usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM says next The deeper 850 in Ky mean warmer 850s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM says next This thing will be at best a possible surprise type deal for someone in the Leesburg area. I think next weekend is the better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The deeper 850 in Ky mean warmer 850s here. the sfc low passes right over your house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 it is a crapload of liquid too...1"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM says next Nam said no snow 2 days ago for Christmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam said no snow 2 days ago for Christmas eve It is warmer than the other models...Lessburg is borderline sleet when the precip commences there around 45-46 hours.....here is leesburg at 48 hrs...you can see the massive warm nose...according to the NAM as Wes said...you go to sleet quickly...but maybe it will accumulate a bit?...Euro/GFS are colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 the sfc low passes right over your house get's my house to 50 and DC and my house to 49, We're locked in storm, Ji and Leesburg still might get some winter weather at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 get's my house to 50 and DC and my house to 49, We're locked in storm, Ji and Leesburg still might get some winter weather at the onset. The NAM is the least optimistic for those guys...even MRB goes to sleet by say hour 49.....The other models are colder...maybe MRB can get 1-2" and then sleet and then rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is almost the same as 12z back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wes uses the warmest model of course:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wes uses the warmest model of course:) we'll have time to dissect the models tomorrow...I figure by 18z runs, all our families will have annoyed us enough to go hide and watch model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is the least optimistic for those guys...even MRB goes to sleet by say hour 49.....The other models are colder...maybe MRB can get 1-2" and then sleet and then rain... Possible as we get into the shorter time ranges, the NAM's soundings start winning if they have the same track and intensity. I'm rooting for Ji, Leesburg and Co. to get a little love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter storm watch for Frederick: MDZ004-250500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.121226T0600Z-121227T1100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-121225T0100Z/ FREDERICK MD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICK 350 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && We do generally do quite well in CAD events up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam said no snow 2 days ago for Christmas eve Weenie logic.. Storms aren't remotely the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter storm watch now in the Valley too, nice snow today in Staunton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ok I have been checking but need some advice. We are supposed to be heading down to GA on Wednesday and we usually take 81 to 77. Currently does this winter weather watch include I-81? If so we may have to delay one day or take 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS basically looks like the NAM...not going to waste time with the details until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ok I have been checking but need some advice. We are supposed to be heading down to GA on Wednesday and we usually take 81 to 77. Currently does this winter weather watch include I-81? If so we may have to delay one day or take 95. The 81-corridor in VA to Rockbridge County is under a Watch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Dave is still aggressive with his 1st call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Dave is still aggressive with his 1st call yes...too aggressive for us I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Possible as we get into the shorter time ranges, the NAM's soundings start winning if they have the same track and intensity. I'm rooting for Ji, Leesburg and Co. to get a little love. Well I'm not. Equality should be emphasized when it comes to winter storms in the greater D.C. are. Equality. Sorry, I'm still bitter about that wretched 2003-04 season. I drove all the way from Upper Marlboro to Gaithersburg in one of those filthy "North & West of town" events just to see the breadth of the shaft; to understand the scale of the outrage. All these years later I still don't think I'm over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 81-corridor in VA to Rockbridge County is under a Watch right now Thank you! Looking at the 95 drive looks like we stay with rain so will go that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Snowed all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The Chill storm looks anything but chill on the 00Z NAM. Really wound up low with tremendous waa and veering with height on the sounding. Gonna rain, gonna rain hard. Look at the 50 knot winds and how they change direction as you ascend on the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The Chill storm looks anything but chill on the 00Z NAM. Really wound up low with tremendous waa and veering with height on the sounding. Gonna rain, gonna rain hard. Look at the 50 knot winds and how they change direction as you ascend on the sounding. <snip> Shame it's December with a slight CAD set-up. If we had a 6-7°C/km lapse rate from 925mb then it would be a storm. I'll take gusts to 30kts though. A Coastal Flood Advisory is going to be needed for the Western shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The real question is, what should we be looking for during this storm that could impact the weekend potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Prep the ark.. Good point. We're approaching flash flood criteria in some areas if we got a 12hr 2" rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00Z GFS still showing significant frozen precip for OKV-MRB-HGR at least through the morning of 12/26. Doesn't get above 32 here until 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 00Z GFS still showing significant frozen precip for OKV-MRB-HGR at least through the morning of 12/26. Doesn't get above 32 here until 21Z. The GFS has been pretty consistent all day with its effects out here. Seems like a pretty decent event. We will see. Interested to hear what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is interesting down here-- really drives in the sleet/zr for a good bit of the event. Maybe when that SUPER heavy batch comes through we flip, but the first .5 qpf or so is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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