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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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I'm pretty new and do not post much. Is this topic the xmas eve or post xmas storm? Looks like the post are refering to both. Like most of you, I have lived in the area all my life and just by viewing the maps you can tell if something just does not seem correct. I think the clipper system snow will mainly be confined above the mason dixon line but with some slushy dustings if you will to the south. Could be a nice surprise. As for a the post xmas system, the 6z GFS has a primary with no transfer to the coast. This is what looks odd. To highs to the north, I really believe the primary low will make it to the Tennessee/Kentucky area and then a low will form somewhere along the immediate coast of Va.

Depending on how fast the primary low weakens will dictate the precip types in the area as will as dictating the new low strength. I can see this even appearing like a double barrel low for a period giving some areas a pretty good sleet storm. The CAD feature could be a prolonged event depending on how the tranfering of enegies evolve from one low to the next and seeing how the models handle the high pressures. I believe something similar to this would occure. At any rate, it will be fun to watch what happens, regardless of outcome.

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Hard to tell on Euro, limited access, limited convo, but sounds like it came our way a tad. GFS is a close call even on its good runs that it doesn't take much of a shift to put us on the edge.

You're in a better spot than most closer to I-95 but every shift will affect you more one way or the other.

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I'm pretty new and do not post much. Is this topic the xmas eve or post xmas storm? Looks like the post are refering to both. Like most of you, I have lived in the area all my life and just by viewing the maps you can tell if something just does not seem correct. I think the clipper system snow will mainly be confined above the mason dixon line but with some slushy dustings if you will to the south. Could be a nice surprise. As for a the post xmas system, the 6z GFS has a primary with no transfer to the coast. This is what looks odd. To highs to the north, I really believe the primary low will make it to the Tennessee/Kentucky area and then a low will form somewhere along the immediate coast of Va.

Depending on how fast the primary low weakens will dictate the precip types in the area as will as dictating the new low strength. I can see this even appearing like a double barrel low for a period giving some areas a pretty good sleet storm. The CAD feature could be a prolonged event depending on how the tranfering of enegies evolve from one low to the next and seeing how the models handle the high pressures. I believe something similar to this would occure. At any rate, it will be fun to watch what happens, regardless of outcome.

Agree. Tenessee would be better and further east I think. But some in the se thread think a miller A is on the table. I believe this will be a miller B and the primary will go futher north because the block is not crazy strong. I also think the CAD will hold longer than modeled as per usual. This is much better than tracking warmth.

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GFS ensemble means look quite nice. Several members give us a predominately snow event. A few also still take the storm well west of the Apps (Cleveland-Buffalo) and a couple are surpressed off the SE coast. Still a lot of play here, but what's encouraging is almost every solution gives us (DC-Balt I-95 and points north/west) at least SOME freezing/frozen precip during the storm.

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6Z took a step in the wrong direction. The only sure thing right now is that there is no sure thing. Every model run is different. Although it does appear temps are going to be an issue for the xmas storm.

Most, not all, but most of the GFS ens members have the Christmas eve precip as a marginal event, and the Chill storm as a significant winter event whether it be snow, sleet, freezing rain.

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I went to bed early last night but just went through all the runs. Heh, lotsa possibilities huh?

Xmas wave looks so/so but that's totally cool. It's a bonus anyway. Vort track will determine everything so I'm not too concerned yet. 850's, surface, and thicknesses are awful close for the big cities. Won't take much to swing it one way or the other. FWIW- 6z NAM has a better look and track @ 500 for the xmas storm. I'm mostly going to pay attention to the ul's on the xmas event. It's awful small and not very strong so we need optimal track and any help we can get with strength. Early guess is a ground whitener near the big cities with the highest rates (don't appear to last long but who knows. Just a guess).

Prime time storm sure looks tasty for someone. I'm a little nervous with the thread title. LOL. I'm put into the precarious position of being a hero or zero all because I liked something a gagillion hours out. But I've never hyped or weenied out and always said that it was a window for "some" form of winter precip. And it still most certainly is.

No jump to the coast and we get ip/ice. That seems pretty obvious. Really nice 1030+ hp in a good spot in Canada. We all know what the NAM panels would look like if it was 48 hours out. The surface freezing line would be bending way down the blue ridge and that cold airmass would be real stubborn to get out of the way. Great N-NE surface flow with a strong high and we could get some nice ice in the burbs. Possible some early flakes too if the column is good but at this point an apps runner looks like ip/zr. I'll take it. It would be a fun event regardless.

Some sort of hybrid storm is almost impossible to figure out until virtually nowcast time. Such little things mean so much. I'm not going to add a single detail irt a hybrid scenario that hasn't already been said in the thread.

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Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge.

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Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge.

which likely means storm 2 is further north/west

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Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge.

Storm seems drier too compared to last night

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yea, you can see the change @ 500 and the handling of the xmas wave isn't going to be as east friendly as we hoped. Apps track with CAD/Ice. I don't even need to see the rest I don't think.

it's all good. We knew there was a good probability that it would head more W than E. I think we can just monitor it and whatever front end stuff we get will be better than nothing.

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996mb 30 mi east of Rehoboth,...there is some consistency here with a potentially real nasty ice event for far NW burbs with some possible wraparound snows...we all may start as snow sleet...wont nail down the sfc until much closer..will be a tricky forecast

It is very tricky. NWS is going to have to throw out the kitchen sink on Sunday if this continues.

Takeaway:

Track not all that different last few runs. Models have a difficult time resolving transfers because they are so subtle. Really recognizable cad sig has been showing up for days. There is a high probability of frozen precip at this point. Maybe all 3 kinds. Good enough for me.

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996mb 30 mi east of Rehoboth,...there is some consistency here with a potentially real nasty ice event for far NW burbs with some possible wraparound snows...we all may start as snow sleet...wont nail down the sfc until much closer..will be a tricky forecast

CAD is sometimes more fun that straight up snow. How quickly it gets scoured out varies so much.

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Expectations...was kinda hoping for maybe 2-3 inches, just to see the ground white again. Even if it gets washed away with a changeover to rain.

If anything it would get glaciated. We all know how expecting backside snow in these parts is typically a kick in the backside but it's cold at the surface through many runs. I think any ip, zr, or even slushy snow would get frozen in place as the system departs.

I'm not ruling out a change to snow at the end because the setup shows promise in that dept. It's not smart to expect it but ruling it out isn't smart either.

I suspect anything we get frozen will still be around the morning after. Maybe pic worthy.

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