Heisy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z JMA has a monster, not sure how much of the precip is rain, but 700h says its still snowing at 144... Ji would be proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I have expected there to be quite a few big shifts along the way with this storm. Just slight differences in strength speed and placement of seemingly minor features cause large swings in solutions. There have only been a couple runs over the last week that we're out to lunch. The big Chicago cutter was totally reasonable. Things changed after there was a better handle on the 50-50ish feature and the Xmas wave. Then an apps runner or miller b seems much more likely and reasonable. Expecting any model to hit on all features' strength and timing leading up is a tall order. This particular pattern is riddled with subtleties. Other patterns can be much easier at long leads but not this one imo. I'm personally getting more sold on a hybrid than a true apps runner but that doesnt mean much. Even if a hybrid becomes a lock, just wait until we see another half dozen or more different solutions about where the jump happens and how strong the primary and secondary are. It will not be boring or locked in until Xmas night and even then it's gonna be miss in someone's eyes. Good times! Anything can be reasonable based on the upper pattern being forecast. There's been little if any consistency on that past 4 or 5 days. You can pull old maps and see it. I don't think anybody expects a model to have all aspects correct. Having said that, I think plenty of people like to base long range forecasts for warmth off modeled heights. So how are those forecasts expected to be solid when you're talking about upper air patterns that have proven to be unreliable? Yet a forecast based on a solution that is a cold or snowy scenario, a solution created by the modeled upper air pattern is called wish casting. Both are shots in the dark. The early week forecasts are looking to bust. And that is because the early week forecasted upper air patterns are going to be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Anything can be reasonable based on the upper pattern being forecast. There's been little if any consistency on that past 4 or 5 days. You can pull old maps and see it. I don't think anybody expects a model to have all aspects correct. Having said that, I think plenty of people like to base long range forecasts for warmth off modeled heights. So how are those forecasts expected to be solid when you're talking about upper air patterns that have proven to be unreliable? Yet a forecast based on a solution that is a cold or snowy scenario, a solution created by the modeled upper air pattern is called wish casting. Both are shots in the dark. The early week forecasts are looking to bust. And that is because the early week forecasted upper air patterns are going to be way off. I certainly overstated things by saying I'd be stunned if it changed as I didn't expect there to be no changes but didn't see any chance of the low going to our south and east enough for a snowstorm. I still think that is unlikely as the most likely track is still some type of miller b solution. I guess you'll consider my comments equivocated. I certainly did not see the storm coming as far east as it look like it will but still think the odds are that the storm track west of us which keeps most of us from getting a major winter storm. Could we get the latter, sure as I noted in my article. I guess part of the problem with communicating between us is that some always see snow chances (I'm not saying you) pretty much every storm and I probably have reacted too strongly to that. Anyway, congrats to you and Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm pretty modest Wes. We all know that it was just a hair above luck to have a call so far in advance actually appear to be working out in my favor. All I ever said was that it appeared to be our first legit shot at a significant storm that may include winter weather. I'm pretty enamoured by the next 15 days but first things first.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS just really juiced it up on the xmas storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 it's a 0.6" thump It would actually probably be some decent snow this run with decent QPF thump and the 534 thickness line hovering about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS just really juiced it up on the xmas storm.. I swear the 18z is on snow crack nowadays. I'm on my phone and lazy. Where does the 500 vort pass? Still in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow maps show a sharp gradient- none in DC to 4" in Northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 it's a 0.6" thump WOW! If only that could be snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I swear the 18z is on snow crack nowadays. I'm on my phone and lazy. Where does the 500 vort pass? Still in PA? Almost right over top of us this run, nam was really juiced at 18z as well, could be a trend. Snow becoming more possible on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no...just to our south Is it any surprise? Anecdotal here but I swear these types of things are always sneaky. Harmless little vort just getting lucky and timing itself with some light waa precip or something like that. It would be a special event if anything happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How does the surface look on the 18z for Christmas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How does the surface look on the 18z for Christmas eve? Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 post xmas storm coming in much further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s 33/34, and with heavy precip and cold 850 thicknesses 534. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Toasty... Above freezing in the 30s Finally loaded for me. Not as bad as I thought it would be out this way. Cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 126 i guess we've gone back to just being able to post whatever we want in these threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 doesnt change much....still the same general idea.... some ice for all over to rain for a bit 95 areas then a solid backend thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no Sorry Matt, I'm in weenie mode right now, running on fumes man. The run is a bit of an improvement as it is colder than pvs runs, and 18z has been crazy the past few days. Regardless, I'm interested in the vort track of the xmas event, that has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Honestly, I think these maps need to be banned...they all suck, they are useless.. Oh I agree, the IWM.com maps are better, 24 hr accum through 129 has 2-3" DC/BAL, big totals into S PA and over into NW Virginia. 6-8" for OKV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 QPF drops off quite a bit on the 18z run down here in CHO. Dry slot seems progged for this area if the storm takes a more south-east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18Z didnt change much from 12Z. Maybe a little colder with both events. Temp issues still for the xmas storm. Decent snow storm on the model for MBY for the second storm. Def some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Folks, let's please keep these threads for analysis and discussion. Weenie snow maps, emoticon-only posts and the like belong in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I certainly overstated things by saying I'd be stunned if it changed as I didn't expect there to be no changes but didn't see any chance of the low going to our south and east enough for a snowstorm. I still think that is unlikely as the most likely track is still some type of miller b solution. I guess you'll consider my comments equivocated. I certainly did not see the storm coming as far east as it look like it will but still think the odds are that the storm track west of us which keeps most of us from getting a major winter storm. Could we get the latter, sure as I noted in my article. I guess part of the problem with communicating between us is that some always see snow chances (I'm not saying you) pretty much every storm and I probably have reacted too strongly to that. Anyway, congrats to you and Bob. Wes, you are a true met genius to many of us. Most of us here are here because we love weather, many of us loving winter weather over all of it. We learn so much from you, Ian, Matt, Bob, UsWx. It adds tremendously to our enjoyment of the weather. We haven't had much to celebrate. Not having this board would have made this December a maddening experience for many of us. I deserve no congrats. I've been skeptical of everything, good and bad. All I did was point out a pretty big upper air modeling change that last Sat 18z put out. It was a game changer for this storm. When it moved away from for a couple of days, we went right back to bad solutions (for us). As soon as it went back to flattening the heights in southern Canada, the good results came back. I've simply been doing a play by play on the height pattern. Just watching. I had no confidence in it either until the Euro started going that way too. I've learned, from this board, that until there's some common ground from the models that any one scenario is likely to be wrong. But anyway, thanks for being so gracious, you and others, and for allowing people like me who don't really know much to post and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. The NAM at 18z did something similar, the 18z models started the amped idea, I doubt its a trend but I mean we won't know til 0z and succeeding runs. Regardless, the 18z gfs has a more favorable vort passage relative to previous runs, though surface temperatures are still marginal. Overall though, the 540 thicknesses are favorable, and the sfc temps would in reality be around 33-34 for most. Its an improvement from the previous runs, but judging by the last few 18z rounds, I need to see more. The vort going just a tad more south from 18z would be optimal, and the verdict is still out on whether 0z follows up amping the system. The GGEM has been doing this for the last 4 days of runs, so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. Pretty tricky as the even the intesnity of the precip may play a role in the ptype. The much wetter 18Z GFS has the temps at 7PM xmas eve above freezing from just below 850mb to the surface at DCA with the max temp around 35 degrees within that layer. I'm not sure what the ptype would be with the sounding, either very wet snow or rain. A little earlier in the day, the sounding would support snow. Lighten the precip and that layer would most likely be warmer. The GFS is the strongest in handling that feature of any of the models so far. I think rain is more likely than snow but don't really know. Oops where you live, the chances of snow would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd love to hear some thoughts on the Christmas eve situation. I think the Euro is a pretty weak system, but marginally cold enough? Is the strong GFS solution a realistic possibility? It seems much stronger than the other models. It's seemed as though the vort max has gotten a bit more potent in the past few runs but I want to caution we still are 72 hrs out. In my experience these little buggers are notoriously finicky in regards to precip placement and often come down to now-casting situations. Temperatures are marginal and these little waves don't pack the punch to give 1in/hr + rates everywhere in order to make snow out of a marginal situation. In short, stay-tuned and don't get your hopes up. That way you'll either be pleasantly surprised or not dissapointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like every off hour run is colder than the 00Z o 12Z even for the xmas eve event. Both the 00Z GFS and NAm look rainy for the 1st event on this run. It will be interesting to see what the GFS does on the nxt one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS a little more north with the Christmas Eve event by 25-40 miles, but at 78 hrs it's really drilling the cold air south with the 0-850 line southbound at about Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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