Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 here is JYO WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.0 3.1 992 95 53 0.47 538 544 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -3.6 992 87 97 0.08 529 535 MRB is all frozen. A slight shift east could make Leesburg all frozen WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.4 -4.9 1020 72 100 0.03 556 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -3.7 1007 85 100 0.34 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -1.1 995 91 59 0.45 537 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -4.8 993 85 100 0.12 529 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -9.4 998 72 94 0.05 529 531 how about a shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 kinda overhead but it's not south of 0z.. in fact it may be a touch north as it passes this area... at least the 500 low ctr. maps are not the best for voriticity etc. That's fine. We're talking about a small feature days in advance and close enough. 100 miles is big diff here. GFS went through PA. Euro seem just a bit south of that. Flow on the models is just a bit flat. Add a little bend and voila. Little events love to sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DCA WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.8 1020 67 100 0.01 558 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.6 1.4 1004 95 100 0.33 553 550 THU 00Z 27-DEC 5.3 5.2 990 98 54 0.70 540 548 THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.0 -2.5 992 90 91 0.09 530 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.6 -8.7 996 74 97 0.02 528 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 here is JYO WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.0 3.1 992 95 53 0.47 538 544 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -3.6 992 87 97 0.08 529 535 MRB is all frozen. A slight shift east could make Leesburg all frozen WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.4 -4.9 1020 72 100 0.03 556 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -3.7 1007 85 100 0.34 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -1.1 995 91 59 0.45 537 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -4.8 993 85 100 0.12 529 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -9.4 998 72 94 0.05 529 531 MRG thicknesses suggests a warm layer, so sleet would be likely during height as Low is real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 how about a shift west? meterologically impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NE TN/Western NC to Annapolis Much to be resolved. Having it jump off the coast south of us is still very much on the table. These things are so subtle. Even so, we all know our climo and what to expect. Wraparound for the cities with an 850 track only slightly south and east in the big picture. How can we complain? Heck, I'm jumping for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meterologically impossible i still always bet on worse trends moving forward in this range but im a pessimist i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 winchester which is 25 miles west of me is all snow...seems like a crazy cut off point WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.6 -5.0 1020 73 100 0.05 556 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.5 -3.7 1006 89 100 0.37 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -0.9 994 93 67 0.45 536 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.6 -5.2 994 86 99 0.10 528 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -10.0 999 73 94 0.05 529 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Much to be resolved. Having it jump off the coast south of us is still very much on the table. These things are so subtle. Even so, we all know our climo and what to expect. Wraparound for the cities with an 850 track only slightly south and east in the big picture. How can we complain? Heck, I'm jumping for joy. As Wes said.,..Euro over wraps lows...992mb over eastern TN could easily be 1000mb over western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 and ric misses out again. we need a miracle to see any fzn out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That's fine. We're talking about a small feature days in advance and close enough. 100 miles is big diff here. GFS went through PA. Euro seem just a bit south of that. Flow on the models is just a bit flat. Add a little bend and voila. Little events love to sneak up on us. sorry. i responded about the main event anyway.. didn't realize you were asking about the christmas one. would have to look at another source probably. the 500 features are pretty subtle without the vorts shown. i wouldnt be too excited about that wave personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The warm layer will be above 850 mb so don't use that as your snow line. You can kind of see that on the GFS sounding that was posted earlier. It had not yet gotten above freezing in the warm layer but it was at around 800mb. The Euro is not that different than the 12Z GFS in terms of cold air damming. Both have a TN valley primary that transfers to the east of the mountains. Still it looks like it would start off out west with some snow before going to sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As Wes said.,..Euro over wraps lows...992mb over eastern TN could easily be 1000mb over western NC and the transfer could easily be much slower than shown too. tho really the stronger initial low didn't make much difference to the end result.. and it was east initially even tho stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As Wes said.,..Euro over wraps lows...992mb over eastern TN could easily be 1000mb over western NC But even western NC would bring warm air over us but would probably help guys out towards Leesburg and beyond. The other thing to worry about for snow guys is that snow line will probably be west of the 850 zero line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sorry. i responded about the main event anyway.. didn't realize you were asking about the christmas one. would have to look at another source probably. the 500 features are pretty subtle without the vorts shown. i wouldnt be too excited about that wave personally. No worries. I'm only hoping for some "mood" snow. The day is going to be great regardless of weather. We'll let the nam resolve inside of 48 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 But even western NC would bring warm air over us but would probably help guys out towards Leesburg and beyond. The other thing to worry about for snow guys is that snow line will probably be west of the 850 zero line. I think most of us near the cities know this is going to be iP/zr for the most part. Were just discussing what it takes for front snow. 95's best chance at accum snow would like be on the back and that's usually less than a 1 in 10 chance in these parts. Juicy storm though so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like a trip to HGR is a safe bet. As of now. Early transfer is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NE TN/Western NC to Annapolis So trending more northeasterly sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 here is JYO WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.0 3.1 992 95 53 0.47 538 544 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -3.6 992 87 97 0.08 529 535 MRB is all frozen. A slight shift east could make Leesburg all frozen WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.4 -4.9 1020 72 100 0.03 556 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -3.7 1007 85 100 0.34 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -1.1 995 91 59 0.45 537 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -4.8 993 85 100 0.12 529 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -9.4 998 72 94 0.05 529 531 Wow. Thanks for the data. Nice to see the coastal transfer still on the table with a TV low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 winchester which is 25 miles west of me is all snow...seems like a crazy cut off point WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.6 -5.0 1020 73 100 0.05 556 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.5 -3.7 1006 89 100 0.37 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -0.9 994 93 67 0.45 536 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.6 -5.2 994 86 99 0.10 528 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -10.0 999 73 94 0.05 529 531 Yeah. Its nice to see the Euro jumping on board. But I would think there is some sleet in there as well. Not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Long way to go, but if this plays out as currently portrayed, at least some recognition of the GFS is warranted. It first caught on to a system that would play out in this manner last Saturday. I'm sure someone can access old maps. It was its 18z run I believe. Nevertheless, I really like that the Euro seems to be joining the party. I also like it keeping the game alive for Christmas eve, especially with the GFS waffling on that one just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ens mean has pretty much the same track as the op. A little warmer initially but might just be the smoothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro looks alot like last nights GFS. Very similar with both the xmas storm and the DT storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Long way to go, but if this plays out as currently portrayed, at least some recognition of the GFS is warranted. It first caught on to a system that would play out in this manner last Saturday. I'm sure someone can access old maps. It was its 18z run I believe. Nevertheless, I really like that the Euro seems to be joining the party. I also like it keeping the game alive for Christmas eve, especially with the GFS waffling on that one just a bit. The Euro has been fairly consistent for like 3 or 4 runs now, while the GFS was still bouncing all over. Not sure it's "joining the party" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ens mean has pretty much the same track as the op. A little warmer initially but might just be the smoothing. damn..ensembles are always suppose to be more east and south/colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Euro has been fairly consistent for like 3 or 4 runs now, while the GFS was still bouncing all over. Not sure it's "joining the party" so to speak. It has been consistent, slightly trending east I guess. It was just hell bent on a Mississippi Valley cutter for so long. It was the last to ditch that idea. True, the GFS has done some bouncing, but in most runs for the past few days, it has indicated that a sig winter event was possible along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 What's the overall take on the Christmas Eve storm? Are we still "too close to call"? Seems like a weak system to me that just might come at a good time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It has been consistent, slightly trending east I guess. It was just hell bent on a Mississippi Valley cutter for so long. It was the last to ditch that idea. True, the GFS has done some bouncing, but in most runs for the past few days, it has indicated that a sig winter event was possible along the east coast. Well, as it's been noted numerous times the models have some biases.. euro often too wound up/west.. GFS too south/east. Add in selective memories and people can pick whichever model they want probably as the 'best'. The GFS was all over the place every run though until perhaps recently. So... hard to say it did stellar IMO.. not to mention we have time for shifts of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looking at the EC soundings, close to mainly snow in ROA-- much more ice/sleet in LYH. Definitely a thump type event where the bulk falls in 6 hours-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well, as it's been noted numerous times the models have some biases.. euro often too wound up/west.. GFS too south/east. Add in selective memories and people can pick whichever model they want probably as the 'best'. The GFS was all over the place every run though until perhaps recently. So... hard to say it did stellar IMO.. not to mention we have time for shifts of some sort. Oh yeah, I agree. The GFS lost this idea, and went the way of the Euro from about Sunday through I believe 18z on Tuesday. I think it started to flatten the flow again on that run. The Euro does wrap these things up, which would have led right into its massive cutter idea. I think both have really struggled this year beyond about 5 days. I think it has more to do with the pattern than the models, but I don't really have any knowledge to base that on. It just seems that one or the other, usually the Euro, in the past would have the general idea right a little bit more of the time. And, like you said, there's still time for this to be completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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