AlYourWxPal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 With surface low pressure over Alabama right now in turn having the storm more south and east than modeled will this allow HP to funnel in more cooler air down to Southern VA or if storm goes more south and east will it be harder to scour out low level air? Just curious Yes, you would continue have a N to NNE wind keeping in the cold air locked in at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. we have been watching this so long I will be happy to see it come and go...the thing I am most interested in seeing is how far north it gets before moving east....even a 50 mile difference may mean holding the cold longer...I remember a few days ago when it was thought this would plow deep into Ohio as a 992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm thinking IAD NW will start as snow and mix/change over to rain by around noon. Maybe the same amounts of the storm yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If that NAM/GFS clown maps ever seemed legit. (Not really, but we all look at them) NAM gives me 4 inches-- at best, my profile supports some sleet for 3-4 hours. What in the world are they using. (Allen Huffman's sight-- Twister gives me an inch or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the rainfall totals are going to be in record breaking territory (for the day, that is) so it (snow) will all be gone by 12Z Thursday for anyone in our area <2K' asl 12/26 record precip for the day is 1.31" and 12/27 is 1.21" the only thing that may prevent breaking one of those records is that half, more or less, will fall before/after midnight on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS The RAP agrees, the NAM says "Yeah, right, straight to sleet for you!, the HRRR agrees with the RAP. Interesting short-term model battle unfolding. My bet is slightly towards the HRRR/RAP idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The nam is really way off from all other guidance now. Not saying its wrong. Perhaps with its higher res it can see something the others are missing but it blasts the warm layer way north of all other models early tomorrow. It doesn't matter as much here but in east central pa for instance it's the difference between 6-12" and almost nothing. Amazing. I remember one similar scenario with the v-day storm in 2007 and the nam was right with the warm layer getting way further north in pa then other guidance. We will see this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Up 3 degrees in the past hour. Had bottomed at 30, but clouds came in and the breeze continues to increase. 33 with a North wind at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS Big difference a few miles east of leesburg where nothing is left as of this morning. Only got a 1/2 inch here. Might be as close a difference tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 indianapolis now in a blizzard warning. this storm is going to blanket some folks up north that stay snow. lots of moisture to work with. pretty impressive looking storm on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Before bed thoughts on tomorrow: Timing on the precip is everything tomorrow morning because by 1 pm we're all rain except for the Shenandoah Valley /I-81 corridor. I think even SE-DC/PG and Annapolis (and N) could start as a bit of sleet or snow before going to all rain by 10AM. Areas NW of I95 should start as snow before going to sleet and then rain. Areas S and E of IAD or MD200 should be all rain by 11:30AM. Leesburg/Fredrick/Westminster by 12:30 and everyone else outside of the Shenandoah by 1. I'm thinking .15 to .3" of QPF across the entire area by 1 PM. Windy and Rainy the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1121 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ====================================== PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man euro is really cold for this storm .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man euro is really cold for this storm .. Yea it shows several inches out this way. Down to 34/29 right now, gonna be up early tomorrow and check out what it looks like then. 2-4" would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 2-3 inches FTW in Woodbridge Virginia - You can definitely take that to the bank. Of RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 OMG I haven't been in these threads here for so long I've forgotten what a crackhead jebman is. Anyways, DCA is 37/28 and IAD is 35/25 as of 3AM. Virga beginning to overspread the area, although the time between virga & storm onset should be short. Composite radar is your best friend for hallucinations. Base actually isn't much worse, but it's clear there is minor dry air the precipitation will have to work through. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The cold rain storm has started here about 30 minutes ago, at 35/33. Never had a horse in this race anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well the NAM is either going to score the coup or it is going down with the ship. Its even warmer at 6z. It doesn't matter as much for our area, the difference between an inch or two of frozen and nothing...but its even more pronounced just north of us where all other guidance shows 6" or more and the NAM would imply just a quick change to rain. major difference right to the end, very interesting to see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS is colder even has .5 QPF in NW VA with 850s below 0c at 12 hrs. IAD N and W is 32 per 2m at 12 hrs while DCA is 34ish and rising. DCA is 32 at 9 hrs wth over .25 QPF already and is or about to change to rain from sleet I would think. Someone is busting badly... NAM or GFS. By 21z everyone should be rain except way NW corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe this should be in the observation thread but I'm waking up to a decent amount of sleet pings and some flakes mixed in....not what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 SN in Stauton at 5am... -SN in CHO... 33/34 degrees. -RN at EZF but dropping temps 39/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Low overcast at 535am 36 degrees with 28 dewpoint. Light north wind. Virga overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sitting at 34 with DP of 28. Fully expect to start as a mix with mainly sleet and then flip to rain in a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 In a lull but had some snow and sleet down here in LYH mixed with rain. Coated the cars ( I was asleep-- but saw pics and left overs on cars) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 5:45 am WV update:snowing 30 dp 27 solid coating over old snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6am Woodbridge VA 36 degrees 29 dewpoint with steady snow; coating on car top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Light snow just started here in Centreville just before 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Woodbrige snow; wind NE@12; temp 32 NOVA Woodbridge Weatherbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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