Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Except the eyewall site doesn't seem to be updating. It still would give a nice ice storm to the far western suburbs but went from high Wed of around 35 or so on the 06Z run to 50 on the 12Z oscillation. I think my quote is going to emphasize the continued uncertainty of the track and where any transition zone set up. Being still 4 days out from a less-than-ideal setup for a DC winter storm, I don't know why anyone would expect/demand anything more specific. This was never a setup to be on a "mountaintop" beyond the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago JB found this GFS run startling....as we all did. The block has vanished on this run and the storm cuts...is the GFS good with blocking patterns inside 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. That whole eastern canada configuration has been the big bugaboo through all the model gyrations on this storm. When the blocking isn't as good it goes towards the old wes/west track, when it comes back it goes to the DT/Chill version. I've always liked the western version better but yesterday was started to give up. Now I don't know but do think I'd lean towards the Euro and then put in a lot of caveats about the track and what that might mean to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago It was steady for a while but it could be right. I'd not say so until there is more support tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That whole eastern canada configuration has been the big bugaboo through all the model gyrations on this storm. When the blocking isn't as good it goes towards the old wes/west track, when it comes back it goes to the DT/Chill version. I've always liked the western version better but yesterday was started to give up. Now I don't know but do think I'd lean towards the Euro and then put in a lot of caveats about the track and what that might mean to our area. I can't tell for sure because of the subtlety but it appears that the Christmas wave hold the key. We either need it to be slower in its current track or further south and a bit deeper at its current speed to reinforce the block. I can't tell for sure if that's a key ingredient or not but it kinda looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JB found this GFS run startling....as we all did. The block has vanished on this run and the storm cuts...is the GFS good with blocking patterns inside 5 days? Not particularly but it's more typical error is to be too flat. Still the way it has jumped around is just saying that the small differences in the initial conditions are really important right now and that this storm track is not yet very predictable with any certainty. I'm like Bob, I'm amazed that the model had a storm consistently for the last two weeks even though it has jumped it's track from Chicao to the off Hatteras and now back into Ky. Just having a storm is a pretty big modeling coup. We;ve known this would be a stormy period, we just don't know who yet is going to get a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. Bob, great post. Even a weather novice like myself can understand what u are saying with those maps along with understanding the players on the field that are causing these massive shifts. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago Goofy runs are only wrong when they give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd say the gfs ens and the Euro will give us a better idea. Nobody posted the Canadian....must be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd say the gfs ens and the Euro will give us a better idea. Nobody posted the Canadian....must be bad. cmc is east of the gfs, I-95 mix/rain to snow at the end, NW of 95 all snow looks like to my untrained eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd say the gfs ens and the Euro will give us a better idea. Nobody posted the Canadian....must be bad. ggem looks okay but it did trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd say the gfs ens and the Euro will give us a better idea. Nobody posted the Canadian....must be bad. Saw in Se thread the GFS ENS has the low in Johnson City.....not sure what happens from there...maybe a tad east of the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Saw in Se thread the GFS ENS has the low in Johnson City.....not sure what happens from there...maybe a tad east of the Op? someone said the way the isobars showed on ensembles that many more members were east than west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Saw in Se thread the GFS ENS has the low in Johnson City.....not sure what happens from there...maybe a tad east of the Op? How do they get that so fast. I guess that's the mean. That's a good deal east of what I saw on the GFS. It had it in Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 someone said the way the isobars showed on ensembles that many more members were east than west the CMC looked real nice also in SE thread...if that was the most reliable model we'd be getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The ensemble mean is pretty ugly..close to the OP but a bit further east but in terms of what its been showing, its not a good shift., but I dont know what individual memebers show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How do they get that so fast. I guess that's the mean. That's a good deal east of what I saw on the GFS. It had it in Nashville. The folks in the SE thread don't play around...they are probably analyzing the 18z for today right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The ensemble mean is pretty ugly..close to the OP but a bit further east but in terms of what its been showing, its not a good shift., but I dont know what individual memebers show 96hr, I think the 850 zero line is where the green goes to blue The 018 ens mean The track would probably offer freezing rain but is not a good snow one but it is the mean so there are probably members on the east and west side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Naturally today the PSU site isn't updating. I'd really like to see the ind members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12z mean is very similar to the 0z mean. Sandwiched between them is the 6z mean which is much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Im not sure how you come to that conclusion...the 12z mean is significantly more stronger and a bit more amplified...even if the track is not ALL that different, if its stronger and more amplified, its going to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is NW thru 90 so far.. not sure if that will translate but it looks like it might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Is the xmas eve storm really all rain? Has its own thread now. The BL looks iffy. QPF is low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like the first storm which could be snow is screwing with the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 next...way NW yeah it's pretty ugly.. especially around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There is still some initial frozen... yeah, a bit. pretty big move in the wrong direction for just about everyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well it looks like we may go through entire holiday period with no snow. All 3 snow events from last night 00z Gfs are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 As least we're not in SE PA and don't believe in clown maps.. went from 8-12 there to like 1" in one Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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