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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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A quick glance over the Euro it seems to me that the setup is slightly better then the 12Z run with a secondary developing and a transfer. But looking at the 500's I am curious if that is how it would play out. Looking at the upper level low and corresponding trough and it's placement with the surface low wouldn't that suggest that we see a strengthening of the primary and no secondary development? Don't know all the dynamics involved and was wondering if a met or other knowledgeable person could chime in. Thanks.

I somewhat agree, I think where the Euro stands now with its positioning of the primary low, it can go either way. Any slight shift east on the primary, and it will no doubt spawn a low off the coast. Will this make a difference? Maybe not, because we can essencially have two lows with almost equal strength for a longer period of time than we would like. If this happens we will have a large area of mix bag of precip. On the other notion, if the primary low slides a bit to the NW, game over for any chance, warmth and rain. I think this is why the most recent SHREF's ensembles are every where with their tempratures. It has has our audience in the 20-30s to 50-60s on Wed. A large varience and all dictates on really one variable. In reality, I think these models are doing well with this storm and something I think is neat to see. And this is....a lot of extreme outcomes can be determined by small adjustments. No one should throw the towl on this one yet. This one just might surprise some people. Someone had noted, in the this thread I believe, about the if the primary does not make it to 994 or there abouts than we expect a transfer, if it exceeds the 994 than it will be tough. I'm not sure if those # are accuratly quoted but there is a good rule and I believe their is alot of truth to it. I personally will stick these #s as I think it can be telling. Perhaps a met can provide some knowledge on this.

I also think this is why HPC is siding with a surface low forming off the coast. Another key point. I noticed the Euro spawning low almost over land. This could be wrong and if is does form; I think it will be just off the coast. We will see... Nice gift from mother nature if you like to track storms. This is a forcaster's dream if they want a challenge. I'm an observer just learning, but lived in the area all my life and I don't miss a beat with details when a storm occurs.

For the record I live near Ski Liberty, just north of the Mason Dixon Line, about 900 ft elev. I will see some freezing precip, but the type, and duration wont be determined until 24 hrs before the storm arrives. I believe this will be true for many.

Thanks to all, and sorry for typos and grammer errors. I just want to get the thought expressed. Thanks!

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I somewhat agree, I think where the Euro stands now with its positioning of the primary low, it can go either way. Any slight shift east on the primary, and it will no doubt spawn a low off the coast. Will this make a difference? Maybe not, because we can essencially have two lows with almost equal strength for a longer period of time than we would like. If this happens we will have a large area of mix bag of precip. On the other notion, if the primary low slides a bit to the NW, game over for any chance, warmth and rain. I think this is why the most recent SHREF's ensembles are every where with their tempratures. It has has our audience in the 20-30s to 50-60s on Wed. A large varience and all dictates on really one variable. In reality, I think these models are doing well with this storm and something I think is neat to see. And this is....a lot of extreme outcomes can be determined by small adjustments. No one should throw the towl on this one yet. This one just might surprise some people. Someone had noted, in the this thread I believe, about the if the primary does not make it to 994 or there abouts than we expect a transfer, if it exceeds the 994 than it will be tough. I'm not sure if those # are accuratly quoted but there is a good rule and I believe their is alot of truth to it. I personally will stick these #s as I think it can be telling. Perhaps a met can provide some knowledge on this.

I also think this is why HPC is siding with a surface low forming off the coast. Another key point. I noticed the Euro spawning low almost over land. This could be wrong and if is does form; I think it will be just off the coast. We will see... Nice gift from mother nature if you like to track storms. This is a forcaster's dream if they want a challenge. I'm an observer just learning, but lived in the area all my life and I don't miss a beat with details when a storm occurs.

For the record I live near Ski Liberty, just north of the Mason Dixon Line, about 900 ft elev. I will see some freezing precip, but the type, and duration wont be determined until 24 hrs before the storm arrives. I believe this will be true for many.

Thanks to all, and sorry for typos and grammer errors. I just want to get the thought expressed. Thanks!

I'm sure the mods will move this to banter, but I just want to say how rare it is for a new poster to have such clear and insightful thoughts. So glad you're posting.

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Stormhunter, the fundamental problem with the track and lack of transfer shows little signs of changing. It has much more to do with the config @ 500 in se canada. If you look at those panels with the 6z gfs you can see no favorable closed contour near the maritimes but a clear one N of the lakes. The trough tilts negative almost 90 degrees as the low passes our latitude. It's like a lp vacuum easily keeping the track well west. There is just nothing in the way to stop it from happening this way. This is the main reason the recent runs show no transfer and solid west track.

If you are tracking and hoping for an east shift and transfer then don't pay so much attention to 850 lp placement and strength leading up as much as the lack of a close 500 contour anywhere in the vicinity of the canadian maritimes. That's the evil thorn in our side.

I posted this previously but it really shows where things went to heck:

And here's 0z last night and 6z today:

The last really good run was the oldest and occured the day before yesterday. If we don't get blocking back in se canada then the low will never transfer or track further east. It will easily just get pulled to the N and then NW.

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Bob Chill,

I see what you are saying in terms of the blocking and this is key for strenght and positioning of low. Big difference in terms of blocking in a small window of time per the models. It will be interesting to see this feature unfold on the 12z . Thanks for the insight.

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As long as the goal posts at 500 stay where they are, the track isn't going to get better. I'm ready for 30 mins of freezing rain. Yay!

That's the trick though. Will the goal post stay the way they are modeled for 3 days?

If that 500 low would wait about 12 hours before going neg, I think we'd be looking at a diff scenario.

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Justin Berk illustrates the low shift on the GFS...still rain and still a long way from being anything nice so please don't misunderstand what I'm saying...I said last week I was gonna ride this thing till the end regardless of the outcome and right now it "appears" there might be a shift once again. Fun stuff...just waiting for football right now anyway

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The 12 ens members are noticeably different by Wed evening than the 6z members were. Almost all have a more southern transfer. As modeled it doesn't change what happens all that much, but does open the door to a possible shift taking place.

It could keep trending better but I think the overriding rule is that transfers are troublesome. The models might shift back and then back again. Obviously if you're west and north and in elevation you have a bit more reason to watch this all.

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It could keep trending better but I think the overriding rule is that transfers are troublesome. The models might shift back and then back again. Obviously if you're west and north and in elevation you have a bit more reason to watch this all.

Sometimes I think I live in a different world when I come in here. My inclination after looking at the GFS isit's pretty much the same solution as the previous run and just an expected minor wiggle. Heck it takes the primary to central Ky on the psu maps and rapidly warms everyone up with temps in the city getting close to 50. The I look at the ens and see this. A few suggest a longer freezign rain or sleet period but gosh, they still look bad to me.

post-70-0-07172800-1356285316_thumb.gif

I guess out towards Winterluvr the differences might mean something, for the bulk of us it means little.

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Sometimes I think I live in a different world when I come in here. My inclination after looking at the GFS isit's pretty much the same solution as the previous run and just an expected minor wiggle. Heck it takes the primary to central Ky on the psu maps and rapidly warms everyone up with temps in the city getting close to 50. The I look at the ens and see this. A few suggest a longer freezign rain or sleet period but gosh, they still look bad to me.

post-70-0-07172800-1356285316_thumb.gif

I guess out towards Winterluvr the differences might mean something, for the bulk of us it means little.

It was the next set of those that I was referring to Wes. The transfer is shown to take place a couple hundred miles further south. I didn't feel the end result was better, just that it might point to changes that we might see in later runs. Of course the 18 z might roll in even worse.

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