87storms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Theres definitely still a chill in the air...clouds have a wintry look...wouldnt surprise me at all to see some frozen stuff to start. Side note...radar down south is angry looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS looks decent for moderate wintry precip prior to changeover... I think McLean sees 1-3" then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z NAM crushes Cumberland. Close to 5" of snow, then a half-inch of FZRA with temps rising through the mid-upper 20's. http://www.meteor.ia...l=namm&site=cbe Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. To my knowledge, it doesn't have OKV. To get Martinsburg, use KMRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z NAM snow output. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For us close to metro folks it's bleak at best but not a frozen shutout. You can already see with hourly temps the hagerstown and winchester are running 5-10 degrees below folks closer to the beltways. It's all going to come down to temps at onset. Stating the obvious of course but if you are 30 or below in the early morning hours you can pull off some frozen. Maybe some flakes...or pellets....or even a period of zr but we all know it's going to be a car washer for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is that available for other sites? I couldn't get it to work for Winchester or martinsburg. You could use Woodstock (WOO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For us close to metro folks it's bleak at best but not a frozen shutout. You can already see with hourly temps the hagerstown and winchester are running 5-10 degrees below folks closer to the beltways. It's all going to come down to temps at onset. Stating the obvious of course but if you are 30 or below in the early morning hours you can pull off some frozen. Maybe some flakes...or pellets....or even a period of zr but we all know it's going to be a car washer for the most part. With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. I'm sure I'm doomed except something "interesting" on the front end. Prob not gonna last long at all imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My backyard needs the rain. We were dry for awhile. I'll get plenty of rain, probably 2-3 inches' worth. I hope Leesburg gets a foot of snow and Davis West Virginia gets three feet of snow. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With these marginal temperature setups, I like the NAM forecast soundings at Twister. You can plot for your location. So I set the marker for N-central MD and for mid-afternoon tomorrow after the column is saturated and the warm nose at 850 is more than just a bit intrusive. The NAM still gives you a few inches before changing over. I had completely forgotten/given up on this storm but the combination of EURO + GFS is promising, and the NAM is only marginally worse (and still gives us some snow). DCA will only see a T (or an inch, at best), but I think IAD will record ~4". Also of note is that NYC will see almost nothing at all, so I'm not sad about missing this storm up there (although I do love living above 40N because the line does indeed seem to be magical). The gradient will be entirely East-West as opposed to N/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Have looked over the soundings for 18z. NAM is warmer, GFS is colder for the Shenandoah and Cumberland valleys. The warmer air seems to always come in aloft pretty fast, but the wind at the surface is NNE to almost due north so expect the cold air to remain trapped for a long time. May not get above freezing in many areas. Freezing rain is the big issue with this, but could get a good thump of snow at the onset. That's my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just enough cirrus to create a halo around the moon. Otherwise, clear and radiating well here. At least 75% snow cover remains from yesterday. 32 degrees at 7:15. Winds N at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 With surface low pressure over Alabama right now in turn having the storm more south and east than modeled will this allow HP to funnel in more cooler air down to Southern VA or if storm goes more south and east will it be harder to scour out low level air? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 With surface low pressure over Alabama right now in turn having the storm more south and east than modeled will this allow HP to funnel in more cooler air down to Southern VA or if storm goes more south and east will it be harder to scour out low level air? Just curious Yes, you would continue have a N to NNE wind keeping in the cold air locked in at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. we have been watching this so long I will be happy to see it come and go...the thing I am most interested in seeing is how far north it gets before moving east....even a 50 mile difference may mean holding the cold longer...I remember a few days ago when it was thought this would plow deep into Ohio as a 992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm thinking IAD NW will start as snow and mix/change over to rain by around noon. Maybe the same amounts of the storm yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Common sense tells me mostly rain here....yesterday's storm kinda made my common sense waver....euro and gfs say we start frozen here...even nam says a little...don't think I'm buying it...my call is a bit of freezing rain turning to rain by 9am...very pessimistic on this one since yesterday over performed. I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If that NAM/GFS clown maps ever seemed legit. (Not really, but we all look at them) NAM gives me 4 inches-- at best, my profile supports some sleet for 3-4 hours. What in the world are they using. (Allen Huffman's sight-- Twister gives me an inch or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 the rainfall totals are going to be in record breaking territory (for the day, that is) so it (snow) will all be gone by 12Z Thursday for anyone in our area <2K' asl 12/26 record precip for the day is 1.31" and 12/27 is 1.21" the only thing that may prevent breaking one of those records is that half, more or less, will fall before/after midnight on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS The RAP agrees, the NAM says "Yeah, right, straight to sleet for you!, the HRRR agrees with the RAP. Interesting short-term model battle unfolding. My bet is slightly towards the HRRR/RAP idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The nam is really way off from all other guidance now. Not saying its wrong. Perhaps with its higher res it can see something the others are missing but it blasts the warm layer way north of all other models early tomorrow. It doesn't matter as much here but in east central pa for instance it's the difference between 6-12" and almost nothing. Amazing. I remember one similar scenario with the v-day storm in 2007 and the nam was right with the warm layer getting way further north in pa then other guidance. We will see this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Up 3 degrees in the past hour. Had bottomed at 30, but clouds came in and the breeze continues to increase. 33 with a North wind at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I sense 2" of snow and sleet then a flip to ZR till around noon or so then to plain ole rain. Snowpack in the yard is still holding on nicely. Down to 34* now on my PWS Big difference a few miles east of leesburg where nothing is left as of this morning. Only got a 1/2 inch here. Might be as close a difference tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 indianapolis now in a blizzard warning. this storm is going to blanket some folks up north that stay snow. lots of moisture to work with. pretty impressive looking storm on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Before bed thoughts on tomorrow: Timing on the precip is everything tomorrow morning because by 1 pm we're all rain except for the Shenandoah Valley /I-81 corridor. I think even SE-DC/PG and Annapolis (and N) could start as a bit of sleet or snow before going to all rain by 10AM. Areas NW of I95 should start as snow before going to sleet and then rain. Areas S and E of IAD or MD200 should be all rain by 11:30AM. Leesburg/Fredrick/Westminster by 12:30 and everyone else outside of the Shenandoah by 1. I'm thinking .15 to .3" of QPF across the entire area by 1 PM. Windy and Rainy the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1121 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/1200 UTC STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ====================================== PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man euro is really cold for this storm .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man euro is really cold for this storm .. Yea it shows several inches out this way. Down to 34/29 right now, gonna be up early tomorrow and check out what it looks like then. 2-4" would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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