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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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The HRRR takes elevation a bit too much into account for its snowfall. 12-18" on South Mountian? Really?

Yeah, I hear you. I wasn't saying it was right. DT stopped short of saying it was right but did say, "HRRR MODEL very good short range model-- shows good snows for WESTERN and NW VA... to 10pm ..."

I probably shouldn't have posted it at all, but I want snow...

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Before bed thoughts on tomorrow:

Timing on the precip is everything tomorrow morning because by 1 pm we're all rain except for the Shenandoah Valley /I-81 corridor. I think even SE-DC/PG and Annapolis (and N) could start as a bit of sleet or snow before going to all rain by 10AM. Areas NW of I95 should start as snow before going to sleet and then rain. Areas S and E of IAD or MD200 should be all rain by 11:30AM. Leesburg/Fredrick/Westminster by 12:30 and everyone else outside of the Shenandoah by 1. I'm thinking .15 to .3" of QPF across the entire area by 1 PM.

Windy and Rainy the rest of the day.

Noon and still snowing well in many spots. Bust?

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