mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 depending on exact location probably very brief snow then a mix of sleet/rain for a few hours...maybe some flakes mixed in....then all rain thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 depending on exact location probably very brief snow then a mix of sleet/rain for a few hours...maybe some flakes mixed in....then all rain Sorry for the the IMBY post, but what about FDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Sorry for the the IMBY post, but what about FDK? Matt mentioned if you got snow yesterday you look to start out frozen with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right I have seen those floating a round...how do you get them? I have never seen the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I have seen those floating a round...how do you get them? I have never seen the link? http://www.wunderground.com/ Highlight "Maps and Radar" Select Wundermap Scroll through Layers to find Model Data- check that Select model and parameter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here is the EURO at 18Z tomorrow, snowfall, per wunderground. Even Wes gets in on the flaking, strange looking 2" to 3" protuberance in Wes' backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast they had us in snow a couple of times already this year even with Sandy. I'm also not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LWX dropped from WSW to a WWA until you get west of CBE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast A lot of mets show them online and stuff. Not completely sure why tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 LWX dropped from WSW to a WWA until you get west of CBE. Not sure I understand that, but I didn't understand their forecast of rain for me yesterday morning when the forecast the night before was for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 The NAM is cold here, and now more in line with the GFS on timing of precip. Shows us barely reaching freezing through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not sure I understand that, but I didn't understand their forecast of rain for me yesterday morning when the forecast the night before was for snow. Its marginal cold trying to hold against a heck of a warm push. 18Z NAM brings in the precip faster than 12Z did, and if that's accurate we might see a quick 2-3" of snow early. Imagine we sleet pretty hard after that, and when the rain comes we should be close enough to 32 that heavy rates won't accrete well. Higher elevations might warrant a warning, but it gets confusing if you WSW a whole county for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right Would be nice if we got some accumulation around here but I am not counting on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z NAM crushes Cumberland. Close to 5" of snow, then a half-inch of FZRA with temps rising through the mid-upper 20's. http://www.meteor.ia...l=namm&site=cbe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Theres definitely still a chill in the air...clouds have a wintry look...wouldnt surprise me at all to see some frozen stuff to start. Side note...radar down south is angry looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS looks decent for moderate wintry precip prior to changeover... I think McLean sees 1-3" then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z NAM crushes Cumberland. Close to 5" of snow, then a half-inch of FZRA with temps rising through the mid-upper 20's. http://www.meteor.ia...l=namm&site=cbe Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. To my knowledge, it doesn't have OKV. To get Martinsburg, use KMRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z NAM snow output. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For us close to metro folks it's bleak at best but not a frozen shutout. You can already see with hourly temps the hagerstown and winchester are running 5-10 degrees below folks closer to the beltways. It's all going to come down to temps at onset. Stating the obvious of course but if you are 30 or below in the early morning hours you can pull off some frozen. Maybe some flakes...or pellets....or even a period of zr but we all know it's going to be a car washer for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. You could use Woodstock (WOO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For us close to metro folks it's bleak at best but not a frozen shutout. You can already see with hourly temps the hagerstown and winchester are running 5-10 degrees below folks closer to the beltways. It's all going to come down to temps at onset. Stating the obvious of course but if you are 30 or below in the early morning hours you can pull off some frozen. Maybe some flakes...or pellets....or even a period of zr but we all know it's going to be a car washer for the most part. With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. I'm sure I'm doomed except something "interesting" on the front end. Prob not gonna last long at all imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My backyard needs the rain. We were dry for awhile. I'll get plenty of rain, probably 2-3 inches' worth. I hope Leesburg gets a foot of snow and Davis West Virginia gets three feet of snow. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. The NAM still gives you a few inches before changing over. I had completely forgotten/given up on this storm but the combination of EURO + GFS is promising, and the NAM is only marginally worse (and still gives us some snow). DCA will only see a T (or an inch, at best), but I think IAD will record ~4". Also of note is that NYC will see almost nothing at all, so I'm not sad about missing this storm up there (although I do love living above 40N because the line does indeed seem to be magical). The gradient will be entirely East-West as opposed to N/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Have looked over the soundings for 18z. NAM is warmer, GFS is colder for the Shenandoah and Cumberland valleys. The warmer air seems to always come in aloft pretty fast, but the wind at the surface is NNE to almost due north so expect the cold air to remain trapped for a long time. May not get above freezing in many areas. Freezing rain is the big issue with this, but could get a good thump of snow at the onset. That's my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just enough cirrus to create a halo around the moon. Otherwise, clear and radiating well here. At least 75% snow cover remains from yesterday. 32 degrees at 7:15. Winds N at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 With surface low pressure over Alabama right now in turn having the storm more south and east than modeled will this allow HP to funnel in more cooler air down to Southern VA or if storm goes more south and east will it be harder to scour out low level air? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.