Srain Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 While the guidance remains somewhat muddled regarding the eventual storm track, it does appear we have the potential for a rather potent Winter Storm crossing the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains. Snowfall should begin across New Mexico/Colorado on the 24th and progress E across the Southern Plains into Arkansas /Southern Missouri. There are two possible societal impacts with this Winter Storm. Significant snow totals are possible N of the low track, while ahead of the frontal boundary in the warm sector, a severe potential cannot be discount. There remains a lot of uncertainty and any forecast is low confidence. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221100- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD- NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE- BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN- CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON- TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON- JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN- FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD... PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY... CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA... KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL... ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER... CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE... HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK... LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE... WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA... MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON... WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY... HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA 255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 ...WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY... WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE. SOME MODELS TAKE THE TRACK OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE OTHERS TAKE IT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THESE TRACKS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPEFULLY WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WITH THE VARIATION IN FORECAST TRACKS...EVERYONE ACROSS THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA AND THOSE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO REFINED FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK... HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE AND PREPARE FOR WEATHER-RELATED DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-220500- BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE- TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER- CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL- LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI... PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH... OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA... SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK... THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UNITED STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE WEEKEND STORM A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE TURNING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE OBSERVATION NETWORK OVER LAND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WE CAN FOCUS THE FORECAST MORE. THE BEST ASSESSMENT TODAY IS THAT SOME WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON CHRISTMAS. WE ARE CURRENTLY POSTING PRELIMINARY SNOW AMOUNT INFORMATION TO OUR DECISION SUPPORT PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA/DSP/DSP.PHP . GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS SO FAR FROM THE REGION...ANY SMALL CHANGE IN STORM TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE FORECAST CHANGES NEXT WEEK. SO WE WOULD EXPECT THE AMOUNTS WE ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING TO BE ADJUSTED A NUMBER OF TIMES AND THE LOCATION OF THE SNOW SWATH COULD EASILY SHIFT 5 COUNTIES IN ANY DIRECTION. SO FAR THE MOMENT...THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AROUND THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221200- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...BEAVER... FORGAN...DALHART...STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON... BOOKER...HIGGINS...FOLLETT...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS... BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE... WHITE DEER...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...WHEELER...HEREFORD...CANYON... CLAUDE...CLARENDON...WELLINGTON 340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 ...WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE UP TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A DALHART TO SHAMROCK LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING OF THE SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNSET CHRISTMAS NIGHT. IF YOU ARE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO BY VISITING OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA...FOLLOWING NWS AMARILLO ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR THROUGH YOUR PREFERED MEDIA OUTLET. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-220400- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL- KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS- 325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 25TH... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ASSUMING THIS TRACK VERIFIES...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...AND MAY ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BLOW AROUND IN THESE WINDS...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING AFTER SUNSET ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND ANY ASSOCIATED WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AT THIS TIME. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTTOM LINE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY. CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THESE DETAILS ARE VERY LIKELY TO CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hope this one goes farther north, which is still possible. We still need moisture here in south central Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 For our Central/Western group, we have a pinned thread on the main page and we'll continue our discussions there... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38454-major-national-winter-storm-dec-25-28/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldRIC Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I may be making a trip to Dallas on the 26th if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tornado Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/W-CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK...WRN NORTH TX CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 251702Z - 252100Z SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN/W-CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z. NLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR TO GENERATE NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS AND OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE TRENDING STRONGER THAN THE BULK OF SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING OF AN E-TX SFC LOW...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH DEPICT 0-1-KM MEAN FLOW INCREASING TO ABOVE 40 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL COLD ADVECTION AND DECREASING STATIC STABILITY IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER AGL WILL ALLOW THIS FLOW TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR...AS ADDRESSED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2208...TO GENERATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AND WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AT CLINTON OK WITH 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING TO 38 KT...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS/SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z. ACCORDINGLY...THIS BLIZZARD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED UPON COORDINATION WITH THE NORMAN OK WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. ..COHEN.. 12/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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