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December 24th - 25th Christmas Miracle Snowfall

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

EURO/GGEM showed accumulating snow here in Toronto Christmas Eve. NAM/GFS are scrape jobs but have been steadily trending north. Don't want to get greedy but this would be a swell appetizer before the main course.

And it would fall on one of two days when 90% of the public want snow. Any other day other than Dec 24-25 that number is probably more like 30%.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Sounds generous to me. I'd say <10% of the people around here root for snow, aside from around Christmas.

I used to think that...but aside from us weather geeks...I find there are a lot of closeted snow lovers. Simply put, people think its common courtesy to b**ch about snow. I cant tell you how many times someone will say, during a snowstorm, "woo its nasty out" or something like that, to which I respond "I love snow". Then they come back with, oh I like it too...just dont like driving or shoveling.

Of my 7 coworkers, 3 hate snow, 1 loves snow, 3 dont mind it

Of my 5 closest friends, 3 hate snow, 0 love snow, and 2 dont mind it

Of my 5 immediate family members, 1 hates snow, 2 love snow, and 2 dont mind it

So of the 17 people I see the most....

7 hate snow

3 love snow

7 dont mind snow (neither like nor hate)

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Well, DTX upped our snow chances Christmas Eve night to 50% from 30%, and added chances to Christmas Eve Day.

  • Monday A chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Aaand the DTX AFD, I only copied the part discussing the possible Christmas Eve event, not the potential big daddy after Christmas.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER A TRANQUIL WX DAY ON SUNDAY CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW, PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, AND SEASONABLE HIGH

TEMPS AROUND 30, THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN - NOW

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE LOCAL WX ON

THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE FOR AWHILE. TODAY`S LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUSES

ON TWO POTENTIAL EPISODES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE FIRST BEING THE

POTENTIAL FOR A RIBBON OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND IS

THE STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC GULF LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG

EITHER SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS NEXT WEEK.

1. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN MULTIPLE POORLY SAMPLED SHORTWAVES WILL

BE KEY TO DEFINING THE NATURE AND POSITION OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE

ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL TERMS, LITTLE HAS

CHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE IN

THE PROCESS OF SPINNING OFF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST

IS STILL PROGGED TO UNDERGO AN EARLY PHASE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH

ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE ENERGY FOUND AT 145W/35N AS OF 12Z THIS

MORNING. NWP SOLUTIONS UNIVERSALLY ASSOCIATE THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL

RESPONSE WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEGMENT OF THE WAVE AS THE STRONGER

NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE

SOLUTION SPACE APPEARS TO BE COLLAPSING, AT LEAST SOMEWHAT, WITH

REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION/INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES AS THE TROUGH

AXIS WRAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SPECIFICALLY, SOLUTIONS

HAVE SHOWN A STEADY TREND TOWARD A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN WAVE OVER

THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CONSEQUENCE IS A GROWING EXPECTATION

FOR THE PRIMARY AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH. THE

TREND HAS BEEN CONTINUED BY ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH THE GEM

BEING THE STRONGEST.

CROSS-SECTIONS FROM ROUGHLY SEBEWAING TO CINCINNATI REVEAL LOW

STATIC STABILITY THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE

APPROACHING WAVE. THE DEVELOPING TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION/PV INTRUSION

SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PROBLEM AT ALL SPINNING UP A

DEEP, AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT INTENSE FRONTAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERIZED

BY A FORCING MAX ALONG/NORTH OF THE H5 LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE

INCREASING CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS - AT LEAST IN A GENERAL SENSE -

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL

AFFECT AT LEAST FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE MONDAY. PINNING DOWN THE

POSITION AND INTENSITY WILL BE A CHALLENGE THAT SHOULD COME EASIER

IN 24 HOURS AS THE QUALITY OF OBSERVATIONS INCREASES. AT THIS POINT,

PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCLUSION THAT CAN BE DRAWN IS THAT A

SLIGHTLY FLATTER EVOLUTION SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS

WOULD FAVOR A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE

PRECIP SHIELD AS THE INFLUX OF DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW

WOULD IMPINGE ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. A

STRONGER EVOLUTION, SUCH AS THAT SUGGESTED BY THE GEM WOULD MORE

STRONGLY FAVOR A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE AND A MORE

PROLONGED/WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE ECMWF

SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, THE TREND OF THE LAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES FOR

A MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS

INTACT IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD LOW CHC POPS. IN ADDITION, A SHARP

GRADIENT IN THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF M59 IS NOW DEPICTED IN THE

GRIDS FOR MONDAY EVE/MONDAY NIGHT.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

FWIW, 12z NAM likes northern Indiana to southern/southeast Michigan for some Christmas Eve lovin'. Mood flakes back into NE IL.

GFS is on board for a minor 1-3" event SEMI

18z NAM continues to show some Christmas Eve love for Northern IN and especially Southern MI. IWX and HPC agree. Looks like a white Christmas that area.

IWX:

FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE ACTIVE

SOLUTION NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLY ON MONDAY. NAM MODEL INITIALIZATION

AND VERIFICATION WERE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE AND BY HPC PMD

DISCUSSION. GIVEN THE THETE E VERTICAL PROFILE AND UPPER LEVEL

SUPPORT...EXPECT A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OR PERIODS OF MODERATE

SNOW MONDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES

DURING THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY...BUT

COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME ALL SNOW

DURING THE AFTERNOON.

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

CLE going all in I guess:

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ON MONDAY

AND BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE

IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE STORM TAPS INTO SOMEWHAT WARMER

AIR...THAT THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN DURING

THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...COLDER AIR

WILL WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL

SNOW. AT THIS POINT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4

INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED

TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. I DONT

ANTICIPATE LAKE EFFECT BECOMING A PROBLEM IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW DUE

TO THE LESS FAVORABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE LAKES.

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

DTX is thinking about an inch from this Christmas eve around here. It's better than nothing, but I'd obviously like just a little bit more than that out of this. Last night's AFD:

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL 48 THROUGHOUT THE

UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MARKED BY PROGRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC MID LEVEL

WESTERLIES SUSTAINED BENEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN

ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CANADA. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE FOR A

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD LOCALLY WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR

PRECIPITATION...AS A SERIES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVES EJECTING OUT

OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ENGAGE AN ENEGERTIC UPPER JET STRUCTURE

OSCILLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A STRONG

INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR WILL BE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN...THE

THERMAL PROFILE WILL TEND TO REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO JUST

BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGARY SHOWING THE FIRST WAVES OF

INTEREST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...THE NORTHERN WAVE A MORE ROBUST

PV FILAMENT FRAGMENTING OFF THE MEAN NORTHERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW AND

THE SOUTHERN WAVE MORE SUBTLY DISPLAYED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOWER HEIGHT CORRIDOR WILL QUICKLY FUNNEL

DOWNSTREAM AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE

HOLDING FIRM WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER SCALE

FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE BUT NO LESS IMPORTANT ADJUSTMENTS

/MAINLY POSITIONING/ CONTINUE TO FIGURE IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS

LOCALLY. FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO THE

SOUTHERN WAVE WILL EFFECTIVELY INDUCE A MODEST SURFACE RESPONSE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TEND TO PULL NORTHEAST AS THE MUCH

STRONGER NORTHERN WAVE DEEPENS FURTHER AS IT ABSORBS THE EXISTING PV

STRUNG OUT TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHERN ADJUSTMENT DISPLAYED IN

RECENT MODEL CYCLES HOLDING STEADY NOW...TRANSLATING INTO GROWING

CONFIDENCE OF SEEING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST

SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MIDDAY MONDAY INTO THE LATE

EVENING HOURS. CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS OF BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS

GUIDANCE STILL DISPLAY A HEALTHY CORRIDOR OF 850-700 MB ASCENT

WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CARRYING LOW STATIC STABILITY...ANCHORED BY A

GOOD AGEOSTROPIC RESPONSE TO THE SHRINKING THERMAL STRUCTURE AND

INFUSION OF CVA. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY

(SPECIFIC HUMIDITY INTO THE 3 G/KG RANGE) AND DEEPER FORCING WILL

ALIGN M-59 SOUTH...SUPPORTING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE ONE

INCH RANGE. THE GENERAL UPTICK IN CVA WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE

FOR SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE...

ALTHOUGH A MORE LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILE THANKS TO THE DRY

NORTHEAST FLOW LEAVES THIS IN QUESTION.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

DTX is thinking about an inch from this Christmas eve around here. It's better than nothing, but I'd obviously like just a little bit more than that out of this. Last night's AFD:

Yeah they are thinking JUST enough for a White Christmas. We will certainly have at least a T on the ground regardless of what happens (ie coating of snow in at least the shade) but an official white Christmas is 1"+. BTW, I notice your sig you put 1st measurable snow 12/21. No measurable on 11/23 or esp 11/25?

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Yeah they are thinking JUST enough for a White Christmas. We will certainly have at least a T on the ground regardless of what happens (ie coating of snow in at least the shade) but an official white Christmas is 1"+. BTW, I notice your sig you put 1st measurable snow 12/21. No measurable on 11/23 or esp 11/25?

I'm thinking about an inch, maybe two for Toronto and Kitchener (where I'll be Christmas Eve) which would be perfect. Atmospheric accumulating light snow, with the roads not being too treacherous for travellers. Then, the big snows on the 26-27th.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking about an inch, maybe two for Toronto and Kitchener (where I'll be Christmas Eve) which would be perfect. Atmospheric accumulating light snow, with the roads not being too treacherous for travellers. Then, the big snows on the 26-27th.

RGEM shows a band of LES developing on the E flow starting in Toronto then shifting south into the western burbs/Hamilton.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking about an inch, maybe two for Toronto and Kitchener (where I'll be Christmas Eve) which would be perfect. Atmospheric accumulating light snow, with the roads not being too treacherous for travellers. Then, the big snows on the 26-27th.

I would say a scenic inch here. Temps look to be "mild" so the snow will probably be wet, which is good for really coating the trees Id think. This will make or break an "official" White Christmas here. Should tomorrow fail, Christmas snow depth would be a T (coating in the shade, perhaps a few skiffs left in the sun).

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Yeah they are thinking JUST enough for a White Christmas. We will certainly have at least a T on the ground regardless of what happens (ie coating of snow in at least the shade) but an official white Christmas is 1"+. BTW, I notice your sig you put 1st measurable snow 12/21. No measurable on 11/23 or esp 11/25?

Nope, not IMBY. That was the first time it had stuck so far this year, haven't had the best of luck yet.

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