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Major National Winter Storm Dec 25-28


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SmartCast Analysis for 25 Dec/20Z to 26 Dec 20Z ( Base on my model output only)

Full output summary uploaded (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm)

First the winter side of the storm system:

Currently Targeting McAlester to Little Rock to Hot Springs as the area with the Heaviest Snow potential. Model indicating 3-7” of snow possible in this corridor.

McAlester Region: Continued moderate to heavy snow fall till 06Z, then clearing. Looking for 3.5” of additional snowfall possible. Heaviest snow will fall between now and 23Z, with rates of around 1.0” possible.

Little Rock Region: Rain will continue till 00Z, then change over to snow til 12Z. Looking at periods of heavy snow between 01Z and 06Z. Isolated pockets of 1.5” snowfall rates will be possible in this region. Looking at a max snowfall accumulation of 6.6” possible in the Little Rock region. In addition, winds will increase to 35 to 40MPH after 03Z.

Hot Springs Region: Rain will change over to snow at 22Z, then continue til 12Z. Look for pockets of heavy snow with rates of 1.2” per hour possible. Looking at 5” of snowfall accumulation possible during the period.

Vance AFB Region: Continued snow, with periods of moderate snowfall. Looking at a general 2-3” across this region, with winds increasing to 35MPH from 15Z to 22Z.

Dallas Region: Looking for a changeover to snow around 21Z, with a potential to see 1-3” of slushy snow accumulations til 04Z, then snow diminishing. Winds will also increase to 40 to 45MPH from 22Z to 02Z.

Jonesborro Region: Snow will begin around 04Z, with pockets of moderate to heavy snow through 15Z. Snow accumulations of around 4” are possible in the region.

Severe Wx Potential:

Highest Tornado Threats:

Baton Rouge, Mobile, Lafayette, Hattiesburg and Jackson, MS with 70% chance of seeing tornadic storms within your area. In addition, hail up to 2.9” with convective winds up to 74MPH possible.

High Tornado Threat Zone

Meridain, Golden Trianlge, Gulfport, Biloxi, Greenwood have around a 60% chance of seeing tornadic storms within your area. In addition, hail up to 2.2” and convective winds gusts up to 72MPH are possible.

Upward Trend of Tornado Threat

Tuscaloosa and Montegomery areas are trending upward for tornadic threat. Currently sitting at 50 to 54% chance and increasing.

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR EAST

CENTRAL MOBILE AND WEST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 451 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION AND LIKELY

PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDTOWN

MOBILE...OR NEAR I10 AND I65...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

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