Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trend deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trends deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. I feel pretty confident we'll see some flakes with it, just doubt any accumulations except on some grassy surfaces (if any, that is) that vort is a potent bugger and basically travels almost right over DCA, which should be worth a few holiday flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man, Xmas system is so subtle. Just gotta hope it can trend deeper and further south with the vort. Looking like we need some holiday magic. I'm thinking mixed bag across the region, the farther N obviously the higher % of that will be SN. BL temps below the M/D are so marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Monday is pretty mild.. the air mass is crappy. You need rates etc.. but the wave is sort of just there to set the stage really anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm thinking mixed bag across the region, the farther N obviously the higher % of that will be SN. BL temps below the M/D are so marginal. I would hate to be a forecaster. 100 miles in the atmosphere is nothing. Sensible wx here is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would hate to be a forecaster. 100 miles in the atmosphere is nothing. Sensible wx here is everything. Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. Good point. Even something isn't that big of a deal. I think the date is making it more important to me than it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Probably safest to assume the first is nothing.. If you have elevation and are north maybe a little more than nothing. The nam is really warm with the first event and the GFS also looks warm enough to be all rain to me. I haven't yet look at the chill storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good point. Even something isn't that big of a deal. I think the date is making it more important to me than it should. The Euro hasn't really shown much except for one run .. if it doesn't tonight then I'd not be too excited. Was slower to pick up on it maybe but getting into its solid range now for that one. Of course any flakes would be good for the holiday spirit even if they don't do anything I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd hate to be one of you guys and have to forecast this....WHo gets warned?...how big of an impact...sun angle will be of no help...does it get scoured out?...are temps and rates ideal for icing or hostile?....I imagine if someplace gets 0.6" of QPF and never rises above freezing there will be some problems Last sentence resonates. We've been here and done this a lot. I can take a couple guesses. Another run....another tall stack of possibilities. Accum snow for you and me is still pretty slim but not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing is really clarified except there has been some more consistency with the solution....It is a nightmare forecast...for a high travel day and LWX/CWG have their hands full Nothing against them, but for that reason they will over warn imo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing is really clarified except there has been some more consistency with the solution....It is a nightmare forecast...for a high travel day and LWX/CWG have their hands full Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. SPI 2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I love the 8 am start....no chance to warm....plus we get to watch it....of course the time will change...I'd lean toward no impact for me except maybe I see some flakes or sleet initially and then just cold rain..I'm not being IMBY On this one....I have been following it for its impact west and north....I don't know if it will be ideal ice storm conditions And then all those finite details like dp, wind direction, onset temp, and the real condition of the column come into play. All the things that make sensible wx forecasts so awful tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots of forecast problems, the low tracking into the tn valley makes this a pretty good freezing rain event for the the western burbs, maybe a good snow for Oakland and for us, it even looks like we would see a period of snow at the onset. For us it wouldn't last long but might look pretty. I actually think making a forecast would be fun. Time for bed so I'm lucid tomorrow. I feel like sending you a pound of your favorite coffee for Xmas. This is setting up to be quite a headscratcher for forecasters. No envy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is colder for Christmas Eve event. Similar to 12z on main event.. maybe a bit colder early and then warmer late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Clown maps pull back snowfall totals a bit to the NW but still a tight gradient to the NW of the cities. Elevations like MRB etc still do pretty well, some mixing seems likely but still plenty wintry. Christmas Eve event probably puts down coating-2" across good part of area, NW of 95 at least, on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z Euro at a glance, for the morning crew: Christmas Eve (Day 3) Day 4 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Dt analysis says 8 - 12 on the European for the Shenandoah. Looks like ji land is the battle zone. I am 20 miles east and would see rain. Need a bit if you a more east trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you are looking for model to hug the 00Z GGEM is probably the way to go. It drives the low up from South Carolina to just inland around O.C. From what it is showing one would think roughly half a foot around the 95 corridor with greater amounts of over a foot North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The first event looks less impressive. I can imagine snow in the air as far east as the I-95 corridor but accumulation stays confined out by I-81. The Wednesday event is looking better with CAD and dry dew bulb temperatures at the onset and then with energy transfer to the coast, areas that are already receiving frozen precipitation don't warm up. It sure looks like accumulating snow and sleet (DC 1-2??) with typical higher amounts north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking at the 06Z GFS I would think that it probably implies a big ice storm for the 95 corridor with heavy snows just to the north and west. Looking at the surface temps it shows a strong CAD signature at the onset and yet erodes that quickly and drives the 32 line north and west of the cities. But looking at the surface winds I have difficulty believing that would be the case considering that winds stay from the NE in the 95 region draining down cold air throughout the event before switching to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z gfs is plenty cold back here on the ground...temps in the upper 20's with plenty of precip and 850's below zero...so as of this run all of the precip appears to be frozen roughly IAD west...Christmas eve...dryer but a tad colder than 0z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z all snow for jyo http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kjyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z all snow for jyo http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Kjyo Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just looking at the 500's on the 06Z GFS ensemble I would be think that screams major snowstorm DC north. The 850's tell a different story though with the freezing line North and West of DC and Baltimore during a good portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tough to say without seeing other levels...Wes mentioned that there has been a warm layer above that means the snow would be more NW of the 850 line....still looks frozen for us right now. Right now that is my goal...our area to stay all frozen and not go to rain...want snow...would take snow/sleet...would be ok with sleet....meh freezing rain...eh..snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain....blech...freezing rain/rain...puke rain I think we will see at least 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes says 6z and 18z always colder so.... The evolution of the opinion on the off hour runs over the years has been interesting to say the least. A few years ago it was a joke to even mention them...mostly dt driven I think.... then I recall some well respected mets saying that the off hour runs were getting new info and were much better and statistically were showing that...now of course when the off hour runs show snow then they are probably off...pun intended. Who knows...who cares...it's Christmas and we are tracking some potential frozen precip...way better than reading about how crappy the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes says 6z and 18z always colder so.... That is what I have noticed as well. I am still not a big fan of the off runs myself but that is just probably my bias showing from past years when they spit out BS solutions quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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