Nikolai Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z NAM looks a tad colder... I think we'll see an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 2:14 AM, zwyts said: Nam is cold....32 for IAD and west Jason and I talked and are scurrying to get our a short piece saying now expect snow across the DC area except down where I live and that some of the western suburbs may see an inch or two. The sounding I looked at had surface temps around 33 or so but with a wet bulb of freezing out towards IAD and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0Z NAM....getting better (relatively speaking, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 2:47 AM, Bob Chill said: Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. Heck you should see snow which is what you were hoping for....Ji and guys west of us may see their 1st inch. Maybe you see your first coating. I'll see my typical calvert county rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 2:47 AM, Bob Chill said: Nam is looking ok but the surface is prob too cool and its not like its cold to begin with. Surface flow is light throughout and mostly has an easterly component. Would be nicer to see more n - ne considering how marginal everything is. Someone should get a period of some nice looking rates even if stickage isn't there. You're already at 28 degrees.. no need to chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 2:57 AM, usedtobe said: Heck you should see snow which is what you were hoping for....Ji and guys west of us may see their 1st inch. Maybe you see your first coating. I'll see my typical calvert county rain. I like optimistic Wes! I'm confident enough to see some decent rates and flakes for sure. Major victory all things considered. But an inch of accum appears to be reserved for the west and parrs ridge crew. I have a really good friend in Ches Beach who invited me over for lunch...and I took a pass because of flake probabilities...do I have issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Figures, flips just in time to screw my forecast royally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:08 AM, Scuddz said: Figures, flips just in time to screw my forecast royally Euro was still coldish.. Don't bail on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:12 AM, zwyts said: Chris87....time for you to speak up....no more browsing...what say you? you're such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess if it snows enough and there is still some on the ground on Tuesday then that would technically be a white Christmas...fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 In NC for the week and honestly haven't seen much data...0z NAM looks decent for flakes but ill defer to others on this one...hope you guys see a good period of flakes tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BWI definitely starts as snow and is all snow for the first 3 hrs at least, but the atmosphere slowly warms below 900mb so it definitely goes to dz/lt rain before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ll cold is definitely better than I thought for so early in the evening. 28.5 in the yard under clear skies. Doubt it drops more than another degree. Obs to the n & w are colder. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:17 AM, leesburg 04 said: I guess if it snows enough and there is still some on the ground on Tuesday then that would technically be a white Christmas...fingers crossed The official definition is at least 1" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:29 AM, Yeoman said: The official definition is at least 1" on the ground. Unofficially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:31 AM, leesburg 04 said: Unofficially can't do that, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 nice dry air around the area this evening http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not sure why, but it is ridiculously warm in Frederick even with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:34 AM, Solo2 said: Not sure why, but it is ridiculously warm in Frederick even with clear skies. I noticed Martinsburg was 42 last hour I even checked to see if it just hadn't reported, but that was a current temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:31 AM, leesburg 04 said: Unofficially Agreed. The fact that there's some official definition of a white Christmas is kind of ridiculous. It's an emotional thing, and if someone is happy with a few flurries or a T on the ground, then that should be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS looks a lot like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM has cold bias-- we went from not even close to an inch of snow WAY down here. (Not the elevations to my NW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:37 AM, mitchnick said: I noticed Martinsburg was 42 last hour I even checked to see if it just hadn't reported, but that was a current temp It's just warm in N. MD. Manchester is warm too and Hagerstwon is mostly reporting upper 30's. It's 37.7 here now...up from 31 a few hours ago. Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:51 AM, zwyts said: GFS the same except 95 degrees at the surface yet, GFS is colder with the Chill storm than NAM go figu' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 3:44 AM, zwyts said: GFS is fine...just warmer at the surface GFS is just as cool down here-- for days I thought we had NO shot at snow tomorrow. (maybe a little onset sleet) At the very least, the kids and I could drive up to sharp top and see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ill take the under but we can chalk it up to me waving to it as i head toward cruising altitude around 11a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 LWX seems quite unimpressed with seeing any flakes today...need some holiday magic I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I could see that whole complex sliding to our South...models are fairly dry for the most part anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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