Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Weenie map just so I don't seem that dumb. I'm aware I'm still wrong though. Honestly, I think these maps need to be banned...they all suck, they are useless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Honestly, I think these maps need to be banned...they all suck, they are useless.. Oh I agree, the IWM.com maps are better, 24 hr accum through 129 has 2-3" DC/BAL, big totals into S PA and over into NW Virginia. 6-8" for OKV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 QPF drops off quite a bit on the 18z run down here in CHO. Dry slot seems progged for this area if the storm takes a more south-east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Oh I agree, the IWM.com maps are better, 24 hr accum through 129 has 2-3" DC/BAL, big totals into S PA and over into NW Virginia. 6-8" for OKV well...that is complete Bull-****....sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18Z didnt change much from 12Z. Maybe a little colder with both events. Temp issues still for the xmas storm. Decent snow storm on the model for MBY for the second storm. Def some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Folks, let's please keep these threads for analysis and discussion. Weenie snow maps, emoticon-only posts and the like belong in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I certainly overstated things by saying I'd be stunned if it changed as I didn't expect there to be no changes but didn't see any chance of the low going to our south and east enough for a snowstorm. I still think that is unlikely as the most likely track is still some type of miller b solution. I guess you'll consider my comments equivocated. I certainly did not see the storm coming as far east as it look like it will but still think the odds are that the storm track west of us which keeps most of us from getting a major winter storm. Could we get the latter, sure as I noted in my article. I guess part of the problem with communicating between us is that some always see snow chances (I'm not saying you) pretty much every storm and I probably have reacted too strongly to that. Anyway, congrats to you and Bob. Wes, you are a true met genius to many of us. Most of us here are here because we love weather, many of us loving winter weather over all of it. We learn so much from you, Ian, Matt, Bob, UsWx. It adds tremendously to our enjoyment of the weather. We haven't had much to celebrate. Not having this board would have made this December a maddening experience for many of us. I deserve no congrats. I've been skeptical of everything, good and bad. All I did was point out a pretty big upper air modeling change that last Sat 18z put out. It was a game changer for this storm. When it moved away from for a couple of days, we went right back to bad solutions (for us). As soon as it went back to flattening the heights in southern Canada, the good results came back. I've simply been doing a play by play on the height pattern. Just watching. I had no confidence in it either until the Euro started going that way too. I've learned, from this board, that until there's some common ground from the models that any one scenario is likely to be wrong. But anyway, thanks for being so gracious, you and others, and for allowing people like me who don't really know much to post and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. The NAM at 18z did something similar, the 18z models started the amped idea, I doubt its a trend but I mean we won't know til 0z and succeeding runs. Regardless, the 18z gfs has a more favorable vort passage relative to previous runs, though surface temperatures are still marginal. Overall though, the 540 thicknesses are favorable, and the sfc temps would in reality be around 33-34 for most. Its an improvement from the previous runs, but judging by the last few 18z rounds, I need to see more. The vort going just a tad more south from 18z would be optimal, and the verdict is still out on whether 0z follows up amping the system. The GGEM has been doing this for the last 4 days of runs, so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. Pretty tricky as the even the intesnity of the precip may play a role in the ptype. The much wetter 18Z GFS has the temps at 7PM xmas eve above freezing from just below 850mb to the surface at DCA with the max temp around 35 degrees within that layer. I'm not sure what the ptype would be with the sounding, either very wet snow or rain. A little earlier in the day, the sounding would support snow. Lighten the precip and that layer would most likely be warmer. The GFS is the strongest in handling that feature of any of the models so far. I think rain is more likely than snow but don't really know. Oops where you live, the chances of snow would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. It's seemed as though the vort max has gotten a bit more potent in the past few runs but I want to caution we still are 72 hrs out. In my experience these little buggers are notoriously finicky in regards to precip placement and often come down to now-casting situations. Temperatures are marginal and these little waves don't pack the punch to give 1in/hr + rates everywhere in order to make snow out of a marginal situation. In short, stay-tuned and don't get your hopes up. That way you'll either be pleasantly surprised or not dissapointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pretty tricky as the even the intesnity of the precip may play a role in the ptype. The much wetter 18Z GFS has the temps at 7PM xmas eve above freezing from just below 850mb to the surface at DCA with the max temp around 35 degrees within that layer. I'm not sure what the ptype would be with the sounding, either very wet snow or rain. A little earlier in the day, the sounding would support snow. Lighten the precip and that layer would most likely be warmer. The GFS is the strongest in handling that feature of any of the models so far. I think rain is more likely than snow but don't really know. Oops where you live, the chances of snow would be higher. It seems to me that the best case kind of solution would be mid 30s. Then a few hour thump of SN /+SN at 32-33. Then back to 35-36. The key is probably rates. Maybe we can get a precip explosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like every off hour run is colder than the 00Z o 12Z even for the xmas eve event. Both the 00Z GFS and NAm look rainy for the 1st event on this run. It will be interesting to see what the GFS does on the nxt one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS a little more north with the Christmas Eve event by 25-40 miles, but at 78 hrs it's really drilling the cold air south with the 0-850 line southbound at about Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like every off hour run is colder than the 00Z o 12Z even for the xmas eve event. Both the 00Z GFS and NAm look rainy for the 1st event on this run. It will be interesting to see what the GFS does on the nxt one. and drier too...~0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trend deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trends deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. I feel pretty confident we'll see some flakes with it, just doubt any accumulations except on some grassy surfaces (if any, that is) that vort is a potent bugger and basically travels almost right over DCA, which should be worth a few holiday flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trend deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. I'm thinking mixed bag across the region, the farther N obviously the higher % of that will be SN. BL temps below the M/D are so marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Monday is pretty mild.. the air mass is crappy. You need rates etc.. but the wave is sort of just there to set the stage really anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is pretty much the same old story... it throws a nice slug of moisture over surface cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm thinking mixed bag across the region, the farther N obviously the higher % of that will be SN. BL temps below the M/D are so marginal. I would hate to be a forecaster. 100 miles in the atmosphere is nothing. Sensible wx here is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would hate to be a forecaster. 100 miles in the atmosphere is nothing. Sensible wx here is everything. Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 finally at 120 hrs it jumps to the coast...996mb 20 mi east of Ocean City...that isn't going to help us....not much change...fun to follow..,I dont envy Sterling or CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. Good point. Even something isn't that big of a deal. I think the date is making it more important to me than it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. The nam is really warm with the first event and the GFS also looks warm enough to be all rain to me. I haven't yet look at the chill storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good point. Even something isn't that big of a deal. I think the date is making it more important to me than it should. The Euro hasn't really shown much except for one run .. if it doesn't tonight then I'd not be too excited. Was slower to pick up on it maybe but getting into its solid range now for that one. Of course any flakes would be good for the holiday spirit even if they don't do anything I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a mess I'd hate to be one of you guys and have to forecast this....WHo gets warned?...how big of an impact...sun angle will be of no help...does it get scoured out?...are temps and rates ideal for icing or hostile?....I imagine if someplace gets 0.6" of QPF and never rises above freezing there will be some problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The nam is really warm with the first event and the GFS also looks warm enough to be all rain to me. I haven't yet look at the chill storm. nothing is really clarified except there has been some more consistency with the solution....It is a nightmare forecast...for a high travel day and LWX/CWG have their hands full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd hate to be one of you guys and have to forecast this....WHo gets warned?...how big of an impact...sun angle will be of no help...does it get scoured out?...are temps and rates ideal for icing or hostile?....I imagine if someplace gets 0.6" of QPF and never rises above freezing there will be some problems Last sentence resonates. We've been here and done this a lot. I can take a couple guesses. Another run....another tall stack of possibilities. Accum snow for you and me is still pretty slim but not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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