mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is a bit wetter for today as in more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is a bit wetter for today Keeps the 850 0c line south of DCA through 00z tonight and much of the precip Too bad BL is in upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Keeps the 850 0c line south of DCA through 00z tonight and much of the precip Too bad BL is in upper 30s we should all see "some snow" today places like Manchester are probably guaranteed an official white Christmas but I'll be happy to just see it falling from the sky and won't interfere with the holiday plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 we should all see "some snow" today places like Manchester are probably guaranteed an official white Christmas but I'll be happy to just see it falling from the sky and won't interfere with the holiday plans The soundings for Leesburg and Frederick at 21Z look pretty good with surface temps only 33 or 34.....dc lis warm at the surface with temps in the upper 30s. That may get us wet flakes but also could be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The soundings for Leesburg and Frederick at 21Z look pretty good with surface temps only 33 or 34.....dc lis warm at the surface with temps in the upper 30s. That may get us wet flakes but also could be rain. All rain is wet flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 IMHO, It's game over for anyone below the fall line / SE of 95.. if people in these areas (ie. AA/PG/DC) start as rain, its going to be all rain. If your NW of 95 and you start as snow, then you may have an hour (more NW) to see flakes. Fredrick, Carroll, York and Lancaster are best lined up to see 2+ hours of snow before changing over later in the evening. Still sticking with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All rain is wet flakes. True but sloppy flakes are also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All rain is wet flakes. So now you think you are smarter than Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 we are going to be ok...it is snowing near CHO..... Still -ZR here in Lewisburg WV and -SN at KSHD aka Staunton Va according to Obs there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When are the next soundings available at IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When are the next soundings available at IAD? 7AM soundings http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 7AM soundings http://weather.unisy...w/skew_KIAD.txt Thanks. I'm learning to interpret these things.... It looks like there is a pretty warm layer from 835 to 1000 mb. At least the dewpoints there are below freezing, so would that be enough to save us? Next question: will there be another sounding later in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Per CWG sleet pinging off windows in Stafford County now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Fredricksburg,VA reporting -SN. Way farther south than the models are outputting. Doubt it will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Poor visibility on I81 and mod snow around Harrisonburg. Grass coated per web cams. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 started as sleet, now all snow in CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A friend in Fredericksburg, east of I95 about 6 miles reports onset of heavy sleet than changed to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 From Twister, the 12Z NAM sounding gives me Wes' two hours of flakes/flurries/snow showers. The Twister site is fun because it is possible to move the location marker to your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. I'm 39.8 so I'm not very excited here in Calvert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 if you look at the sim radar on the NAM, it comes as a thump, which is what dynamically (and dramatically all things considered) cools the atmosphere I think the decent snow lasts for 2-4 hours depending on location and outright luck after that, some light rain or drizzle to remind us where we live on this planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Stafford and Fredricksburg are back to rain. No surprises there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like surface temps drop about 2 degrees at onset from evap. I'm feeling pretty good. I'm only 35-36. Everybody n-w of 95 will mostly likely be all snow until it tapers but who cares at that point. I'm going for a big dog walk in the woods later. Can't wait. Chill, I'm about 10 miles NW of you......I would think if you're feeling good, then I should feel even better....correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Flurries in Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Jason's CWG forecast. I think it's a pretty good one. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 21z from 12z GFS looks intriguing... but damn BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MineralFrosty Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sleet/Rain started at 8:30 here in Louisa temp was 36, snow began mixing in and changed to all snow at 33, now back to Sleet/Rain at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 thanks for the update Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sleet/Rain started at 8:30 here in Louisa temp was 36, snow began mixing in and changed to all snow at 33, now back to Sleet/Rain at 36 Thanks for the Observation! Sounds right with the first precip. having the lowest wet-bulb before modifying. Interesting that your getting a sleet/rain mix, I wonder where in the column that shallow layer is still below freezing. It should change over to all rain shortly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MineralFrosty Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks for the Observation! Sounds right with the first precip. having the lowest wet-bulb before modifying. Interesting that your getting a sleet/rain mix, I wonder where in the column that shallow layer is still below freezing. It should change over to all rain shortly though. It sure did, quickly, definitely a nice surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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