showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Colder. For my area anyway. Though the GFS has steadily trended colder in my area suggesting a fairly substantial slopfest the NAM and the SREF's are the ones I put more weight into considering the time frame we are at with the storm. At this point both suggest little to no frozen outside of the mountains and should really raise a red flag for anyone in the area hoping for more then a token snow flake or sleet pellet. Here's hoping we start seeing them coming in with substantially colder runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice to see LWX throwing up a winter storm watch for Loudoun and pts S and W and N. Im still thinking we start out with some snow and ice mix for a few hours then a flip to a cold rain. But it is nice to wake up to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ice Storm Warning here......yuck Time to pull out the generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rgem looks interesting....12z gfs shows about 2-3" of frozen before raining. Nam still warm but a tad colder and less wet...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not. The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain. Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather. Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not. The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain. Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather. Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight. fringed by the cold air....would be poetic justice for me to get rain while just to my West is pummeled after yesterday's snow.....always on the line here...sometimes it works sometimes no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is a nasty storm for out here. Another 2-4 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice. 2M temps stay below freezing for entire event. Looks like around 8-10 hours of snow/sleet followed by 6-8 hours of freezing rain. Gonna be awful road conditions tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. Ellinwoods thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. that looks like an Ellinwood map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 that looks like an Ellinwood map It is. I clarified my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 From the Philly forum. Ellinwoods thoughts. That's bullish. Good luck with the forecast, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The euro is a major storm for the same areas that got snow yesterday That CAD signature on the EC is beautiful for the northern Shenandoah Valley. 30.45"+ pressure over Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro destroys me with .60 frozen temps 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the other thing about the euro is the colossal amount of precip...just huge how much frozen precip do you think for those us in or around the 2 beltways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm supposed to drive to my mothers in the morning....does the euro suggest I may be late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 depending on exact location probably very brief snow then a mix of sleet/rain for a few hours...maybe some flakes mixed in....then all rain thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 depending on exact location probably very brief snow then a mix of sleet/rain for a few hours...maybe some flakes mixed in....then all rain Sorry for the the IMBY post, but what about FDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Sorry for the the IMBY post, but what about FDK? Matt mentioned if you got snow yesterday you look to start out frozen with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right I have seen those floating a round...how do you get them? I have never seen the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I have seen those floating a round...how do you get them? I have never seen the link? http://www.wunderground.com/ Highlight "Maps and Radar" Select Wundermap Scroll through Layers to find Model Data- check that Select model and parameter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here is the EURO at 18Z tomorrow, snowfall, per wunderground. Even Wes gets in on the flaking, strange looking 2" to 3" protuberance in Wes' backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast they had us in snow a couple of times already this year even with Sandy. I'm also not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LWX dropped from WSW to a WWA until you get west of CBE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast A lot of mets show them online and stuff. Not completely sure why tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 LWX dropped from WSW to a WWA until you get west of CBE. Not sure I understand that, but I didn't understand their forecast of rain for me yesterday morning when the forecast the night before was for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 The NAM is cold here, and now more in line with the GFS on timing of precip. Shows us barely reaching freezing through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not sure I understand that, but I didn't understand their forecast of rain for me yesterday morning when the forecast the night before was for snow. Its marginal cold trying to hold against a heck of a warm push. 18Z NAM brings in the precip faster than 12Z did, and if that's accurate we might see a quick 2-3" of snow early. Imagine we sleet pretty hard after that, and when the rain comes we should be close enough to 32 that heavy rates won't accrete well. Higher elevations might warrant a warning, but it gets confusing if you WSW a whole county for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wunderground Euro map gives me 3" before the change that would be nice if it's right Would be nice if we got some accumulation around here but I am not counting on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18Z NAM crushes Cumberland. Close to 5" of snow, then a half-inch of FZRA with temps rising through the mid-upper 20's. http://www.meteor.ia...l=namm&site=cbe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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