Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 By popular demand. Don't think I've ever started a storm thread. Maybe I'll bring some luck. Early thoughts, gonna be very boderline / marginal with temps, rates, and totals but these little vorts have overperformed many times in the past. Let's will that little bugger south and have a white Christmas around here for once! Or even some mood flakes. I'm not picky anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good idea .. thread for drizzle obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 And the gfs says vort track through OH & PA with a couple flakes upfront maybe but rain for most south of the mason dixon. Not ideal placements of either the 500 vort or the 850 low but who knows. It's so small that you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:44 PM, Bob Chill said: By popular demand. Don't think I've ever started a storm thread. Maybe I'll bring some luck. Early thoughts, gonna be very boderline / marginal with temps, rates, and totals but these little vorts have overperformed many times in the past. Let's will that little bugger south and have a white Christmas around here for once! Or even some mood flakes. I'm not picky anymore. Nam takes it north of Dc and has the area too warm for snow. Maybe you are the new Ji. These type vorts usually need to track south of us to do us any good in terms of snow. For mood flakes with this storm you might do better with a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:48 PM, Ian said: Good idea .. thread for drizzle obs lol- if it wasn't for the date itself I probably wouldn't be invested at all but at least we can keep the bigger event thread concise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:51 PM, usedtobe said: Nam takes it north of Dc and has the area too warm for snow. Maybe you are the new Ji. These type vorts usually need to track south of us to do us any good in terms of snow. For mood flakes with this storm you might do better with a mirror. LOL- oh you're killing me.. This thread is more for the benefit of keeping the big storm talk concise anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:52 PM, Bob Chill said: LOL- oh you're killing me.. This thread is more for the benefit of keeping the big storm talk concise anyways. Well, the gfs could always come in colder and farther south with the track of the low and vort so it's probably only a mostly dead event except for north of the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:51 PM, usedtobe said: Nam takes it north of Dc and has the area too warm for snow. Maybe you are the new Ji. These type vorts usually need to track south of us to do us any good in terms of snow. For mood flakes with this storm you might do better with a mirror. We trust nam this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 3:54 PM, Ji said: We trust nam this far out? No kidding. I thought the wheelhouse is 20 mins after the storm starts right? that was a funny post btw. had to borrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the gfs is right and all guidance says the same thing through 0z tonight.....I want this thread deleted...and probably my account too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 4:39 PM, Bob Chill said: If the gfs is right and all guidance says the same thing through 0z tonight.....I want this thread deleted...and probably my account too. Unfortunately the GFS has the same warm look as the NAm for the xmas special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 4:43 PM, usedtobe said: Unfortunately the GFS has the same warm look as the NAm for the xmas special. It's been nice knowing you Wes. You've taught me the majority of what I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pretty sure this thread is the reason for the GFS debacle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 4:59 PM, leesburg 04 said: Pretty sure this thread is the reason for the GFS debacle... True and its chill's first thread. If he wants to remain a member judging by his depression in posts he'll delete this topic immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 5:01 PM, ddweatherman said: True and its chill's first thread. If he wants to remain a member judging by his depression in posts he'll delete this topic immediately Nah, zero to hero. All or none. Euro gon rock us! Hope everybody bought sleds for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 5:04 PM, Bob Chill said: Nah, zero to hero. All or none. Euro gon rock us! Hope everybody bought sleds for Xmas. I bought a new lawnmower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I see ukie at 120 has a 987 low near BM... 96 had 997 NW of ATL so not sure if where it transfers for a 108 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm not sure about the karma involved with changing a storm thread in mid stream. Might work in our favor....first Christmas Eve and then ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is still colder and souther of the other models. Marginal but might be flakey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cuts precip in like half though.. so, marginal with no rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 anyone notice the Wunderground Euro snowfall maps had most of us getting an inch of snow on Christmas Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 8:23 PM, mitchnick said: anyone notice the Wunderground Euro snowfall maps had most of us getting an inch of snow on Christmas Eve? It's not hard to believe, but I don't like the prospects. Euro is cooler of models and still has 540 to our N and only 850 to our S. It's possible, and we might see snow falling from the sky, but other than that not sure. This has wavered on a small scale like the chill storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 8:26 PM, ddweatherman said: It's not hard to believe, but I don't like the prospects. Euro is cooler of models and still has 540 to our N and only 850 to our S. It's possible, and we might see snow falling from the sky, but other than that not sure. This has wavered on a small scale like the chill storm. If the vort goes north of us, I doubt we see snow at all. Plus I don't trust the euro clown maps as they would have already given us snow twice this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On 12/22/2012 at 8:28 PM, usedtobe said: If the vort goes north of us, I doubt we see snow at all. Plus I don't trust the euro clown maps as they would have already given us snow twice this year. Exactly Wes, the vort goes to our N and that doesn't appear to be trending in our favor. If it was a clipper in succession of an arctic front maybe, but not this. NAM almost acts like its a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18Z GFS paints a pretty dreary picture weather-wise for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Have people given up on this? 6z NAM and 0z Euro look good enough for folks north of DC to at least get some mood flakes up to 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 On 12/23/2012 at 12:44 PM, WxUSAF said: Have people given up on this? 6z NAM and 0z Euro look good enough for folks north of DC to at least get some mood flakes up to 1". I haven't. The trends on this one seem better. Even the NAM is showing snow now. I dont think it had ever shown much for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ukie likes this one too. I can't tell what the Euro is showing, but it would appear to at least be cold enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Would be amazing to see the trends continue back in our favor. 100s of weenies will be climbing back up the mountain after yesterdays long dive off the the cliff. 12z will be extremely fascinating, more so than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro does show a bit of snow in the air Monday evening around Leesburg...NAM is a cold cold 33 and rain...could be a mangled flake in there I suppose. GFS keeps going from dry to wet but always rain...0z was dry 6z wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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