Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ^I'll take it happily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Would you at least agree that it's more likely than not that we see snow fall for a time? At least West of 95? It looks that way to me but it's awful close. I had fun walking the dog in the flurry last week. Such a sad state of affairs. Lol I thought that is what I agreed with. The NAM suggests that DC would changeover but not out towards Frederick. Looks like the GFS is colder or faster looking at Matt's GFS sounding. At any rate, that's our best shot at conversational snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, since we're within 24 hrs... a bit of an observation. Clear skies are really radiating down the temps faster than modeled, the 18z NAM at this hour had the area ~40 degrees and its 32 at IAD/FDK/GAI and areas surrounding BWI. The low for the area by the NAM was ~32 but we're already at that in most areas. What I would do for a tethered balloon to see if it's just a steep inversion or some actual cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That area in the lower right that says none....that's where Wes lives Just messing with you Wes...hugs and kisses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Corn fuel screwzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Corn fuel screwzone The edges of snow vs. no snow looks like a ripped piece of paper...I feel bad for the people that live in the grooves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z NAM looks a tad colder... I think we'll see an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is cold....32 for IAD and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z NAM looks a tad colder... I think we'll see an inch or so. it has a bias is the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is cold....32 for IAD and west Jason and I talked and are scurrying to get our a short piece saying now expect snow across the DC area except down where I live and that some of the western suburbs may see an inch or two. The sounding I looked at had surface temps around 33 or so but with a wet bulb of freezing out towards IAD and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0Z NAM....getting better (relatively speaking, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. Heck you should see snow which is what you were hoping for....Ji and guys west of us may see their 1st inch. Maybe you see your first coating. I'll see my typical calvert county rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. You're already at 28 degrees.. no need to chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Jason and I talked and are scurrying to get our a short piece saying now expect snow across the DC area except down where I live and that some of the western suburbs may see an inch or two. The sounding I looked at had surface temps around 33 or so but with a wet bulb of freezing out towards IAD and points west. nice....here is the NAM at IAD at 4pm when it should be snowing decently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Heck you should see snow which is what you were hoping for....Ji and guys west of us may see their 1st inch. Maybe you see your first coating. I'll see my typical calvert county rain. I like optimistic Wes! I'm confident enough to see some decent rates and flakes for sure. Major victory all things considered. But an inch of accum appears to be reserved for the west and parrs ridge crew. I have a really good friend in Ches Beach who invited me over for lunch...and I took a pass because of flake probabilities...do I have issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You're already at 28 degrees.. no need to chill I don't know if there will be +SN, but there could be.....it could also bust horribly....but +SN on 12/24 will stick on the streets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Figures, flips just in time to screw my forecast royally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I like optimistic Wes! I'm confident enough to see some decent rates and flakes for sure. Major victory all things considered. But an inch of accum appears to be reserved for the west and parrs ridge crew. I have a really good friend in Ches Beach who invited me over for lunch...and I took a pass because of flake probabilities...do I have issues? <34 and +SN will stick easily....not sure if we will get heavy snow...but even 1/2 mi snow should stick out west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Figures, flips just in time to screw my forecast royally Euro was still coldish.. Don't bail on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Figures, flips just in time to screw my forecast royally The NAM has a bad cold bias as I'm sure you know..this could totally bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 LWX is calling for up to 1/2" at IAD...Also I am pretty confident IAD will achieve its forecast low of 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chris87....time for you to speak up....no more browsing...what say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chris87....time for you to speak up....no more browsing...what say you? you're such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess if it snows enough and there is still some on the ground on Tuesday then that would technically be a white Christmas...fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 In NC for the week and honestly haven't seen much data...0z NAM looks decent for flakes but ill defer to others on this one...hope you guys see a good period of flakes tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 you're such a weenie we battled last winter over a marginal scenario and I think he was right, so I wanted his opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BWI definitely starts as snow and is all snow for the first 3 hrs at least, but the atmosphere slowly warms below 900mb so it definitely goes to dz/lt rain before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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