Severe Weather Risk 12/25-12/26

[andyhb]

D3 has 30% sig-hatched for the Carolinas.

[NavarreDon]

Pulled your post from the main board.

D3, 30% sig-hatched for the Carolinas...

[Srain]

While we have a main page thread covering the Severe/Winter threads, I wanted to encourage those that are weather to get the word out to folks that may not be following things as closely as they might otherwise do. I am concerned that with the busy Holiday period, some may not be aware of the potential tomorrow into tomorrow might. Stay safe folks in MS /AL. The severe parameters are most impressive and the possibility of a long track tornado or two is concerning. Stay Safe gang.

[buckeyefan1]

While we have a main page thread covering the Severe/Winter threads, I wanted to encourage those that are weather to get the word out to folks that may not be following things as closely as they might otherwise do. I am concerned that with the busy Holiday period, some may not be aware of the potential tomorrow into tomorrow might. Stay safe folks in MS /AL. The severe parameters are most impressive and the possibility of a long track tornado or two is concerning. Stay Safe gang.

I agree...quite impressive.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0231 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF

COAST STATES...FL PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO

MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AT DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY

SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS A SLAB OF VERY STRONG

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES FROM THE ERN GULF COAST STATES EWD ACROSS

THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING...A

WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY

WITH THIS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINING INTACT ALL THE WAY TO

THE COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/WED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN ERN NC AND

NCNTRL SC SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND

EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S F. THIS

MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN

CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEVELOPED

LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WINDS IN

THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 50 KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC

WHICH SHOULD ENABLE ANY LINE OF STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING

WIND DAMAGE. IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING

SQUALL-LINE...THEN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH COMBINED

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY SEVERE

THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BECOME ENHANCED. FOR

THIS REASON...A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY WITH A SIGNIFICANT

HATCHED AREA APPEARS WARRANTED.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...ANY SEVERE THREAT

WITH THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO WEAKENING

INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ERN GA AND NRN

FL...A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST BUT THE THREAT

SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND

DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012

[DaculaWeather]

The Atlanta AFD had this today

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

MEDIA...COULD YOU PLEASE ASK RESIDENTS CHECK THE BATTERIES IN THEIR

NOAA WX RADIOS OR INSTALL A SEVERE WEATHER ALERTING APP ON THEIR

SMART PHONES? TUE NIGHT COULD BE A LONG NIGHT. THANKS.

[jrips27]

The Atlanta AFD had this today

http://www.daculawea...m/4_afd_ffc.php

MEDIA...COULD YOU PLEASE ASK RESIDENTS CHECK THE BATTERIES IN THEIR

NOAA WX RADIOS OR INSTALL A SEVERE WEATHER ALERTING APP ON THEIR

SMART PHONES? TUE NIGHT COULD BE A LONG NIGHT. THANKS.

Wow. This is not what we need on Christmas!

[audioguy3107]

Wow. This is not what we need on Christmas!

I saw that earlier.....pretty unusual, but they do not want to get caught off guard by this one, especially given the time of year and of course being Christmas day/night. Expecting the warm front to set up somewhere over northern Georgia tomorrow afternoon, how far north it gets will be the question.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE mentions possible severe

.SHORT TERM /CHRISTMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TX TUESDAY AS S/W ENERGY DIVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO TX. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SC. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE. STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...SO COULD SEE MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT. AS THE S/W CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY...POSSIBLY MODERATELY...UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SPC DAY 3 HAS NEARLY THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG 60 KT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND GOOD WAA COULD PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS SHOWING QUITE A SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[AUProud]

Could anyone recommend a good weather alert app for my iphone? TIA

[DaculaWeather]

Could anyone recommend a good weather alert app for my iphone? TIA

James Spann said this

We recommend iMap WeatherRadio for iPhone and Android phones, and MyWarn for iPhone

[andyhb]

We need people from this forum on the main board right now, since it seems the SE is in for a very rough next couple of days.

[Disc]

Wednesday could possibly be a rough day across E and central NC and SC. (This is already noted by the SPC) Soundings from KCAE are ominous for sure and it's something we might want to keep an eye on.

[WilkesboroDude]

Wednesday could possibly be a rough day across E and central NC and SC. (This is already noted by the SPC)

I am curious to find out how far west there is a tornado chance...I know the SPC sometimes does not understand the concept of a wedge...from previous experiences.

Anyway, impressive TOR:CON for North Carolina this far in advance.

NC central, east – 5

NC west – 3 to 4

8+ Very high probability of a tornado

6 - High probability of a tornado

4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible

2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible

0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

[Disc]

I am curious to find out how far west there is a tornado chance...I know the SPC sometimes does not understand the concept of a wedge...from previous experiences.

Anyway, impressive TOR:CON for North Carolina this far in advance.

NC central, east – 5

NC west – 3 to 4

8+ Very high probability of a tornado

6 - High probability of a tornado

4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible

2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible

0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

I agree with what the SPC is showing right now to be honest. (The area from Columbia north to Charlotte and NE to Raleigh and east to the coast) The best chance in my opinion will be towards the more eastern part of the risk area, but I wouldn't rule out some rogue cell further west.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I know a lot of the TV Mets feel confident that Western North Carolina will remain stuck in a stable environment...but we need to definitely watch the trends tomorrow and see if the southern edges of the stable layer tries to erode...go no further than this past March when the Mallard Creek section of Charlotte was caught off guard from night time tornadoes that developed along a quickly eroding wedge.

[WilkesboroDude]

I know a lot of the TV Mets feel confident that Western North Carolina will remain stuck in a stable environment...but we need to definitely watch the trends tomorrow and see if the southern edges of the stable layer tries to erode...go no further than this past March when the Mallard Creek section of Charlotte was caught off guard from night time tornadoes that developed along a quickly eroding wedge.

Still could be some damaging wind potential...hail...heavy rain...thunder...in western NC. I would not be surprised at a tornado potential due north of Charlotte...in the heart of central NC.

[DaculaWeather]

Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

START: 1200Z TUE DEC 25 2012 END: 1200Z FRI DEC 28 2012 TYPE: Regional WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN/EASTERN REGIONS REASON: Severe weather and tornado potential across portions of Southern Region Christmas Day and Christmas night evolving into a significant winter storm over Eastern Region Wednesday through early Friday.

[WXinCanton]

already starting to fire up in TX and LA

[RaleighWx]

Hi guys sorry to be MIA lately, work and 4 kids have kept me pretty busy! But here is a brief discussion on the upcoming storm impacts. Hope to write more over the coming week.

http://www.examiner.com/article/severe-weather-possible-tomorrow-snow-by-this-weekend

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I'm putting this here to check on later, but my goodness does the 4km RPM fire up some nasty looking storms between Midnight-3A for eastern AL/western GA... And continues them across the state in a more solid line.

And then.... You've got the chance for flurries as far south as La Grange, according to this model run, in the middle of the afternoon... I'm not 100% buying that, but northern parts of the states may see some flakes fly! (This is the 12km RPM as the 4km only goes out 27 hours.)

[DaculaWeather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH

FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS

WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD

OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL

BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI

BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY

EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE

NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN

ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO

45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN

VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

[DaculaWeather]

PWO Issued

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_pwo.php

[calculus1]

Video from WCNC Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich concerning the severe potential on Christmas evening through day after. He mainly focuses on the Carolinas effects, but he also talks generally about the entire south.

[DaculaWeather]

Must be nice...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

1110 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH

FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY

WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS

WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD

OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH

SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY

SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ARE

EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH

BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-019-048-

260115-

/O.CON.KMEG.BZ.W.0001.121225T2100Z-121226T1500Z/

RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-

CROSS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-DYER-LAUDERDALE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...

HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...

UNION CITY...DYERSBURG

1110 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES

TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35

TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE

VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

ARZ036-048-049-058-MSZ001-007-008-010-011-TNZ003-004-020-021-

049>051-088-089-260115-

/O.CON.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.121226T0300Z-121226T1500Z/

CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-

QUITMAN-WEAKLEY-HENRY-GIBSON-CARROLL-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-

SHELBY-FAYETTE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...

SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...CLARKSDALE...MARTIN...

DRESDEN...PARIS...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON...COVINGTON...

BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...

SOMERVILLE

1110 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS

EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO

THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A BRIEF MIXTURE OF ICE

PELLETS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND

CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ON

SECONDARY ROADS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW

MORNING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO REDUCE

VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS

AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN

TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

&&

$$

SJM

[Disc]

Moderate risk for some of you SE folks.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1112 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF

THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN/CENTRAL FL AND SRN GA

NWD INTO SRN VA...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY

OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A

VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ IS FORECAST

TO MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION

DURING THE PERIOD. VERY LARGE 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 180 M

AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH 90-100 KT

500 MB WINDS AND 60-70 KT FLOW AT 850 MB.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY LOW WILL DEVELOP

OVER NRN GA AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD EAST OF THE

APPALACHIANS...MOVING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE

AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION LATER AT

NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SURGE

EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SEWD ACROSS THE FL

PENINSULA...MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. A

WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NC COAST SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL

GRADUALLY LIFT NWD...EXTENDING FROM NERN NC INTO THE PIEDMONT BY

LATE AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE

PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...

A STRONG/SEVERE BROKEN QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLE

SUPERCELLS/MESO-VORTICES IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF

THE PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH

OF THE TLH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INLAND WITH LOW/MID 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS

SPREADING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WILL INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING...THE AIR MASS

IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000 J/KG IN PARTS

OF THE WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE

ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL JET

WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL

ENHANCE CONVECTIVE STORM INTENSITY WITHIN THE QLCS AND SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL INITIATION OF DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS IN THE WEAKLY

CAPPED WARM SECTOR.

VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL BE

SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR

TORNADOES ALONG THE QLCS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND

SRH /200-500 M2 PER S2 FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS/ AND EXPECTED

RAPID STORM MOTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL

LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DISCRETE PERSISTENT

SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW AND

COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD/EWD THROUGH THE EVENING

HOURS.

...GA SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL

A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXTEND SWD

FROM PARTS OF SRN/ERN GA INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL AS THE LINE OF

CONVECTION MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AS THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING

MOVES EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.

..WEISS.. 12/25/2012

[buckeyefan1]

Moderate risk for some of you SE folks.

I was just going to post this Stay safe everyone

[Brick Tamland]

The timing of this could not be worse being it is Christmas and some of the storms could come overnight. A lot of people are not going to have a clue this is possible.

[mclean02]

The timing of this could not be worse being it is Christmas and some of the storms could come overnight. A lot of people are not going to have a clue this is possible.

i was didnt know about it and i am on the forums everyday looking for snow lol. Hope its not as bad as some models show.

[SN_Lover]

Damage reports coming in already, debris ball showing up in LA. cant imagine people loosing homes today.

video of a waterspout today

http://www.wwltv.com/video?id=184763321&sec=554827&ref=rcvidmod

[DBriedis]

My neighbor had no clue we were under a threat for tomorrow so I wished her a Merry Christmas and told her to keep her ears open tomorrow! The local stations here in Columbia haven't said much about it and today they aren't even showing the local news in favor of Xmas programs.