Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sfc low way west but not that wrapped up...we all start frozen early morn on the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Storm seems drier too compared to last night Just not meeting up with the waa to the south of it. They need to get together and party in central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 still a nasty storm for NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 sfc low way west but not that wrapped up...we all start frozen early morn on the 26th Visually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yea, you can see the change @ 500 and the handling of the xmas wave isn't going to be as east friendly as we hoped. Apps track with CAD/Ice. I don't even need to see the rest I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Visually nice...sfc CAD really entrenched...a solid .4" of frozen for the further out NW burbs through 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 that ridge in Canada was really pressing south through at least 108 hrs which gives me some hope not enough help there later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 not enough help there later on. 996mb 30 mi east of Rehoboth,...there is some consistency here with a potentially real nasty ice event for far NW burbs with some possible wraparound snows...we all may start as snow sleet...wont nail down the sfc until much closer..will be a tricky forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yea, you can see the change @ 500 and the handling of the xmas wave isn't going to be as east friendly as we hoped. Apps track with CAD/Ice. I don't even need to see the rest I don't think. it's all good. We knew there was a good probability that it would head more W than E. I think we can just monitor it and whatever front end stuff we get will be better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well since the ensembles showed some West and some East seems to me this type of run was on the table...nobody should be surprised if the next run goes back the other way...still 5 days or so away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 it's all good. We knew there was a good probability that it would head more W than E. I think we can just monitor it and whatever front end stuff we get will be better than nothing. run after run a lot of people stay below freezing....this is interesting to track....Are people seriously hoping all of the sudden the models are going to start showing an I-95 snowstorm...that is a pretty bad and kind of stupid bar to set when watching these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 996mb 30 mi east of Rehoboth,...there is some consistency here with a potentially real nasty ice event for far NW burbs with some possible wraparound snows...we all may start as snow sleet...wont nail down the sfc until much closer..will be a tricky forecast It is very tricky. NWS is going to have to throw out the kitchen sink on Sunday if this continues. Takeaway: Track not all that different last few runs. Models have a difficult time resolving transfers because they are so subtle. Really recognizable cad sig has been showing up for days. There is a high probability of frozen precip at this point. Maybe all 3 kinds. Good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well since the ensembles showed some West and some East seems to me this type of run was on the table...nobody should be surprised if the next run goes back the other way...still 5 days or so away. what are people's expectations?...Are people watching these runs hoping they will show a DC snowstorm?...I don't really get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 996mb 30 mi east of Rehoboth,...there is some consistency here with a potentially real nasty ice event for far NW burbs with some possible wraparound snows...we all may start as snow sleet...wont nail down the sfc until much closer..will be a tricky forecast CAD is sometimes more fun that straight up snow. How quickly it gets scoured out varies so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It is very tricky. NWS is going to have to throw out the kitchen sink on Sunday if this continues. Takeaway: Track not all that different last few runs. Models have a difficult time resolving transfers because they are so subtle. Really recognizable cad sig has been showing up for days. There is a high probability of frozen precip at this point. Maybe all 3 kinds. Good enough for me. absolutely and keeps screaming WWA or even potentially WSW's for ice for MRB/HGR etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 absolutely and keeps screaming WWA or even potentially WSW's for ice for MRB/HGR etc.... I think you and I have been precisely on the same page for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Expectations...was kinda hoping for maybe 2-3 inches, just to see the ground white again. Even if it gets washed away with a changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 what are people's expectations?...Are people watching these runs hoping they will show a DC snowstorm?...I don't really get that? I consider this a good run for some wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This would be a neat storm if it bookends after all is said and done. Start frozen, end frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I consider this a good run for some wintry precip. definitely...maybe not so much for me and you, but we get some front end frozen...maybe a few hours....maybe 20 minutes....but still...you could be 30-32 for quite a while since your precise location tends to stay cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Expectations...was kinda hoping for maybe 2-3 inches, just to see the ground white again. Even if it gets washed away with a changeover to rain. If anything it would get glaciated. We all know how expecting backside snow in these parts is typically a kick in the backside but it's cold at the surface through many runs. I think any ip, zr, or even slushy snow would get frozen in place as the system departs. I'm not ruling out a change to snow at the end because the setup shows promise in that dept. It's not smart to expect it but ruling it out isn't smart either. I suspect anything we get frozen will still be around the morning after. Maybe pic worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 definitely...maybe not so much for me and you, but we get some front end frozen...maybe a few hours....maybe 20 minutes....but still...you could be 30-32 for quite a while since your precise location tends to stay cold I will take any frozen! Chilly on the 27th, might stick around freezing for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 what are people's expectations?...Are people watching these runs hoping they will show a DC snowstorm?...I don't really get that? I don't think anyone knows what their expectations are save a few. I for one am having fun watching the models run...I mentioned that several days ago. I'm sure there are some holding out hope for a snowstorm but they are the ones who always do. I do think though that it was hammered in our heads that this was purely a rainstorm with no or very little chance of frozen early on so the changes have been fun to watch. But anyway...I'm hoping for more sleet than freezing rain...besides freezing rain at 31 really isn't an issue...if we are in the 20's then that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Expectations...was kinda hoping for maybe 2-3 inches, just to see the ground white again. Even if it gets washed away with a changeover to rain. this isn't a bad run to actually believe the backlash might not be its usually fantasy...the sfc low track isn't ideal for that, but the base of the 500mb trough swings right over us and could enhance any chances, especially where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If we get anything frozen, its a win win. Draw a line from Hereford to Thurmont to Martinsburg and you'll do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If anything it would get glaciated. We all know how expecting backside snow in these parts is typically a kick in the backside but it's cold at the surface through many runs. I think any ip, zr, or even slushy snow would get frozen in place as the system departs. I'm not ruling out a change to snow at the end because the setup shows promise in that dept. It's not smart to expect it but ruling it out isn't smart either. I suspect anything we get frozen will still be around the morning after. Maybe pic worthy. Frozen over a groundcover snow would be a lot better than anything we have seen in 23 months, so that would be pretty damn ok if it goes down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 storm after the Chill storm is still there that is very, very encouraging no matter what happens next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here is the IAD sounding at 120hrs...the snow arrives a couple hours before this...maybe hour 118? very close to sleet if not there, but maybe an hour or 2 of snow before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here is the IAD sounding at 120hrs...the snow arrives a couple hours before this...maybe hour 118? very close to sleet if not there, but maybe an hour or 2 of snow before that you get a slightly east jog and areas like JYO could be snow for several hours if not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is a potentially sig winter event. It is still several days in the future, so I don't think we are to the point of seeing real model consistency yet. What is consistent is the cold air present when it arrives. Probably a mess. But it is fun to look forward to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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