SmokeEater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Up to 4 TW's now, one just west of New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 SPC keeps MDT Risk at 20Z, but cuts it from KHEZ-KLFT eastward: Surprised me they kept the MDT in a way...but in another way it's expected given the convection going up and potential limiting factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Watch out for TOR cells developing well within the warm sector along yet another convergence boundary between KMCB and KHBG... OU, as far as "limiting factors" re: discrete supercells, I do not see any...can you point some out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Radar Update for you all RadarScope with the new addition of the ability to draw on it makes this a perfect app in these dangerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Major TOR player in warm sector is potentially developing near KHDC, LA...it will track NE parallel to the front and will be in a position to become rooted in the boundary layer well ahead of the cold front. Shear profile strongly favors discrete, right-moving splitters. The southern part of the QLCS is already breaking into discrete supercells as it enters this volatile environment. TORNADO WARNING LAC103-105-117-252045- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0095.121225T2007Z-121225T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 207 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND... WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FRANKLINTON...BOGALUSA... * UNTIL 245 PM CST * AT 204 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HAMMOND... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROBERT...FOLSOM AND ENON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A mini-supercell east of Tuscaloosa has a circulation. It looks interesting so far away from the other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LMK adds northern tier of counties into the Blizzard Warning. Hope it verifies. Edit: oops wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Watch out for TOR cells developing well within the warm sector along yet another convergence boundary between KMCB and KHBG... OU, as far as "limiting factors" re: discrete supercells, I do not see any...can you point some out? Instability is somewhat limited given the time of year, additionally there's been some convection (crapvection) in portions of the warm sector that could potentially inhibit severity of storms that do develop. I can understand their reluctance to not go high risk. Lack of daytime heating in just a couple hours. Don't misunderstand what I'm saying, the environment is favorable for supercell development. I think there will definitely be some significant severe weather, but enough to warrant a high risk? only time will tell, I can understand their reluctance to do so. But like Is aid earlier, conditions seem to warrant the upgrade...but I don't work at SPC for a reason, they're hte professionals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The storms are linear at this point, the discrete cells ahead of the line are too tightly packed to produce long track tornadoes. HRRR keeps it this way. I am done rooting for tornadoes. Never call bust so early into an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Instability is somewhat limited given the time of year, additionally there's been some convection (crapvection) in portions of the warm sector that could potentially inhibit severity of storms that do develop. I can understand their reluctance to not go high risk. Lack of daytime heating in just a couple hours. The warm front is already north of TUR-JAN-MEI with very solid daytime heating occurring in the warm sector. Temperatures in the low 70s with Tds near 62-64°F are, in a wintertime situation, more than sufficient to sustain a High Risk-caliber TOR outbreak, given the extreme synoptic shear parameters in place. History shows this. TORNADO WARNING LAC051-057-089-095-252100- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0096.121225T2017Z-121225T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 217 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KENNER... NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE... SOUTH CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 300 PM CST * AT 217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RACELAND... OR 8 MILES NORTH OF HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DES ALLEMANDS...BOUTTE...NEW SARPY...DESTREHAN...NORCO AND WAGGAMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Never call bust so early into an event. Still no big cells. Most of the waarned cells are small cluster cells or embedded in the MCS. Really wasn't meant to be a cancellation of the event. Was just pulling the EF2+ risk back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The warm front is already north of TUR-JAN-MEI with very solid daytime heating occurring in the warm sector. Temperatures in the low 70s with Tds near 62-64°F are, in a wintertime situation, more than sufficient to sustain a High Risk-caliber TOR outbreak, given the extreme synoptic shear parameters in place. History shows this. TORNADO WARNING LAC051-057-089-095-252100- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0096.121225T2017Z-121225T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 217 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KENNER... NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAHNVILLE... SOUTH CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 300 PM CST * AT 217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RACELAND... OR 8 MILES NORTH OF HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DES ALLEMANDS...BOUTTE...NEW SARPY...DESTREHAN...NORCO AND WAGGAMAN Like I said, I think conditions warrant the upgrade... The stuff going up W and SW of KLIX almost all have on degree of rotation at the mid levels. Several of them tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still no big cells. Most of the waarned cells are small cluster cells or embedded in the MCS. Really wasn't meant to be a cancellation of the event. Was just pulling the EF2+ risk back a bit. No. The risk is as high as ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Cell SW of NO is rotation nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NOLA live stream http://www.wwltv.com/news/live-video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Best I could get of NO storm. When younguys post images, can you tell me what type and tilt they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 241 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLINTON... * UNTIL 315 PM CST * AT 239 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SLAUGHTER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Cell in St. Tammany Parish has evolved into a large supercell and it probably become a major threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tornado was reported in this warning... 000 WFUS54 KLIX 252038 TORLIX LAC077-125-MSC157-252115- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0098.121225T2038Z-121225T2115Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 238 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ROADS... WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE... SOUTHERN WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 315 PM CST * AT 234 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BATCHELOR...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MELVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MORGANZA...WAKEFIELD...SPILLMAN AND WOODVILLE THIS STORM DID PRODUCE A TORNADO NEAR VILLE PLATTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Other cells southwest of NOLA are rapidly developing rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still nice rotation west of N.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Really spreading way ahead of the line, tornado warning in SW AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lake Charles, LA 18Z sounding 25 December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Cell in St. Tammany Parish has evolved into a large supercell and it probably become a major threat. Tornado-warned now. This is the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Big supercell north of NOLA wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Big supercell north of NOLA wrapping up. That cell is really getting it together. Unfortunately for me, my GR updates are 10 mins old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That cell is really getting it together. Unfortunately for me, my GR updates are 10 mins old Use TDWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hodographs near HBG will become even more impressive and supportive of discrete supercells over the next two hours as the surface low deepens, thereby enhancing the BRN shear index. The southern half of the QLCS is now rapidly breaking up into discrete cells as I speak--as a view of the long-term radar trends indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If there are any busts for this event, it is OKC. The further S track may bring more snow to FWD than previously expected. It certainly enhanced the severe side of this dynamic Winter Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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