ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing is really clarified except there has been some more consistency with the solution....It is a nightmare forecast...for a high travel day and LWX/CWG have their hands full Nothing against them, but for that reason they will over warn imo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Last sentence resonates. We've been here and done this a lot. I can take a couple guesses. Another run....another tall stack of possibilities. Accum snow for you and me is still pretty slim but not off the table. I love the 8 am start....no chance to warm....plus we get to watch it....of course the time will change...I'd lean toward no impact for me except maybe I see some flakes or sleet initially and then just cold rain..I'm not being IMBY On this one....I have been following it for its impact west and north....I don't know if it will be ideal ice storm conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing is really clarified except there has been some more consistency with the solution....It is a nightmare forecast...for a high travel day and LWX/CWG have their hands full Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. SPI 2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I love the 8 am start....no chance to warm....plus we get to watch it....of course the time will change...I'd lean toward no impact for me except maybe I see some flakes or sleet initially and then just cold rain..I'm not being IMBY On this one....I have been following it for its impact west and north....I don't know if it will be ideal ice storm conditions And then all those finite details like dp, wind direction, onset temp, and the real condition of the column come into play. All the things that make sensible wx forecasts so awful tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. I feel like sending you a pound of your favorite coffee for Xmas. This is setting up to be quite a headscratcher for forecasters. No envy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is colder for Christmas Eve event. Similar to 12z on main event.. maybe a bit colder early and then warmer late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Clown maps pull back snowfall totals a bit to the NW but still a tight gradient to the NW of the cities. Elevations like MRB etc still do pretty well, some mixing seems likely but still plenty wintry. Christmas Eve event probably puts down coating-2" across good part of area, NW of 95 at least, on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z Euro at a glance, for the morning crew: Christmas Eve (Day 3) Day 4 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Dt analysis says 8 - 12 on the European for the Shenandoah. Looks like ji land is the battle zone. I am 20 miles east and would see rain. Need a bit if you a more east trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you are looking for model to hug the 00Z GGEM is probably the way to go. It drives the low up from South Carolina to just inland around O.C. From what it is showing one would think roughly half a foot around the 95 corridor with greater amounts of over a foot North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The first event looks less impressive. I can imagine snow in the air as far east as the I-95 corridor but accumulation stays confined out by I-81. The Wednesday event is looking better with CAD and dry dew bulb temperatures at the onset and then with energy transfer to the coast, areas that are already receiving frozen precipitation don't warm up. It sure looks like accumulating snow and sleet (DC 1-2??) with typical higher amounts north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking at the 06Z GFS I would think that it probably implies a big ice storm for the 95 corridor with heavy snows just to the north and west. Looking at the surface temps it shows a strong CAD signature at the onset and yet erodes that quickly and drives the 32 line north and west of the cities. But looking at the surface winds I have difficulty believing that would be the case considering that winds stay from the NE in the 95 region draining down cold air throughout the event before switching to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z gfs is plenty cold back here on the ground...temps in the upper 20's with plenty of precip and 850's below zero...so as of this run all of the precip appears to be frozen roughly IAD west...Christmas eve...dryer but a tad colder than 0z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z all snow for jyo http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kjyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z all snow for jyo http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Kjyo Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS ensemble I would be think that screams major snowstorm DC north. The 850's tell a different story though with the freezing line North and West of DC and Baltimore during a good portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain I think we will see at least 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes says 6z and 18z always colder so.... The evolution of the opinion on the off hour runs over the years has been interesting to say the least. A few years ago it was a joke to even mention them...mostly dt driven I think.... then I recall some well respected mets saying that the off hour runs were getting new info and were much better and statistically were showing that...now of course when the off hour runs show snow then they are probably off...pun intended. Who knows...who cares...it's Christmas and we are tracking some potential frozen precip...way better than reading about how crappy the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes says 6z and 18z always colder so.... That is what I have noticed as well. I am still not a big fan of the off runs myself but that is just probably my bias showing from past years when they spit out BS solutions quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks quite nice for Christmas eve. Snow for all points on and north/west of 95. Maybe general 1-3"? Euro and its ensembles are almost identical for the Chill storm. Take it to the mouth of the bay. Trixie would stay all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain Twister Data has good sounds-- you get the skew T and just pure levels. Taking exactly on the 6z run-- JYO is all snow through 108. (not much wiggle room) It's basically over by 114 with some -zr as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z gfs is plenty cold back here on the ground...temps in the upper 20's with plenty of precip and 850's below zero...so as of this run all of the precip appears to be frozen roughly IAD west...Christmas eve...dryer but a tad colder than 0z was I didn't look at you but Fredrerick Maryland is all snow unless there is a break in between the good warm advection snow and the deformation zone when it dries out above -10C before the deeper clouds come back in. MY guess is you would be the same if the upper low gets south enough to put you in the deformation zone. Quite a gradient. The first sounding is for DCA at 18Z on the 26th The second is for Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That is what I have noticed as well. I am still not a big fan of the off runs myself but that is just probably my bias showing from past years when they spit out BS solutions quite often. Not true, Ji is misinterpreting what I said which isn't unusual. The off hours with this storm have seemed to be colder almost each run. the physics are the same so there is no reason that there would be a systematic bias that I can think of. I need to be more careful what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS ensemble I would be think that screams major snowstorm DC north. The 850's tell a different story though with the freezing line North and West of DC and Baltimore during a good portion of the event. When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. That why I almost always use my screen snipper when only part of the map matters. I resize a lot too and zoom the panel in and out when the site let's you. Really helps folks on their phones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On storm number 2 - Looking at the GFS and Euro side by side.... I believe that in this range we have very good model agreement. Of course there are difference... but the overall track and set up are very close... and it seems that both models have been locked in now for the last several runs. I am actually pretty impressed with the agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That why I almost always use my screen snipper when only part of the map matters. I resize a lot too and zoom the panel in and out when the site let's you. Really helps folks on their phones too. I use snagit but you can also use powerpoint and snip the image before saving it. Using the latter you can also annotate it if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes, I gather your thoughts for Frederick & Westminster are the same in regards to timing, precip type and accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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