stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I have visions of the MLK storm and you with the bus at least for us. I've pretty much written this one off and think the next one is in trouble . Yeah, it's over....but 18z has some magic at 144 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, it's over....but 18z has some magic at 144 hours! My guess based on the 500h is that it trends north and warmer especially if the blocking weakens a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think it depends upon where you are as to whether this is over. That and the fact that we are talking about 2-3 days into the future. The GFS ens is noticeably colder for Wed in my area. A few of its members keep that 850 line oh so close all day long. Both the GFS and the NAM have the Shen valley in the twenties Wed morning, and the NAM keeps us right at freezing for most of the day. Both models suggest 2-3 inches of snow. Regardless of type, it looks to be frozen for a good period. As for the end of the week, only one GFS member has the low west of the apps like the Euro. It's a suckers bet to go against Wes, but I'm all in and I ain't giving up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Isn't it about time to drop the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Isn't it about time to drop the ensembles? I don't know. Is it? Are they not useful within 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think it depends upon where you are as to whether this is over. That and the fact that we are talking about 2-3 days into the future. The GFS ens is noticeably colder for Wed in my area. A few of its members keep that 850 line oh so close all day long. Both the GFS and the NAM have the Shen valley in the twenties Wed morning, and the NAM keeps us right at freezing for most of the day. Both models suggest 2-3 inches of snow. Regardless of type, it looks to be frozen for a good period. As for the end of the week, only one GFS member has the low west of the apps like the Euro. It's a suckers bet to go against Wes, but I'm all in and I ain't giving up yet. lol, You never give up. Early on with the last event the GEFS had the same general look as they do now for the 29-30 event. Of course, they could be right and the Euro and its ens mean could be wrong but I think the GFS actually stepped a little towards the Euro at 18Z. I also don't like the look of the 500H configuration, there are a lot of ways for lakes trough to screw things up. But who cares, the skins won, Dallas and the Giants lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I don't know. Is it? Are they not useful within 3 days? I'd use the sref not the GEFS, the latter's resolution becomes a problem this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 lol, You never give up. ... It seems that there are three events, the first event on Monday seems to have a brief hint of frozen mixed precipitation at the onset and then an overall look of rain. The second event, on the 26th, seems to have a brief hint of frozen mixed precipitation at the onset and then an overall look of rain. The third event, on the 30th, seems cooler than the first two events and could give some light accumulating mixed frozen precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic. Wes, How did I do? I doesn't seem as if the first two events have much probability of being surprise positive busted forecasts with all of the WAA courtesy of surface low pressure to the west on both the NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 sref is toasty for the chill storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It seems that there are three events, the first event on Monday seems to have a brief hint of frozen mixed precipitation at the onset and then an overall look of rain. The second event, on the 26th, seems to have a brief hint of frozen mixed precipitation at the onset and then an overall look of rain. The third event, on the 30th, seems cooler than the first two events and could give some light accumulating mixed frozen precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic. Wes, How did I do? I doesn't seem as if the first two events have much probability of being surprise positive busted forecasts with all of the WAA courtesy of surface low pressure to the west on both the NAM and the GFS. The first now is looking like snow through most of the event based on the 00Z nam at least for areas west o fthe city and very possibly for the city so the westerners have a decent shot at their first inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0Z NAM is definitely showing some better CAD than last few runs not that it will make too much of a diff, but it's there nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 interesting how the NAM has the 5H low kick due east from hrs. 63-72 on tonight's run which explains an earlier transfer than it was showing in prior runs probably won't mean anything to us, but may result in the naked running wild in the hills of CT http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L EDIT: The NAM was only out to 72 hrs when I first made this post; that link shows the entire run now and it's a bit surprising to me to see the 5H low pass through VA now instead of to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 interesting how the NAM has the 5H low kick due east from hrs. 63-72 on tonight's run which explains an earlier transfer than it was showing in prior runs probably won't mean anything to us, but may result in the naked running wild in the hills of CT http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L But it's also the nam towards the end of the run and for us would be meaningless. Heck it even has JamieO with ptype problems. Once the low gets to Ky we're toast unless the 850 low can squeeze about 90 nm to our south. That doesn't seem likely with the lack of any real nice 50 50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 But it's also the nam towards the end of the run and for us would be meaningless. Heck it even has JamieO with ptype problems. Once the low gets to Ky we're toast unless the 850 low can squeeze about 90 nm to our south. That doesn't seem likely with the lack of any real nice 50 50 low. well, like I said, I doubt it would mean anything to us, but it is a substantial change from prior runs still 60+ hrs away and none of the models have been deadly that far out in a long time if nothing else, it's interesting to see play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Unless something is being dramatically mishandled at 500, the goalposts are there and Forbath is kicking. This is coming from an optimist too. And I have the most to gain If I'm wrong. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Unless something is being dramatically mishandled at 500, the goalposts are there and Forbath is kicking. This is coming from an optimist too. And I have the most to gain If I'm wrong. LOL I don't think it will make a diff in the end for us, but if anything it's entertaining to see the models go all over the place sometimes the cynic in me says they're programmed to be all over the place so all the mets can claim victory at some point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 the beginning of the event will be a tricky forecast for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 an unfortunate pattern seems to have set up under the current pattern as the upper low traverse their way east, then northeast, the redevelopment of the slp seems to be occurring with vigor in the State of Virginia which isn't good for anyone I81 on east the storm last week did the same thing and both the NAM and the GFS are now showing it for this storm hopefully, this changes soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z Gfs front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z is the new 18z. 5h is more convoluted in Canada. Forces a more easterly track with pretty nice cad sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SREFS look very warm. Have the 32 surface temp just south of the Mason Dixon at the very onset and very quickly shoots that northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Aggressive? It is his first guess though...anyway fun to look at..map guesses have always been one of my favorite things about winter even the ones that are not close. I like looking at them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Admirable for him to go down with the ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Admirable for him to go down with the ship Who's map. looks way overdone to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Who's map. looks way overdone to me. DT. His call for rain in GA looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DT. His call for rain in GA looks good. I guess he still thinks my article from Monday wrong, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I just like looking at peoples guesses...I don't really care if they are right or wrong....nobody is going to die if they are or not, I know this is a non event...I'm sure he will scale it back it anyway as we get closer. I just posted it because it's a guess out there...Ian I assume your guess is all rain...Wes...the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I just like looking at peoples guesses...I don't really care if they are right or wrong....nobody is going to die if they are or not, I know this is a non event...I'm sure he will scale it back it anyway as we get closer. I just posted it because it's a guess out there...Ian I assume your guess is all rain...Wes...the same? You might see ice or snow at onset but it should change to rain pretty quickly. I sure don't see any ice storm in mby with the models raising the surface temp to 50 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I just like looking at peoples guesses...I don't really care if they are right or wrong....nobody is going to die if they are or not, I know this is a non event...I'm sure he will scale it back it anyway as we get closer. I just posted it because it's a guess out there...Ian I assume your guess is all rain...Wes...the same? I've only paid marginal attention to details outside DC. Still seemed like at least a quick front end frozen chance for many but haven't looked today as I'm on a train to BWI to catch a plane. My slight concern of missing something good disappeared tho. I wish you an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I've only paid marginal attention to details outside DC. Still seemed like at least a quick front end frozen chance for many but haven't looked today as I'm on a train to BWI to catch a plane. My slight concern of missing something good disappeared tho. I wish you an inch of ice. Lol...have a safe trip and Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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