usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 00Z nam keeps the warm look for both storm with the boxing day storm heading for KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Freezing fog Wed am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I like the pattern for something between dec 29 and jan 5th but before that looks like a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I like the pattern for something between dec 29 and jan 5th but before that looks like a lost cause. Oh good! Another psuhoffman storm That's always a good sign. On a less banterish note - I guess I agree but it is tough to be encouraged with some poor trends on the current storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh good! Another psuhoffman storm That's always a good sign. On a less banterish note - I guess I agree but it is tough to be encouraged with some poor trends on the current storms. If the Pna finally goes positive then trends happening now are irrelevant as some of the driving force to the pattern will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 00Z nam keeps the warm look for both storm with the boxing day storm heading for KY. The 00Z GFS teases us with some possible sleet and snow showers before sunrise on Wednesday but then a ridiculous turn over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 what is so incredible is how both the GFS and Euro at 7-10 days had the southern Canada block, and it was impressive on both models as of tonight's 0Z GFS, it literally disintegrates before your eyes when you loop the 500mb maps and the upper level low heads for the "magnet of all NINAs," the Great Lakes pretty pathetic showing by the models; I mean at 7-10 days they are just supposed to see the long wave patterns and both of those models (if not all the rest of the MR models) shiat the bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 what is so incredible is how both the GFS and Euro at 7-10 days had the southern Canada block, and it was impressive on both models as of tonight's 0Z GFS, it literally disintegrates before your eyes when you loop the 500mb maps and the upper level low heads for the "magnet of all NINAs," the Great Lakes pretty pathetic showing by the models; I mean at 7-10 days they are just supposed to see the long wave patterns and both of those models (if not all the rest of the MR models) shiat the bed the models have no real skill with storm specifics at that range over time. i know people know that but im not sure how much they know that. as with recent years, the 500 pattern has been super chaotic of late. add that in to the no skill thing and you have a problem if you're looking for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the models have no real skill with storm specifics at that range over time. i know people know that but im not sure how much they know that. as with recent years, the 500 pattern has been super chaotic of late. add that in to the no skill thing and you have a problem if you're looking for details. well, it's not like the block in Canada was a little feature it was large and pretty impressive, so I don't agree with the characterization of it as a "storm specific" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 what a dissapointment. 6z had all snow for me. 00z me has all rain and high of 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 hopefully the weatherbell forecast works out https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/282498935728254976/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 well, it's not like the block in Canada was a little feature it was large and pretty impressive, so I don't agree with the characterization of it as a "storm specific" ok, maybe i qualified it too much.. the models have no skill whatsoever in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 hopefully the weatherbell forecast works out https://twitter.com/...8254976/photo/1 it'll be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wow. Talk about going down the tubes for snow over PA. Man, I was dead wrong with what I thought this storm would end up doing. Wes, I'll give you props on seeing that this pattern for this storm would not be great. Just have to wait for that PNA to get positve. So, we have AO really negative, NAO negative, but this time we are seeing the Pacifc really dominating things. We certainly have all that arctic air over Canada, some places down to -50, but just can't bring some of that over here in the East. We really needed a strong high to be parked like you said over the Great Lakes and over New England for this storm coming up. For now, let's get that PNA to get positive and then see what happens. Although, I've heard that the key blocking may not hold. Ah, let's what happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 You know,when you look at the 6z and 0z 500 maps, they are almost the same. The exception is when you look at the storms. The latest modeling has the storm in almost exactly the same spot, but much stronger. It hangs on longer, where the 6z storm jumped. It's getting close in, but this storm seems so sensitive that just maybe if that piece of energy that's going to create our storm ends up a tad weaker, maybe we end up back at earlier solutions. Grasping yes, but this storm has already proven tough to pin down, so whos to say. Still 3+ days in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You know,when you look at the 6z and 0z 500 maps, they are almost the same. The exception is when you look at the storms. The latest modeling has the storm in almost exactly the same spot, but much stronger. It hangs on longer, where the 6z storm jumped. It's getting close in, but this storm seems so sensitive that just maybe if that piece of energy that's going to create our storm ends up a tad weaker, maybe we end up back at earlier solutions. Grasping yes, but this storm has already proven tough to pin down, so whos to say. Still 3+ days in the future. it's so bad that HPC didn't even release an afternoon discussion...it is even pointless to track something in the long range because it won't be there in the short range...a snowless December...again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro nice frozen for me again at begining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 1st positive run of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 One more euro shift east and were back to where we were 23 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hgr stays all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does look futher east and colder but I might be seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Besides the obvious shift we saw with the 12Z GFS yesterday that dashed many's hopes the tendencies of the GFS runs since then have not been favorable for those hoping for something a little more substantial then just a potential very brief round of frozen at the onset. Since the 12Z the tendencies have been to strengthen the low and slightly move it even further west. Also, whereas we initially had indications of a new low forming to the south and east and the beginnings of a transference from the primary that would have helped to slow the southerly flow down somewhat from eroding the CAD, the GFS seems to be going away from that idea. Barring a major shift in the GFS, one has to wonder if we are now at the stage where we should be rooting for this storm to go even further west just to prolong any initial round of frozen because the shift needed east to help the winter weather lovers is becoming fairly large and probably close to insurmountable. Edit: Just to clarify this is all in reference to what the GFS is showing and not the other models and what they may be showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A quick glance over the Euro it seems to me that the setup is slightly better then the 12Z run with a secondary developing and a transfer. But looking at the 500's I am curious if that is how it would play out. Looking at the upper level low and corresponding trough and it's placement with the surface low wouldn't that suggest that we see a strengthening of the primary and no secondary development? Don't know all the dynamics involved and was wondering if a met or other knowledgeable person could chime in. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 The GFS is still a decent winter event for the Shen valley if its temps and snow maps are to be believed. It appears the Euro is east of its previous position as well. Not going to quit on this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A quick glance over the Euro it seems to me that the setup is slightly better then the 12Z run with a secondary developing and a transfer. But looking at the 500's I am curious if that is how it would play out. Looking at the upper level low and corresponding trough and it's placement with the surface low wouldn't that suggest that we see a strengthening of the primary and no secondary development? Don't know all the dynamics involved and was wondering if a met or other knowledgeable person could chime in. Thanks. I somewhat agree, I think where the Euro stands now with its positioning of the primary low, it can go either way. Any slight shift east on the primary, and it will no doubt spawn a low off the coast. Will this make a difference? Maybe not, because we can essencially have two lows with almost equal strength for a longer period of time than we would like. If this happens we will have a large area of mix bag of precip. On the other notion, if the primary low slides a bit to the NW, game over for any chance, warmth and rain. I think this is why the most recent SHREF's ensembles are every where with their tempratures. It has has our audience in the 20-30s to 50-60s on Wed. A large varience and all dictates on really one variable. In reality, I think these models are doing well with this storm and something I think is neat to see. And this is....a lot of extreme outcomes can be determined by small adjustments. No one should throw the towl on this one yet. This one just might surprise some people. Someone had noted, in the this thread I believe, about the if the primary does not make it to 994 or there abouts than we expect a transfer, if it exceeds the 994 than it will be tough. I'm not sure if those # are accuratly quoted but there is a good rule and I believe their is alot of truth to it. I personally will stick these #s as I think it can be telling. Perhaps a met can provide some knowledge on this. I also think this is why HPC is siding with a surface low forming off the coast. Another key point. I noticed the Euro spawning low almost over land. This could be wrong and if is does form; I think it will be just off the coast. We will see... Nice gift from mother nature if you like to track storms. This is a forcaster's dream if they want a challenge. I'm an observer just learning, but lived in the area all my life and I don't miss a beat with details when a storm occurs. For the record I live near Ski Liberty, just north of the Mason Dixon Line, about 900 ft elev. I will see some freezing precip, but the type, and duration wont be determined until 24 hrs before the storm arrives. I believe this will be true for many. Thanks to all, and sorry for typos and grammer errors. I just want to get the thought expressed. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I somewhat agree, I think where the Euro stands now with its positioning of the primary low, it can go either way. Any slight shift east on the primary, and it will no doubt spawn a low off the coast. Will this make a difference? Maybe not, because we can essencially have two lows with almost equal strength for a longer period of time than we would like. If this happens we will have a large area of mix bag of precip. On the other notion, if the primary low slides a bit to the NW, game over for any chance, warmth and rain. I think this is why the most recent SHREF's ensembles are every where with their tempratures. It has has our audience in the 20-30s to 50-60s on Wed. A large varience and all dictates on really one variable. In reality, I think these models are doing well with this storm and something I think is neat to see. And this is....a lot of extreme outcomes can be determined by small adjustments. No one should throw the towl on this one yet. This one just might surprise some people. Someone had noted, in the this thread I believe, about the if the primary does not make it to 994 or there abouts than we expect a transfer, if it exceeds the 994 than it will be tough. I'm not sure if those # are accuratly quoted but there is a good rule and I believe their is alot of truth to it. I personally will stick these #s as I think it can be telling. Perhaps a met can provide some knowledge on this. I also think this is why HPC is siding with a surface low forming off the coast. Another key point. I noticed the Euro spawning low almost over land. This could be wrong and if is does form; I think it will be just off the coast. We will see... Nice gift from mother nature if you like to track storms. This is a forcaster's dream if they want a challenge. I'm an observer just learning, but lived in the area all my life and I don't miss a beat with details when a storm occurs. For the record I live near Ski Liberty, just north of the Mason Dixon Line, about 900 ft elev. I will see some freezing precip, but the type, and duration wont be determined until 24 hrs before the storm arrives. I believe this will be true for many. Thanks to all, and sorry for typos and grammer errors. I just want to get the thought expressed. Thanks! I'm sure the mods will move this to banter, but I just want to say how rare it is for a new poster to have such clear and insightful thoughts. So glad you're posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Do we ever trust the NAM? Looks colder tomorrow - just want to know if it is now completely garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Stormhunter, the fundamental problem with the track and lack of transfer shows little signs of changing. It has much more to do with the config @ 500 in se canada. If you look at those panels with the 6z gfs you can see no favorable closed contour near the maritimes but a clear one N of the lakes. The trough tilts negative almost 90 degrees as the low passes our latitude. It's like a lp vacuum easily keeping the track well west. There is just nothing in the way to stop it from happening this way. This is the main reason the recent runs show no transfer and solid west track. If you are tracking and hoping for an east shift and transfer then don't pay so much attention to 850 lp placement and strength leading up as much as the lack of a close 500 contour anywhere in the vicinity of the canadian maritimes. That's the evil thorn in our side. I posted this previously but it really shows where things went to heck: And here's 0z last night and 6z today: The last really good run was the oldest and occured the day before yesterday. If we don't get blocking back in se canada then the low will never transfer or track further east. It will easily just get pulled to the N and then NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM is warm and wet...even Cleveland is rain....Detroit looks like a good spot....well for snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Bob Chill, I see what you are saying in terms of the blocking and this is key for strenght and positioning of low. Big difference in terms of blocking in a small window of time per the models. It will be interesting to see this feature unfold on the 12z . Thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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