TradeWinds Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well I'm not. Equality should be emphasized when it comes to winter storms in the greater D.C. are. Equality. Yeah but you all get all the fun summer severe weather when we get shafted. I'll be about 30 miles NW of Pittsburgh at 1200' this storm instead of Frederick so I think I'll get to see some good snows for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro 3-4 inch thump leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro 3-4 inch thump leesburg euro is interesting...I wonder about the layer above 850mb and how quickly you go to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 WSW posted for next row of counties - Nelson, Greene, Northern Fauquier, Loudoun, Madison, Albermarle - through Wed night. Interesting move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 06Z GFS is in good agreement with the 00 run if maybe a touch slower. If correct the OOZ and the 06 suggest the potential for a decent period of frozen slop for north and west of DC and Baltimore before a change over to just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The last 4 runs of the SREF have trended slightly south and east with the storm but have shown very little changes with the temps. If the temp profiles are correct they suggest little to no frozen whatsoever except for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS and EURO certainly are interesting for the beginning of this storm out here....NAM is blech...we shall see.. MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLLIDAYS everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS and EURO certainly are interesting for the beginning of this storm out here....NAM is blech...we shall see.. MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLLIDAYS everyone Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and everyone else as well. Haven't really followed the NAM that closely but will be now with it being within 48 hours. You wouldn't know off hand if it's temp profiles have stayed consistent or if they have trended warmer or colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS and EURO certainly are interesting for the beginning of this storm out here....NAM is blech...we shall see.. MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLLIDAYS everyone Every time I look at a model, this low seems just a bit further east and the transfer a bit further south. The NAM has this in NE AL tomorrow morning. I can't tell where the Euro is exactly because of the 24 hr jumps, but it looks coolish. I know location is a big deal with this one, but this may have been written off too quickly. Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and everyone else as well. Haven't really followed the NAM that closely but will be now with it being within 48 hours. You wouldn't know off hand if it's temp profiles have stayed consistent or if they have trended warmer or colder? Colder. For my area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Colder. For my area anyway. Though the GFS has steadily trended colder in my area suggesting a fairly substantial slopfest the NAM and the SREF's are the ones I put more weight into considering the time frame we are at with the storm. At this point both suggest little to no frozen outside of the mountains and should really raise a red flag for anyone in the area hoping for more then a token snow flake or sleet pellet. Here's hoping we start seeing them coming in with substantially colder runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice to see LWX throwing up a winter storm watch for Loudoun and pts S and W and N. Im still thinking we start out with some snow and ice mix for a few hours then a flip to a cold rain. But it is nice to wake up to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ice Storm Warning here......yuck Time to pull out the generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rgem looks interesting....12z gfs shows about 2-3" of frozen before raining. Nam still warm but a tad colder and less wet...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not. The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain. Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather. Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not. The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain. Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather. Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight. fringed by the cold air....would be poetic justice for me to get rain while just to my West is pummeled after yesterday's snow.....always on the line here...sometimes it works sometimes no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is a nasty storm for out here. Another 2-4 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice. 2M temps stay below freezing for entire event. Looks like around 8-10 hours of snow/sleet followed by 6-8 hours of freezing rain. Gonna be awful road conditions tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. Ellinwoods thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. that looks like an Ellinwood map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 that looks like an Ellinwood map It is. I clarified my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. Ellinwoods thoughts. That's bullish. Good luck with the forecast, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The euro is a major storm for the same areas that got snow yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The euro is a major storm for the same areas that got snow yesterday most folks flip to rain by mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The euro is a major storm for the same areas that got snow yesterday That CAD signature on the EC is beautiful for the northern Shenandoah Valley. 30.45"+ pressure over Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro destroys me with .60 frozen temps 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That CAD signature on the EC is beautiful for the northern Shenandoah Valley. 30.45"+ pressure over Montreal. I don't have soundings for the euro, but using GFS soundings you flip around 2-3pm......maybe to sleet a bit earlier....I know some people like to use the NAM but it is not a good model...not sure it is worth a whole lot unless it a vast improvement over last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the other thing about the euro is the colossal amount of precip...just huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the other thing about the euro is the colossal amount of precip...just huge how much frozen precip do you think for those us in or around the 2 beltways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm supposed to drive to my mothers in the morning....does the euro suggest I may be late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 how much frozen precip do you think for those us in or around the 2 beltways? depending on exact location probably very brief snow then a mix of sleet/rain for a few hours...maybe some flakes mixed in....then all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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