Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think most of us would be happy with this outcome. Through 150 156 is better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 the cities turn back to snow at the end too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS has a solid 3-4" snow stripe up the WV/VA border thru n NJ with two bullseyes to 4"+ for first wave Tho as I noted in the other thread it also has 4-8" over NE MD by 15z tomorrow... I dunno on the other storm... either does the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS gives me 3" on Christmas event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS has a solid 3-4" snow stripe up the WV/VA border thru n NJ with two bullseyes to 4"+ for first wave Tho as I noted in the other thread it also has 4-8" over NE MD by 15z tomorrow... I dunno on the other storm... either does the GFS. Would really like to see your favorite model come on board later on. Especially the Christmas eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pretty interesting...still so far away though...it's only Friday tomorrow...yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pretty interesting...still so far away though...it's only Friday tomorrow...yeesh 1st event is w/in reasonable reach of the GFS I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Would really like to see your favorite model come on board later on. Especially the Christmas eve storm. It does seem there is some decent consensus that the mtns into the foothills can do well at least. The Euro has been pasting places not terribly far to the northwest tho the max is further northwest than this run of the GFS. We're still kinda far out though. I mean, we're pushing what's sensible more and more all the time when we track from day 14. The 500 low is pretty far north on the GFS for DC area.. tho you can get some wraparound for sure on a sys like that. Blend might shift the GFS a bit more west but who knows given all the bouncing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hmmm, I sorta like that look from this distance http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F21%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=276&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Next storm is on still-- Accu gets the extracted data much faster than the maps. ROA gets near an inch-- baro hits 996, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is that the New Years storm Huff? That's the one I am waiting to see. Nevermind. It looks like a cutter. But obviously way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is that the New Years storm Huff? That's the one I am waiting to see. It's a big storm again - but a cutter this time. Other than some front end stuff, we get drenched and the Low heads for the Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is that the New Years storm Huff? That's the one I am waiting to see. Yeah, comes in late on the First down here-- looks to be a miller b-- reforms to my east. Decent antecedent cold air via model. About an inch qpf most of VA or more. Per model, cold air BOOKS and you mix or rain. Weird were ROA holds on to cold air longer because they get storm first. (AKA- never happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The beginning of January is looking very cold. Almost the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 fun solution...i'll let you guys watch it play out...would be a horribly tricky forecast.... looks like Leesburg stays below 32 for the entire storm although its certainly not all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The beginning of January is looking very cold. Almost the entire country. cfs2 has a brutal january for us http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20121220.201301.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 cfs2 has a brutal january for us http://www.cpc.ncep....1220.201301.gif Well thats good to see. Now we just need the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro shows 4 inches for Ji before flip over. I feel like its trending more towards Gfs than other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro shows 4 inches for Ji before flip over. I feel like its trending more towards Gfs than other way around We are in a decent spot for the next 5-7 days here at JYO. Take whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good Gfs run at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 06Z GFS still likes the idea of getting some light accumulating snow into Baltimore and possibly DC just in time for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow horrible. Now euro is more wintry than Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'll chalk up 6z to goofy run like last night 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Besides some initial frozen the GFS is warm, wet and west. Big jump from the off runs showing a suppressed solution recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no solution is etched in stone so... enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no solution is etched in stone so... enjoy the ride Considering there is still 5+ days before the storm it should be interesting to see how it does play out. I will say though it seems that the models are starting to converge on a solution of a track just to our west where the mountains and those to the north of us do very well in terms of snow and where we look to have a potential for a slop fest to a decent ice storm for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z gfs seems like the most reasonable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS ensemble mean is east of the op and suggest a much more wintery look for the region. But it looks as if there is a wide spread of solutions between its members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hard to tell on Euro, limited access, limited convo, but sounds like it came our way a tad. GFS is a close call even on its good runs that it doesn't take much of a shift to put us on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks as though the 6z gfs matches the euro ensembles...track screams rain for most probably too eary on temps but........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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