Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Might not mean much but I like seeing the area of vorticity showing up on the 12z NAM around the TN/AL border. That's one way to get heavier rates. It's already showing @ hr 27. Kinda warm @ 850 though. If the 850 low forms further south on this run then it gets very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 And if you look at the same point in time from hr 30 12z and the last 3 runs, the trend @ 500 is definitely better. Not to be implied as "good for us" yet but definitely better. We can't just have a little wound up vort pass north and expect much. Now we are seing the vort to the north being modeled much weaker and the area to the south of us being stronger. Can't really complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM says most of us at least see some snow, but not much of an accumulation better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Might not mean much but I like seeing the area of vorticity showing up on the 12z NAM around the TN/AL border. That's one way to get heavier rates. It's already showing @ hr 27. Kinda warm @ 850 though. If the 850 low forms further south on this run then it gets very interesting. Hr 33 and 36 on NAM have 850 line further SW almost wedged....looking back it appears better than anything I saw prior...that line has always been north of us...maybe we get a flake or two out of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GFS has that little wedge of colder air and a weak little vortmax that stays to our south. Even gets DC and Wes in the wet snow. It's gon' snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GFS has that little wedge of colder air and a weak little vortmax that stays to our south. Even gets DC and Wes in the wet snow. It's gon' snow Wes is reading this post right now and he has a comment. Stand by for pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wes is reading this post right now and he has a comment. Stand by for pain. seems the 850's drop by evaporational cooling but the surface still is mid-upper 30's (guess based on NCEP map) that's my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This was Christmas day 2010...I would take this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Mood flakes is a total win imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's probably snow at 33 hours though it is winding down at that point...with sfc in the mid 30s....will be nice to look at if it happens....it is a quick mover....like a 3 hour event? If I can walk the neighborhood tomorrow evening or night looking at Christmas light displays with a steady snow falling, I'd be more than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This actually is the event that gives us the better shot as seeing some flakes though the surface temps in the city get well into the 30s. I don't see much hope for the boxing day storm except for ice out in the hinterlands and even then it might not last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It will be later in Baltimore...but it mainly falls between noon and 4 according to GFS in DC....at KJYO at 3pm, 850 temp is -0.6 and sfc is 35...it is probably lt snow or rain/snow...the column is below freezing until you get to maybe 975mb....so maybe there will be some conversational flakes...I'm guessing it starts as rain.... I wish that there was a better station near here to get soundings. Either way, I'll take whatever frozen I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The nam looking colder, at least at the 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well, not sure if it's colder, but at least it maintained from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Decent area of .25 just n & w of 95. Looks like all snow but surface temps above freezing till you get pretty far West. Even then it looks like precip would be over. If you take the run for what it is, someone gets a slushy inch. Sure would be fun to see a couple hours of snow falling from the sky wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM soundings for tomorrow are basically isothermal at or just below freezing from 850 to 975 for IAD and BWI at 21z tomorrow. DCA is (of course) just a fraction of a degree warmer. By 0z, temps have cooled above 900, but warmed below, to around 1-2C. I'd say probably slushy snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM soundings for tomorrow are basically isothermal at or just below freezing from 850 to 975 for IAD and BWI at 21z tomorrow. DCA is (of course) just a fraction of a degree warmer. By 0z, temps have cooled above 900, but warmed below, to around 1-2C. I'd say probably slushy snow ending as light rain/drizzle. IMHO, It's game over for anyone below the fall line / SE of 95.. if people in these areas (ie. AA/PG/DC) start as rain, its going to be all rain. If your NW of 95 and you start as snow, then you may have an hour (more NW) to see flakes. Fredrick, Carroll, York and Lancaster are best lined up to see 2+ hours of snow before changing over later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM verbatim implies some deck accumulation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 this storm looks like our best chance....there should be more talk about this one and less about the torrential rainer I agree, the only problem is the boundary layer but it is our best shot at seeing flakes and maybe getting stuff on grass out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM soundings for tomorrow are basically isothermal at or just below freezing from 850 to 975 for IAD and BWI at 21z tomorrow. DCA is (of course) just a fraction of a degree warmer. By 0z, temps have cooled above 900, but warmed below, to around 1-2C. I'd say probably slushy snow ending as light rain/drizzle. That would be my guess after seeing the nam. I didn't look at the GFS. too much football to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Snow? I'd love to see it now that I'm home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 That would be my guess after seeing the nam. I didn't look at the GFS. too much football to watch. Would you at least agree that it's more likely than not that we see snow fall for a time? At least West of 95? It looks that way to me but it's awful close. I had fun walking the dog in the flurry last week. Such a sad state of affairs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 since nobody posted it, here's the 18Z NAM at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ^I'll take it happily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Would you at least agree that it's more likely than not that we see snow fall for a time? At least West of 95? It looks that way to me but it's awful close. I had fun walking the dog in the flurry last week. Such a sad state of affairs. Lol I thought that is what I agreed with. The NAM suggests that DC would changeover but not out towards Frederick. Looks like the GFS is colder or faster looking at Matt's GFS sounding. At any rate, that's our best shot at conversational snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, since we're within 24 hrs... a bit of an observation. Clear skies are really radiating down the temps faster than modeled, the 18z NAM at this hour had the area ~40 degrees and its 32 at IAD/FDK/GAI and areas surrounding BWI. The low for the area by the NAM was ~32 but we're already at that in most areas. What I would do for a tethered balloon to see if it's just a steep inversion or some actual cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That area in the lower right that says none....that's where Wes lives Just messing with you Wes...hugs and kisses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Corn fuel screwzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Corn fuel screwzone The edges of snow vs. no snow looks like a ripped piece of paper...I feel bad for the people that live in the grooves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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