Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is a potentially sig winter event. It is still several days in the future, so I don't think we are to the point of seeing real model consistency yet. What is consistent is the cold air present when it arrives. Probably a mess. But it is fun to look forward to something. Without a doubt it needs to be watched closely. Next week is a big travel week before and after christmas. I'm sure the NWS is part of the reason that the NCEP server is so slow. LOL. I'm more stoked on it than I have been since the beginning and the subsequent shift away from a chi-town special really makes it fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pretty amazing shift! There were some mets calling for the east shift on the models and they should get some credit! Oh wait, they pump themselves up so we do not have to!!! LOL! Great call on the pattern Bob! Now just "Chill" it a bit more atmosphere and we will have the true Bob Chill storm! I am a bit busy today - anyone have an idea how close this was to 0Z? Any trends we are seeing (other than the obvious) that could make it more favorable? Like the Christmas Eve/Day system. Thanks all! EDIT: Read through posts - Bob and Matt answered almost all of this! Thanks again! Disregard answering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is the Christmas mini storm the one to key on? Won t its final outcome whatever it turns out to be, have a direct bearing on how the Chill storm tracks? And if so can someone explain it to this novice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 euro is a little colder for xmas eve/xmas event. still pretty marginal south of md/pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 euro is a little colder for xmas eve/xmas event. still pretty marginal south of md/pa border. check out that 5H map on day 4 big 50/50 and another lobe coming SE on the SW side here http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h96&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quite a bit stronger with the next low in the south. Central MS, N AL, E TN track so far. Low a bit east of 0z.. good CAD so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 day 5 850 temp and winds http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like another big run for NW areas in particular.. transfer happening a bit earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 day 5 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like another big run for NW areas in particular.. transfer happening a bit earlier.. u/l low is pretty far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Quite a bit stronger with the next low in the south. Central MS, N AL, E TN track so far. Low a bit east of 0z.. good CAD so far. warning criteria frozen event for the favored locations...MRB/HGR etc...maybe even IAD/JYO...992mb low over Annapolis..cool event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 euro is a little colder for xmas eve/xmas event. still pretty marginal south of md/pa border. define start as snow in Leesburg for christmas event but then changes to rain. Definitely colder and more qpf than 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 132 has low just east of DC area.. so warmth punches in for many, lotso precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 warning criteria frozen event for the favored locations...MRB/HGR etc...maybe even IAD/JYO...992mb low over Annapolis..cool event meh....that's pretty far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like another big run for NW areas in particular.. transfer happening a bit earlier.. this is close to a snowstorm for MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meh....that's pretty far inland for what?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I really hate 12-24 hour panels. What is the best estimate irt to location for transfer? CAD is an immobile component of this system on all models. Not a bad thing to have that consistently show over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Holy Cow--Euro gives me at least 3 inches of snow WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 for what?.. for a worthwhile period of frozen precip but there's plenty of time one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 euro is a little colder for xmas eve/xmas event. still pretty marginal south of md/pa border. vort still tracking n through pa or more overhead? That little thing could end up south of us and let us have some fun. It's not a dead deal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How far does it climb before jumping? NE TN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Holy Cow--Euro gives me at least 3 inches of snow WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 could you check BWI? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 end result pretty similar to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I really hate 12-24 hour panels. What is the best estimate irt to location for transfer? CAD is an immobile component of this system on all models. Not a bad thing to have that consistently show over and over again. NE TN/Western NC to Annapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 could you check BWI? thanks a 1-2 inches before changeover and then you hit 42 lol WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.1 -1.5 1021 68 94 0.00 558 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.1 -0.6 1007 91 99 0.22 554 549 THU 00Z 27-DEC 6.0 5.2 991 95 30 0.76 540 548 THU 06Z 27-DEC 1.5 -0.5 990 92 86 0.11 531 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 you can see on Day 6 the block in south central Canada has moved east so the GL becomes a magnet for the 5H low http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 vort still tracking n through pa or more overhead? That little thing could end up south of us and let us have some fun. It's not a dead deal yet. kinda overhead but it's not south of 0z.. in fact it may be a touch north as it passes this area... at least the 500 low ctr. maps are not the best for voriticity etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 for a worthwhile period of frozen precip but there's plenty of time one way or the other me and you are in a bad location for this one/...still could see some onset snow/sleet...and then something at the end...especially you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 a 1-2 inches before changeover and then you hit 42 lol WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.1 -1.5 1021 68 94 0.00 558 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.1 -0.6 1007 91 99 0.22 554 549 THU 00Z 27-DEC 6.0 5.2 991 95 30 0.76 540 548 THU 06Z 27-DEC 1.5 -0.5 990 92 86 0.11 531 539 thanks looks like it would switch back for some conversational snow I'll take that in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 here is JYO WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.8 -3.2 1020 67 100 0.02 557 541 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -1.1 1005 89 99 0.30 551 548 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.0 3.1 992 95 53 0.47 538 544 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -3.6 992 87 97 0.08 529 535 MRB is all frozen. A slight shift east could make Leesburg all frozen WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.4 -4.9 1020 72 100 0.03 556 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -3.7 1007 85 100 0.34 550 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -1.1 995 91 59 0.45 537 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -4.8 993 85 100 0.12 529 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -9.4 998 72 94 0.05 529 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.