way less amplified than 00z so far. Still closing off the H5 low a little far west for my liking...but we'll see if it can slip under the confluence now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Surface low is over Eastern KY at 150 hours...moving east but this is another warm-ish solution. Maybe some snow into the area around/after 150 hrs...but warming up quickly. We'll see if it can redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is way less amplified than 00z so far. Still closing off the H5 low a little far west for my liking...but we'll see if it can slip under the confluence now. It looks exactly like the 26th, i don't think it will be enough confluence to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Pretty ugly at 156. Primary into West Virginia..secondary having trouble developing. The 84 and 156 hour panels look pretty darn similar at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Primary goes to Pitt...secondary over eastern Va. 850's are torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It looks exactly like the 26th, i don't think it will be enough confluence to save us It's still far enough out in time for me to not be too worried about this solution yet. The models have been jumping around more than ever with this active pattern...so many shortwaves/pieces of energy in the flow and now they're having to deal with some blocking too. I would think the confluence would be stronger than the Euro is indicating...but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Secondary goes over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 90hrs and 162 hours...surface low in the same spot, same result. Nice hit for Albany/Upstate NY and Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run trended way less amplified from last night...so one can hope that the Euro is catching on to the idea that the previous storm will get caught up a bit over Newfoundland and the energy diving south will get forced underneath it. If that happens we're game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's still far enough out in time for me to not be too worried about this solution yet. The models have been jumping around more than ever with this active pattern...so many shortwaves/pieces of energy in the flow and now they're having to deal with some blocking too. I would think the confluence would be stronger than the Euro is indicating...but I guess we'll see. John you starting to worry about this winter..the alarm bells just went off a few minutes ago..first time this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro just keeps getting warmer too from days 6-10 each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Cold & dry then warm & wet, repeat! Looks like the 26-27th & 29th storm do the same thing, track and all. See if after that we get a storm track further E to get the area in a better position for some snow, but we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 John you starting to worry about this winter..the alarm bells just went off a few minutes ago..first time this year I'm not worried yet. I still think we're going to have a good period through the first few weeks of January. But there definitely is going to be a relaxation of the pattern after that...and if we haven't gotten any snow by that point (highly unlikely, but possible with some bad luck) ...then I'll be worried. Because then we'll be waiting on the stratosphere to warm and change things up again in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You are not taking any storm to the east coast with trof after trof banging into the west coast every 3 days. The natural reaction is for the jet to buckle in response to the ridge. The neg pna neg nao not wrking. It will get cold in between systems. But with ths.set up gona b hard not to drive the first center up west. We nd the pac to slow down. Theres plenty of cold air waiting to b pulled but i see thngs from a pac point of view. Gotta slow that flow down it is lose storm after storm as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm not worried yet. I still think we're going to have a good period through the first few weeks of January. But there definitely is going to be a relaxation of the pattern after that...and if we haven't gotten any snow by that point (highly unlikely, but possible with some bad luck) ...then I'll be worried. Because then we'll be waiting on the stratosphere to warm and change things up again in Feb. reason is..it's finding ways not to snow..I mean really we should be getting something on Christmas eve,but either this is not right or that's not right..seems like this year things need to be perfect to even get cold weather in here..just an observation following NYC weather for over 45 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO trending warmer in LR because its losing the NAO block and the northern energy is diving into the West....I can't take much more of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO trending warmer in LR because its losing the NAO block and the northern energy is diving into the West....I can't take much more of this The Euro has an arctic airmass sitting over New England at 200 hours...not sure what you're looking at. -20 850 temperatures...the PV is basically sitting north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 reason is..it's finding ways not to snow..I mean really we should be getting something on Christmas eve,but either this is not right or that's not right..seems like this year things need to be perfect to even get cold weather in here..just an observation following NYC weather for over 45 years I agree...I've been thinking the same thing. But its important to remember that the pattern isn't ready yet. We're still making our way out of a really bad pattern. Coming off of last year makes it seem a whole lot worse. We'll get there eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro has an arctic airmass sitting over New England at 200 hours...not sure what you're looking at. -20 850 temperatures...the PV is basically sitting north of Maine. Its had this before at Day 7 three days ago now its pushed back. The Euro has actially flown under the radar quite significantly with a cold bias the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its had this before at Day 7 three days ago now its pushed back. The Euro has actially flown under the radar quite significantly with a cold bias the last few years. It"s always been after the second big storm that it gets cold with a PNA spike. Not sure what you're talking about. Sounds like the Euro has held onto the cold New Year's idea that it had last run...GFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It"s always been after the second big storm that it gets cold with a PNA spike. Not sure what you're talking about. Sounds like the Euro has held onto the cold New Year's idea that it had last run...GFS agrees. I think what he means is that it has tendency to blast in arctic air in the 7-10 day range (i.e. -18C or < 850s) that never actually come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I dont know why so many focus on the nao or that theres a pv in new england. You cut storms in this case because the pacific flow is too fast.it will mean the storm.cuts and the primary stays strong enough long enough that when it secondaries too late. Yes theres a block but too little for us with all due respect the atlantic is a child compared to the pacific. Theres plenty of cold air in canada and will swing in and out in a progressive way unless u spike the pna. Which u r not. Every 3 days systems r being driven into cali. The wave lenghts r short and any system takes aim at the lakes. U hav to trust me on ths unless u slow the pacific and elongate the wave lengths by spiking the pna gona b hard to drive a center to the se coast and then up. Merry xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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