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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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The NAM is the least optimistic for those guys...even MRB goes to sleet by say hour 49.....The other models are colder...maybe MRB can get 1-2" and then sleet and then rain...

Possible as we get into the shorter time ranges, the NAM's soundings start winning if they have the same track and intensity. I'm rooting for Ji, Leesburg and Co. to get a little love.

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Winter storm watch for Frederick:

MDZ004-250500-

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.121226T0600Z-121227T1100Z/

/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-121225T0100Z/

FREDERICK MD-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICK

350 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WITH THE NEXT STORM

SYSTEM...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER

20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS

10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY

IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON

TRAVEL WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND SLEET

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS

AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

We do generally do quite well in CAD events up here...

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Ok I have been checking but need some advice. We are supposed to be heading down to GA on Wednesday and we usually take 81 to 77. Currently does this winter weather watch include I-81? If so we may have to delay one day or take 95.

The 81-corridor in VA to Rockbridge County is under a Watch right now.

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Possible as we get into the shorter time ranges, the NAM's soundings start winning if they have the same track and intensity. I'm rooting for Ji, Leesburg and Co. to get a little love.

Well I'm not. Equality should be emphasized when it comes to winter storms in the greater D.C. are. Equality.

Sorry, I'm still bitter about that wretched 2003-04 season. I drove all the way from Upper Marlboro to Gaithersburg in one of those filthy "North & West of town" events just to see the breadth of the shaft; to understand the scale of the outrage. All these years later I still don't think I'm over it.

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The Chill storm looks anything but chill on the 00Z NAM. Really wound up low with tremendous waa and veering with height on the sounding. Gonna rain, gonna rain hard. Look at the 50 knot winds and how they change direction as you ascend on the sounding.

<snip>

Shame it's December with a slight CAD set-up. If we had a 6-7°C/km lapse rate from 925mb then it would be a storm. I'll take gusts to 30kts though. A Coastal Flood Advisory is going to be needed for the Western shore.

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00Z GFS still showing significant frozen precip for OKV-MRB-HGR at least through the morning of 12/26.

Doesn't get above 32 here until 21Z.

The GFS has been pretty consistent all day with its effects out here. Seems like a pretty decent event. We will see. Interested to hear what the Euro shows.

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Well I'm not. Equality should be emphasized when it comes to winter storms in the greater D.C. are. Equality.

Yeah but you all get all the fun summer severe weather when we get shafted. :)

I'll be about 30 miles NW of Pittsburgh at 1200' this storm instead of Frederick so I think I'll get to see some good snows for a change!

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6z GFS and EURO certainly are interesting for the beginning of this storm out here....NAM is blech...we shall see..

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLLIDAYS everyone

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and everyone else as well.

Haven't really followed the NAM that closely but will be now with it being within 48 hours. You wouldn't know off hand if it's temp profiles have stayed consistent or if they have trended warmer or colder?

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6z GFS and EURO certainly are interesting for the beginning of this storm out here....NAM is blech...we shall see..

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HOLLIDAYS everyone

Every time I look at a model, this low seems just a bit further east and the transfer a bit further south. The NAM has this in NE AL tomorrow morning. I can't tell where the Euro is exactly because of the 24 hr jumps, but it looks coolish.

I know location is a big deal with this one, but this may have been written off too quickly.

Merry Christmas everyone.

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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and everyone else as well.

Haven't really followed the NAM that closely but will be now with it being within 48 hours. You wouldn't know off hand if it's temp profiles have stayed consistent or if they have trended warmer or colder?

Colder. For my area anyway.

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