WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks quite nice for Christmas eve. Snow for all points on and north/west of 95. Maybe general 1-3"? Euro and its ensembles are almost identical for the Chill storm. Take it to the mouth of the bay. Trixie would stay all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain Twister Data has good sounds-- you get the skew T and just pure levels. Taking exactly on the 6z run-- JYO is all snow through 108. (not much wiggle room) It's basically over by 114 with some -zr as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z gfs is plenty cold back here on the ground...temps in the upper 20's with plenty of precip and 850's below zero...so as of this run all of the precip appears to be frozen roughly IAD west...Christmas eve...dryer but a tad colder than 0z was I didn't look at you but Fredrerick Maryland is all snow unless there is a break in between the good warm advection snow and the deformation zone when it dries out above -10C before the deeper clouds come back in. MY guess is you would be the same if the upper low gets south enough to put you in the deformation zone. Quite a gradient. The first sounding is for DCA at 18Z on the 26th The second is for Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That is what I have noticed as well. I am still not a big fan of the off runs myself but that is just probably my bias showing from past years when they spit out BS solutions quite often. Not true, Ji is misinterpreting what I said which isn't unusual. The off hours with this storm have seemed to be colder almost each run. the physics are the same so there is no reason that there would be a systematic bias that I can think of. I need to be more careful what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS ensemble I would be think that screams major snowstorm DC north. The 850's tell a different story though with the freezing line North and West of DC and Baltimore during a good portion of the event. When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. That why I almost always use my screen snipper when only part of the map matters. I resize a lot too and zoom the panel in and out when the site let's you. Really helps folks on their phones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On storm number 2 - Looking at the GFS and Euro side by side.... I believe that in this range we have very good model agreement. Of course there are difference... but the overall track and set up are very close... and it seems that both models have been locked in now for the last several runs. I am actually pretty impressed with the agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That why I almost always use my screen snipper when only part of the map matters. I resize a lot too and zoom the panel in and out when the site let's you. Really helps folks on their phones too. I use snagit but you can also use powerpoint and snip the image before saving it. Using the latter you can also annotate it if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes, I gather your thoughts for Frederick & Westminster are the same in regards to timing, precip type and accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I use snagit but you can also use powerpoint and snip the image before saving it. Using the latter you can also annotate it if you want. I had a feeling that you used powerpoint after reading your articles through the years. I stick with good ole paint because I'm a simpleton. lol Are you thinking that the messy forecast is pretty much locked in at this point? 6z was just another similar run of snow, ice, ip, zr, and rain all within a 75 mile radius of DC. I'm still leery because a big enough shift can still happen to have a pretty decent change in sensible wx. Just a late transfer would do it. Of course the weenie side of me wants and early transfer and rapid intensification but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. I just noticed that myself. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I had a feeling that you used powerpoint after reading your articles through the years. I stick with good ole paint because I'm a simpleton. lol Are you thinking that the messy forecast is pretty much locked in at this point? 6z was just another similar run of snow, ice, ip, zr, and rain all within a 75 mile radius of DC. I'm still leery because a big enough shift can still happen to have a pretty decent change in sensible wx. Just a late transfer would do it. Of course the weenie side of me wants and early transfer and rapid intensification but that's just me. The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. I'm used to being the transition zone...usually the money transitions from my pocket to my kids hands but the rain/snow line has been out here too over recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. Unfortunately for me on the N side of Rockville I'm almost never on the "good" side of the transition zone. If I was still living in Germantown I would have a little more confidence in getting accum snow. Folks up around Parrs could do pretty well. Westminster, Hampstead, etc are probably going to get a good dose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can we keep the Christmas eve system and the later one seperate in different threads? Just a thought. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Chill/DT storm is a major hit out this way on the euro. Temps are great and looks like all snow as modeled. Very sharp cutoff around Mount Weather. That makes sense though as the colder air would be stuck from there west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can we keep the Christmas eve system and the later one seperate in different threads? Just a thought. Thx No doubt about that. My quick look at the 12Z NAM suggests the Christmas eve 850 mb low slips into Ohio and then Port Matilda and ENE. So east of I-81, light snow in the air on the front end with minor accumulations, if any before WAA at 850 mb turns everything wet instead of white. The system after, the system late on 12/26 into 12/27 is the more interesting big brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Jmo- but I think keeping them together for now is fine. Xmas event is still low impact no matter which way you slice it. If the vort pass changes south and the column goes cold with 12z guidance then definitely threadworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Chilly rain on the NAM out here....but just a tad chillier than 6z was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Jmo- but I think keeping them together for now is fine. Xmas event is still low impact no matter which way you slice it. If the vort pass changes south and the column goes cold with 12z guidance then definitely threadworthy. I think each event would be better off with a seperate thread. I mean we had one for each thunderstorm that passed through over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Do I have the right run or is the GFS really bringing this through Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water lol, When I saw the low track to Ky I thought this might be a Ji suicide run. It's track certainly supports the continued wide range of ptype solutions being shown on the GEFS plume diagram, it shows more snow looks thatn yesterday but still has quite a few ones as mostly or all rain. I'd hedge towards the euro for now but think making a deterministic forecast right now would be stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water NCEP is doing us a favor by making the GFS hard to get off their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is about when most of our storms start going to crap. We've just been tracking this one so long it feels like its locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 we're slated to be driving back from CT on the 26th so I am kind of hoping for either a delayed start or for a cold rain. if not we may just stay another day and enjoy the storm up there. Looking at HPC's discussion this morning, it would be great if you could stay a couple days more in Conn. This sounds pretty good for up there: CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT FROM A SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY TUE/CHRISTMAS DAY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THU-THU NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM SW OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/ERN GRTLKS AND NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well. 12z GFS looks like it was better with the XMAS storm (sadly I am down here, bc obvi NYC is going to see mostly snow), but the following storm is now a complete bust. Will wait for the EURO but prospects with either were never good, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is about when most of our storms start going to crap. We've just been tracking this one so long it feels like its locked in. we just went from 28 and snow to 44 and rain in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NCEP is doing us a favor by making the GFS hard to get off their site. Except the eyewall site doesn't seem to be updating. It still would give a nice ice storm to the far western suburbs but went from high Wed of around 35 or so on the 06Z run to 50 on the 12Z oscillation. I think my quote is going to emphasize the continued uncertainty of the track and where any transition zone set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 warm rainstorm for everyone. So much for a pattern change if 12z gfs is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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