EastCoast NPZ Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When are the next soundings available at IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When are the next soundings available at IAD? 7AM soundings http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 7AM soundings http://weather.unisy...w/skew_KIAD.txt Thanks. I'm learning to interpret these things.... It looks like there is a pretty warm layer from 835 to 1000 mb. At least the dewpoints there are below freezing, so would that be enough to save us? Next question: will there be another sounding later in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Per CWG sleet pinging off windows in Stafford County now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Fredricksburg,VA reporting -SN. Way farther south than the models are outputting. Doubt it will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Poor visibility on I81 and mod snow around Harrisonburg. Grass coated per web cams. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 started as sleet, now all snow in CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A friend in Fredericksburg, east of I95 about 6 miles reports onset of heavy sleet than changed to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 From Twister, the 12Z NAM sounding gives me Wes' two hours of flakes/flurries/snow showers. The Twister site is fun because it is possible to move the location marker to your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. I'm 39.8 so I'm not very excited here in Calvert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 if you look at the sim radar on the NAM, it comes as a thump, which is what dynamically (and dramatically all things considered) cools the atmosphere I think the decent snow lasts for 2-4 hours depending on location and outright luck after that, some light rain or drizzle to remind us where we live on this planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Stafford and Fredricksburg are back to rain. No surprises there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. Chill, I'm about 10 miles NW of you......I would think if you're feeling good, then I should feel even better....correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Flurries in Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Jason's CWG forecast. I think it's a pretty good one. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 21z from 12z GFS looks intriguing... but damn BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MineralFrosty Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sleet/Rain started at 8:30 here in Louisa temp was 36, snow began mixing in and changed to all snow at 33, now back to Sleet/Rain at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 21z from 12z GFS looks intriguing... but damn BL thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 thanks for the update Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sleet/Rain started at 8:30 here in Louisa temp was 36, snow began mixing in and changed to all snow at 33, now back to Sleet/Rain at 36 Thanks for the Observation! Sounds right with the first precip. having the lowest wet-bulb before modifying. Interesting that your getting a sleet/rain mix, I wonder where in the column that shallow layer is still below freezing. It should change over to all rain shortly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MineralFrosty Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks for the Observation! Sounds right with the first precip. having the lowest wet-bulb before modifying. Interesting that your getting a sleet/rain mix, I wonder where in the column that shallow layer is still below freezing. It should change over to all rain shortly though. It sure did, quickly, definitely a nice surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like we may have something here in Leesburg in about an hour...maybe a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like we may have something here in Leesburg in about an hour...maybe a bit less RAP says it will take a little to get organized...actually has a somewhat prolonged event....maybe 5-7 hours I could see you getting 2" out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Token WWA for Loudoun, Fredrick and Carroll. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1118 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 MDZ004-005-VAZ042-250030- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-121225T0100Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...LEESBURG 1118 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET. * PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE INCH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 RAP says it will take a little to get organized...actually has a somewhat prolonged event....maybe 5-7 hours I could see you getting 2" out of this Would be sweet!!...this first batch is small but looks to be building. I know the NAM didn't have the bulk in here until after 2pm or so. I hope we all see some flakes today though...it is pretty cold out so the holiday feel is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Would be sweet!!...this first batch is small but looks to be building. I know the NAM didn't have the bulk in here until after 2pm or so. I hope we all see some flakes today though...it is pretty cold out so the holiday feel is there what's your temp?...I am 39 downtown....which makes me think it might suck here...Are you holding at 35 or less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 what's your temp?...I am 39 downtown....which makes me think it might suck here...Are you holding at 35 or less? Weatherbug station across the street is at 33 and JYO is at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm looking at the dual-pol cross section in GR2AE just south of LWX and I can't find a melting layer. Zdr and CC says it's frozen all the way through to at least 700ft AGL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Snowing here in Centreville! Started as big flakes, no sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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