Disc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks to have occluded and a new circulation is tightening up SE of Wetumpka. Edit: Weakened again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Debris ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BTW for anyone experiencing radar delays, AllisonHouse tweeted: Some idiot just launched a Denial of Service attack against our network. Ryan is flipping us over to our backup... http://fb.me/CWZ4j1dO and Radarscope relies on AllisonHouse data. Should be fixed shortly. Update: AllisonHouse LLC Due to ongoing Denial of Service attack, we are proactively taking our public facing website(s) offline so we can focus on keeping our data feeds up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what reason would anyone have in doing a DDoS attack against a weather radar data provider? that's just beyond stupid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 New strong rotation in S AL approaching Troy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 130+ kts G2G coming in on Troy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Something really bad is going into Troy in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Confirmed on the ground near the Troy Airport, which is NW of the town. Looks to me like this should have remained over rural areas by a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Mobile homes reportedly flipped in the Troy area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Entrapment being reported per WSFA near Troy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 James Spann @spann Multiple mobile homes turned over 5 miles northeast of Goshen in Pike County #alwx Josh Johnson @JoshWeather Brantley Mobile Home Park in Troy has been hit by a tornado. Rescues underway, people trapped. #alwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Very clear tornado debris signature at up to at least 13kft from KBMX...will post loop shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Very clear tornado debris signature at up to at least 13kft from KBMX...will post loop shortly. Yep. I'm having aforementioned data issues but I saw it on the 1.5 tilt past 16,000 feet, possibly past 20,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yep. I'm having aforementioned data issues but I saw it on the 1.5 tilt past 16,000 feet, possibly past 20,000. Yeah the highest I could see it with any definitive confidence is about 17kft, with a potential detection up to 27kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorky Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Josh Johnson @JoshWeather Brantley Mobile Home Park in Troy has been hit by a tornado. Rescues underway, people trapped. #alwx Looks like a substantial place with 50+ trailers packed together and even more further south. Just ESE of the airport there on google maps. Hope it managed to thread it's way through the more spread out area to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 once this tornado finally goes dissipates and spares some lives and property here, we've got a major problem in PA now. 00Z models are in, and it looks like it's going to be a lot warmer between 800 and 850hpa, at least at the bufkit data i just saw for AVP, IPT, and ABE. i'll wait on the 00Z euro on this one, but the cast for northeast PA just might have a drastic change, from 5-8" snow and 0.1 ice to 2-3" snow and 0.5" ice. let's hope the Euro and Canadian doesn't confirm what the GFS and NAM are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ryan Cartee @SkytrackerMedia Everyone in brantley trailerpark is accounted for in troy. Only minor injuries. And nobody was transported to the hospital good news #alwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Storm just Southwest of Auburn, AL as ramped up rapidly. Only SVR warned currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's a loop of the TDS from the Troy storm. You can see the sudden drop in rho-hv down all the way to 0.3 at 10kft as the circulation tightens. Once the circulation weakens, the debris signal expands in size, weakens in intensity, and becomes displaced northward (to the left). All of this is a result of the fallout of the debris as the updraft and tornado weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Possible coastal severe outbreak across the Carolinas tomorrow. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES/ROCKIES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES. MOST RELEVANT FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A CLOSED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND AN ASSOCIATED 100+ KT POLAR JET STREAK /250-300 MB/ TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES NEAR/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ...CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA... A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE QLCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/NORTH FL...WITH A LESS VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE QLCS/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND UPSTATE PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE AN EARLY DAY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXIT REGION/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AMPLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /50-80 KT 0-6 KM/ WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MAY MOVE DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND EVENTUALLY THE DELMARVA VICINITY. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT AN INFLUX OF A RELATIVELY MOIST ATLANTIC AIRMASS IN TANDEM WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. PENDING THE DETAILS/EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE EARLY DAY QLCS/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR...WITH AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. EXPECTED DEGREE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/QLCS AND ROBUST NATURE OF THE FORCING/WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...IN ADVANCE OF AN EVOLVING/NORTHEASTWARD RACING QLCS. A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY A 50-65 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 200-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THUS...TORNADOES...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING QLCS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...GA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL... A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL EXIST TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING QLCS/NEAR-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS GA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS FL AS THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SLOWLY SPREADS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's starting... Tornado warning for Wilmington, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 There's a lot of thunder and lightning in this storm for a storm in late December. Fortunately the tight couplet that was going up the Cape Fear river weakened substantially, but its still a dangerous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wilmington is 63, New Bern is 53 and the Greenville is 46, looks like the warm front is beginning to lift inland model bring it to around I 95 so all of eastern NC should be primed by early afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner (HCFCD Pro Met) concerning preliminary damage reports across E Texas and a look ahead to the unsettled pattern ahead: Progressive weather pattern over the southern US to continue. Winds still coming down after the powerhouse wind event yesterday afternoon/evening with frequent gust to 40-50mph…for the second time in less than a week. Deep surface cyclone now moving into the OH Valley with skies clearing from WSW to ENE across SE TX under continued cold air advection pattern with temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the lower 20’s. Upstream air mass passing over the snow covered plains of N TX and OK will result in little modification today as solar energy goes into snow melt instead of warming the near surface air. With this in mind and NW winds continuing through much of the day, highs will only climb into the mid to upper 40’s under mainly sunny skies. Cold tonight as winds go nearly calm and skies remain clear…although could see some high level cirrus clouds pass over the region…but these rarely prevent cooling. Most areas will see lows in the 26-32 range except for the typical warmer spots (inside the Beltway and along the coast). Coastal trough begins to take shape off the coastal bend early Thursday with a rapid increase in cloud cover as moisture is brought northward over top of the retreating cold surface dome. By afternoon isentropic lift may be enough to produce a few showers across the area. Highs will warm into the 50’s as winds turn more ESE on Thursday. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next powerful cold front. Surface trough will lift NE along the coast with light to moderate showers streaming northward out of the Gulf. Cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Current thinking is that warm unstable air mass will remain out over the Gulf waters and the warm front will not move inland and this should negate a severe weather threat…however elevated instability may be enough to produce a few strong storms on the frontal boundary. Once again windy behind this front, but not the kind of winds we saw yesterday. Should see NW 15-25mph Friday night under strong cold air advection. I am tempted to go a little colder than guidance for the weekend with the snow pack lingering to our north and fresh Canadian air pouring down the plains across this snow pack…however some degree of melting will occur between now and Friday night. Will stick with highs in the 50’s on Saturday under sunny skies and a light freeze similar to tonight on Sunday morning. New Year’s Storm System: Attention will quickly focus on another potential high impact storm system starting late Sunday and continuing through New Year’s Day. Model are having a tough time with this feature as with the Christmas Day event with the GFS more open and progressive versus the ECMWF and CMC more closed off and stronger. Given the current highly progressive flow across the US, will side toward the GFS, but the system may be somewhat slower than what this model shows. Anyhow the track of the core of the upper low/trough looks to be further south than the Christmas system which brings the threat for winter weather deeper into TX and suppresses the possible warm front closer to the coast. Parameters look to be coming together for another bout of severe weather across the area…possibly more focused deeper into the region than the past event yesterday. Still a ways off and things will no doubt change between now an early next week. Christmas Day Storm Reports: ***Damage survey will be conducted today over Houston and Trinity Counties to determine tornado intensity and damage paths)*** Madisonville, Madison: numerous trees and roofs blown off along HWY 21 (possible tornado) 9 NW Crockett, Houston: tornado report by public near Houston County Lake 13 SE Crockett, Houston: tornado damage to a building and bank on 287. Large tornado recorded on cell phone relayed to broadcast media. 15 SE Crockett, Trinity: spotter reported a tornado on the ground moving across a pasture. Lovelady, Houston: Lovelady fire chief report wind gust to 80mph Tomball, Harris: *1 fatal* Non-Thunderstorm wind gust to 50mph resulted in numerous downed trees. Man was struck and killed by falling tree. Cleveland, Liberty: Large Pine tree downed 8 miles SE of Cleveland (possible tornado) Katy, Harris: Grass fire developed late in the afternoon along Katy Hockley Cut-off Rd and Clay Rd. 3 fire departments responded due to the strong winds. No homes were threatened Corpus Christi, Live Oak: 200 acre wildfire burned 2 homes and 1 vehicle in the Hideaway Hills subdivision. Winds gusting to 50mph forced the evacuation of 90 residents as the fire spread rapidly. TX Forest service crews responded with local FD’s to bring the fire under control and saved over 50 homes Dallas, Dallas: 2-4 inches of snow recorded across the metro area. Plano: 3.0 inch snow Tuesday Wind Gust: BUSH IAH: 51 College Station: 54 Tomball: 46 Wharton: 45 Conroe: 49 Hobby Airport: 56 Brenham: 46 Bay City: 44 Galveston: 47 Lake Jackson: 46 Pearland: 51 Palacios: 53 Huntsville: 52 Bay City: 39 Victoria: 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the cell just off of wilmington has clear rotation on the radar velocities, would not be surprised to see a tornado warning issued for Onslow county as it rides northeast towards the coast; it has really ramped up the last few frames. Edit: Tornado warning for Jacksonville, I'll let yall know if I see anything lol i'm directly in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the cell just off of wilmington has clear rotation on the radar velocities, would not be surprised to see a tornado warning issued for Onslow county as it rides northeast towards the coast; it has really ramped up the last few frames. Edit: Tornado warning for Jacksonville, I'll let yall know if I see anything lol i'm directly in the path. Going to hit the beach in a pretty populated area....looks to be headed right for North Topsail Beach and then over to Sneads Ferry first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm just a little bit east of Jville so if it holds together I should be able to see it, my parents live by the beach part I went to Dixon High School where its at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm just a little bit east of Jville so if it holds together I should be able to see it, my parents live by the beach part I went to Dixon High School where its at now. Looks to go right over Sneads Ferry or just east of them, then up over Camp Lejune and towards Midway Park/Piney Green. the couplet looks to be holding together pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah it does, I'm right beside Camp Lejune and Piney Green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 SPC just downgraded the moderate risk which is a good call the warm front isnt getting inland qucik enough to make this a widespread event I dont think. Going to be confined to the eastern part of NC maybe NE corner of SC. Couplet kinda washed out a bit if it cycles it might end up right over Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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