PhineasC Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12Z GFS is actually a little east from last night and slightly less hideous. Still all rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12Z GFS is actually a little east from last night and slightly less hideous. Still all rain for the coast. A . I don't know pretty hideous. Tracks to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 just another day that we have to look beyond the next 5 for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As long as the goal posts at 500 stay where they are, the track isn't going to get better. I'm ready for 30 mins of freezing rain. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 . I don't know pretty hideous. Tracks to Detroit. Huh? What model are you looking at? It tracks to ne Ky, then jumps to Va. This run is slightly colder at the surface initially as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 As long as the goal posts at 500 stay where they are, the track isn't going to get better. I'm ready for 30 mins of freezing rain. Yay! That's the trick though. Will the goal post stay the way they are modeled for 3 days? If that 500 low would wait about 12 hours before going neg, I think we'd be looking at a diff scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Huh? What model are you looking at? It tracks to ne Ky, then jumps to Va. This run is slightly colder at the surface initially as well. If it's now showing a jumper then that is a shift "back"...my guess is this may still show some improvement...your area should definitely stay alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Huh? What model are you looking at? It tracks to ne Ky, then jumps to Va. This run is slightly colder at the surface initially as well. Is that the primary that goes due east from KY or a secondary? Hard to tell but it seems to hit a brick wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro snow maps from last night are....shall we say....interesting? I know Ian says they are usually overblown and yes they have been but goodness they show all kinds of love West of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Is that the primary that goes due east from KY or a secondary? Hard to tell but it seems to hit a brick wall I don't really know the proper designation. I don't think it moves across the apps, just reforms. Somebody will chime in with the proper explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 If it's now showing a jumper then that is a shift "back"...my guess is this may still show some improvement...your area should definitely stay alert I'm not giving in yet. There's simply been to much chaos with the modeling on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Justin Berk illustrates the low shift on the GFS...still rain and still a long way from being anything nice so please don't misunderstand what I'm saying...I said last week I was gonna ride this thing till the end regardless of the outcome and right now it "appears" there might be a shift once again. Fun stuff...just waiting for football right now anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12 ens members are noticeably different by Wed evening than the 6z members were. Almost all have a more southern transfer. As modeled it doesn't change what happens all that much, but does open the door to a possible shift taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12 ens members are noticeably different by Wed evening than the 6z members were. Almost all have a more southern transfer. As modeled it doesn't change what happens all that much, but does open the door to a possible shift taking place. It could keep trending better but I think the overriding rule is that transfers are troublesome. The models might shift back and then back again. Obviously if you're west and north and in elevation you have a bit more reason to watch this all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As long as the goal posts at 500 stay where they are, the track isn't going to get better. I'm ready for 30 mins of freezing rain. Yay! and that may be optimistic for many of us. The GFS looks pretty awful to me. I discuss the Dec 29-30 in an article coming out once the Euro come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i killed your euro snow graphic lees .. i know i've seen more of them lately tho im not sure it's ok to post them publicly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i killed your euro snow graphic lees .. i know i've seen more of them lately tho im not sure it's ok to post them publicly. No problem Ian...oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No problem Ian...oops it looks kinda like it did before the bump west.. i think it's overdone. it's counting ice potential etc as snow or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It could keep trending better but I think the overriding rule is that transfers are troublesome. The models might shift back and then back again. Obviously if you're west and north and in elevation you have a bit more reason to watch this all. Sometimes I think I live in a different world when I come in here. My inclination after looking at the GFS isit's pretty much the same solution as the previous run and just an expected minor wiggle. Heck it takes the primary to central Ky on the psu maps and rapidly warms everyone up with temps in the city getting close to 50. The I look at the ens and see this. A few suggest a longer freezign rain or sleet period but gosh, they still look bad to me. I guess out towards Winterluvr the differences might mean something, for the bulk of us it means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I agree Wes. I only looked at the op tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 euro is same as 0z...warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 start as snow/sleet for western burbs...a coupls hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Day 4 on the Euro has 850 temps for us the same as in Alaska that has to be an improvement http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ii Still trying to figure out what this is... Would like to hear Wes' thoughts on what if any the differences are in the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sometimes I think I live in a different world when I come in here. My inclination after looking at the GFS isit's pretty much the same solution as the previous run and just an expected minor wiggle. Heck it takes the primary to central Ky on the psu maps and rapidly warms everyone up with temps in the city getting close to 50. The I look at the ens and see this. A few suggest a longer freezign rain or sleet period but gosh, they still look bad to me. I guess out towards Winterluvr the differences might mean something, for the bulk of us it means little. It was the next set of those that I was referring to Wes. The transfer is shown to take place a couple hundred miles further south. I didn't feel the end result was better, just that it might point to changes that we might see in later runs. Of course the 18 z might roll in even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So euro still shows a nice storm I-81 or so...some decent slop here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It could keep trending better but I think the overriding rule is that transfers are troublesome. The models might shift back and then back again. Obviously if you're west and north and in elevation you have a bit more reason to watch this all. You're probably right, but now is not the time to give up on this, especially in FDk, HGR, MRB. I'm not even counting us out, obviously we're not gonna be frozen wire to wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You're probably right, but now is not the time to give up on this, especially in FDk, HGR, MRB. I'm not even counting us out, obviously we're not gonna be frozen wire to wire. I gave up a while ago. Tho it is 18z magic time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I gave up a while ago. Tho it is 18z magic time. Looks like a carbon copy of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You're probably right, but now is not the time to give up on this, especially in FDk, HGR, MRB. I'm not even counting us out, obviously we're not gonna be frozen wire to wire. I have visions of the MLK storm and you with the bus at least for us. I've pretty much written this one off and think the next one is in trouble . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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