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December 24th - 25th Christmas Miracle Snowfall


Powerball

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Oh by the way....since this is a White Christmas for the Detroit area....Channel 7's "10% chance" issued on Dec 12th, did indeed, prove a FAIL. :)

How can this be? The talk on here was that the only chance Detroit had was with the big storm last week since the models showed nothing after that through Christmas. :lmao:

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You can't look at the end result and call a probabilistic forecast a bust....doesn't work like that.

That probablistic "forecast" was ridiculously based on the fact that it was mild and snowless December 12th. It had zero reasoning and zero merit. It was a typical amateur graphic from a non-met weatherperson who doesnt know squat about out climate. We have a 50/50 shot historically and there was no reason to go lower than that, much less deep-south type low, because it was mild 2 weeks before christmas. Look how SE MI's forecast changed yesterday in SIX HOURS to give us a white Christmas. So giving 90% odds of a snowless one 300 HOURS out was ridiculous, end of story. And if we had bare ground this morning...it still would have been a ridiculous option on Dec 12th!

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That probablistic "forecast" was ridiculously based on the fact that it was mild and snowless December 12th. It had zero reasoning and zero merit. It was a typical amateur graphic from a non-met weatherperson who doesnt know squat about out climate. We have a 50/50 shot historically and there was no reason to go lower than that, much less deep-south type low, because it was mild 2 weeks before christmas. Look how SE MI's forecast changed yesterday in SIX HOURS to give us a white Christmas. So giving 90% odds of a snowless one 300 HOURS out was ridiculous, end of story. And if we had bare ground this morning...it still would have been a ridiculous option on Dec 12th!

Those are all fine arguments as to why it was a bad forecast.

Saying that 10% was too low because it didn't happen is not. If you tell me there's a 50% chance I get heads when I flip a coin and a flip tails 4 times in a row, I can't say you made a bad "forecast" based on only that.

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It was more the 'DTX always gets it wrong all the time' that bugged me. Still, DTX has to go off the offical reports they have. Altering the map based on "common sense" (not even sure what that means) or reports from here or something would be unprofessional and unscientific.

Also its a 1-3" event on Christmas Eve so yeah its prob gonna not be perfect.

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It was more the 'DTX always gets it wrong all the time' that bugged me. Still, DTX has to go off the offical reports they have. Altering the map based on "common sense" (not even sure what that means) or reports from here or something would be unprofessional and unscientific.

Also its a 1-3" event on Christmas Eve so yeah its prob gonna not be perfect.

Here is straight up simple question:

If you were running that office at that time and you had Joe Schmoe making up this map would you have approved it?

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Here is straight up simple question:

If you were running that office at that time and you had Joe Schmoe making up this map would you have approved it?

Well we are talking about a gov agency here. Its run no differently than the post office or other bloated agencies. Things just slip by....

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