clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What's the overall take on the Christmas Eve storm? Are we still "too close to call"? Seems like a weak system to me that just might come at a good time of day. Temps are a concern it seems. All of the models have 850's above zero and 2M temps in the mid to high 30's. Dont know how accurate that is though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I have expected there to be quite a few big shifts along the way with this storm. Just slight differences in strength speed and placement of seemingly minor features cause large swings in solutions. There have only been a couple runs over the last week that we're out to lunch. The big Chicago cutter was totally reasonable. Things changed after there was a better handle on the 50-50ish feature and the Xmas wave. Then an apps runner or miller b seems much more likely and reasonable. Expecting any model to hit on all features' strength and timing leading up is a tall order. This particular pattern is riddled with subtleties. Other patterns can be much easier at long leads but not this one imo. I'm personally getting more sold on a hybrid than a true apps runner but that doesnt mean much. Even if a hybrid becomes a lock, just wait until we see another half dozen or more different solutions about where the jump happens and how strong the primary and secondary are. It will not be boring or locked in until Xmas night and even then it's gonna be miss in someone's eyes. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z JMA has a monster, not sure how much of the precip is rain, but 700h says its still snowing at 144... Ji would be proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I have expected there to be quite a few big shifts along the way with this storm. Just slight differences in strength speed and placement of seemingly minor features cause large swings in solutions. There have only been a couple runs over the last week that we're out to lunch. The big Chicago cutter was totally reasonable. Things changed after there was a better handle on the 50-50ish feature and the Xmas wave. Then an apps runner or miller b seems much more likely and reasonable. Expecting any model to hit on all features' strength and timing leading up is a tall order. This particular pattern is riddled with subtleties. Other patterns can be much easier at long leads but not this one imo. I'm personally getting more sold on a hybrid than a true apps runner but that doesnt mean much. Even if a hybrid becomes a lock, just wait until we see another half dozen or more different solutions about where the jump happens and how strong the primary and secondary are. It will not be boring or locked in until Xmas night and even then it's gonna be miss in someone's eyes. Good times! Anything can be reasonable based on the upper pattern being forecast. There's been little if any consistency on that past 4 or 5 days. You can pull old maps and see it. I don't think anybody expects a model to have all aspects correct. Having said that, I think plenty of people like to base long range forecasts for warmth off modeled heights. So how are those forecasts expected to be solid when you're talking about upper air patterns that have proven to be unreliable? Yet a forecast based on a solution that is a cold or snowy scenario, a solution created by the modeled upper air pattern is called wish casting. Both are shots in the dark. The early week forecasts are looking to bust. And that is because the early week forecasted upper air patterns are going to be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Anything can be reasonable based on the upper pattern being forecast. There's been little if any consistency on that past 4 or 5 days. You can pull old maps and see it. I don't think anybody expects a model to have all aspects correct. Having said that, I think plenty of people like to base long range forecasts for warmth off modeled heights. So how are those forecasts expected to be solid when you're talking about upper air patterns that have proven to be unreliable? Yet a forecast based on a solution that is a cold or snowy scenario, a solution created by the modeled upper air pattern is called wish casting. Both are shots in the dark. The early week forecasts are looking to bust. And that is because the early week forecasted upper air patterns are going to be way off. I certainly overstated things by saying I'd be stunned if it changed as I didn't expect there to be no changes but didn't see any chance of the low going to our south and east enough for a snowstorm. I still think that is unlikely as the most likely track is still some type of miller b solution. I guess you'll consider my comments equivocated. I certainly did not see the storm coming as far east as it look like it will but still think the odds are that the storm track west of us which keeps most of us from getting a major winter storm. Could we get the latter, sure as I noted in my article. I guess part of the problem with communicating between us is that some always see snow chances (I'm not saying you) pretty much every storm and I probably have reacted too strongly to that. Anyway, congrats to you and Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm pretty modest Wes. We all know that it was just a hair above luck to have a call so far in advance actually appear to be working out in my favor. All I ever said was that it appeared to be our first legit shot at a significant storm that may include winter weather. I'm pretty enamoured by the next 15 days but first things first.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I definitely want to see thermal profiles for the xmas eve event since it is so close and so wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS just really juiced it up on the xmas storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I definitely want to see thermal profiles for the xmas eve event since it is so close and so wet... it's a 0.6" thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 it's a 0.6" thump It would actually probably be some decent snow this run with decent QPF thump and the 534 thickness line hovering about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS just really juiced it up on the xmas storm.. I swear the 18z is on snow crack nowadays. I'm on my phone and lazy. Where does the 500 vort pass? Still in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow maps show a sharp gradient- none in DC to 4" in Northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 it's a 0.6" thump WOW! If only that could be snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I swear the 18z is on snow crack nowadays. I'm on my phone and lazy. Where does the 500 vort pass? Still in PA? no...just to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I swear the 18z is on snow crack nowadays. I'm on my phone and lazy. Where does the 500 vort pass? Still in PA? Almost right over top of us this run, nam was really juiced at 18z as well, could be a trend. Snow becoming more possible on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no...just to our south Is it any surprise? Anecdotal here but I swear these types of things are always sneaky. Harmless little vort just getting lucky and timing itself with some light waa precip or something like that. It would be a special event if anything happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How does the surface look on the 18z for Christmas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Good ol 18z GFS! 1004mb low over eastern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How does the surface look on the 18z for Christmas eve? Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 post xmas storm coming in much further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 120 hrs...1000mb just inland off hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s 33/34, and with heavy precip and cold 850 thicknesses 534. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s Finally loaded for me. Not as bad as I thought it would be out this way. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 doesnt change much....still the same general idea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 126 i guess we've gone back to just being able to post whatever we want in these threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 doesnt change much....still the same general idea.... some ice for all over to rain for a bit 95 areas then a solid backend thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 some ice for all over to rain for a bit 95 areas then a solid backend thump. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no Sorry Matt, I'm in weenie mode right now, running on fumes man. The run is a bit of an improvement as it is colder than pvs runs, and 18z has been crazy the past few days. Regardless, I'm interested in the vort track of the xmas event, that has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i guess we've gone back to just being able to post whatever we want in these threads? no precip falls after 126 hrs..probably not after around hour 124...so there is really no reason to get jazzed about that panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 basically IAD-west never get abover freezing....It's probably a 2-4" snow for MRB with a fair amount of mixing/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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