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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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Anybody remember a week or so ago when Wes told us over and over that the pattern favored a track to the north and West?

Well, don't give me too much credit Wed I was ready for you to replace me and start doing the CWG discussions as all the models had swung east. Welcome to dc weather. The only saving grace about the current model forecast is that one met who was crowing is now probably getting a little more subdued.

Now the pattern is looking better in that there should be lots more cold air around going forward but .....we have to keep the pattern from being a dry one. Let's hope there is enough of a southern stream to keep things interesting.

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I gave it back to the people last night. They gave it to Cuba. It's going to come full circle, just be patient.

lol, except for PSuHoffman the named storms have not done well. The Chill storm is about to rank up there with the Tracker bus storm in terms of weenie frustration infamy. Nowthat we are getting the PNA right it looks like we're losing the block for bit, not just the NAO block but the eastern canada one.

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Can't believe Wes pulled plug after one run. He is probably right but maybe wait one more day?

You mean the boxer day storm? Maybe it comes back east a little but we're running out of time. Also, the solution fit my old ideas about the storm and I'm not writing an official CWG piece so I can be a little more daring than if I was making an official forecast. Having the euro and GFS now in such close agreement along with their ens means suggests the wiggle room is narrowing rapidly.

I have no thoughts about the Dec 29 or Jan 1 or 2 events if they are still one the models. I'm content for now to watch this threat wither away.

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I like the pattern for something between dec 29 and jan 5th but before that looks like a lost cause.

Oh good! Another psuhoffman storm ;)

That's always a good sign. On a less banterish note - I guess I agree but it is tough to be encouraged with some poor trends on the current storms.

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Oh good! Another psuhoffman storm ;)

That's always a good sign. On a less banterish note - I guess I agree but it is tough to be encouraged with some poor trends on the current storms.

If the Pna finally goes positive then trends happening now are irrelevant as some of the driving force to the pattern will be different.

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what is so incredible is how both the GFS and Euro at 7-10 days had the southern Canada block, and it was impressive on both models

as of tonight's 0Z GFS, it literally disintegrates before your eyes when you loop the 500mb maps and the upper level low heads for the "magnet of all NINAs," the Great Lakes

pretty pathetic showing by the models; I mean at 7-10 days they are just supposed to see the long wave patterns and both of those models (if not all the rest of the MR models) shiat the bed

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what is so incredible is how both the GFS and Euro at 7-10 days had the southern Canada block, and it was impressive on both models

as of tonight's 0Z GFS, it literally disintegrates before your eyes when you loop the 500mb maps and the upper level low heads for the "magnet of all NINAs," the Great Lakes

pretty pathetic showing by the models; I mean at 7-10 days they are just supposed to see the long wave patterns and both of those models (if not all the rest of the MR models) shiat the bed

the models have no real skill with storm specifics at that range over time. i know people know that but im not sure how much they know that. as with recent years, the 500 pattern has been super chaotic of late. add that in to the no skill thing and you have a problem if you're looking for details.

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the models have no real skill with storm specifics at that range over time. i know people know that but im not sure how much they know that. as with recent years, the 500 pattern has been super chaotic of late. add that in to the no skill thing and you have a problem if you're looking for details.

well, it's not like the block in Canada was a little feature

it was large and pretty impressive, so I don't agree with the characterization of it as a "storm specific"

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well, it's not like the block in Canada was a little feature

it was large and pretty impressive, so I don't agree with the characterization of it as a "storm specific"

ok, maybe i qualified it too much.. the models have no skill whatsoever in that range.

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Wow. Talk about going down the tubes for snow over PA. Man, I was dead wrong with what I thought this storm would end up doing. Wes, I'll give you props on seeing that this pattern for this storm would not be great. Just have to wait for that PNA to get positve. So, we have AO really negative, NAO negative, but this time we are seeing the Pacifc really dominating things. We certainly have all that arctic air over Canada, some places down to -50, but just can't bring some of that over here in the East. We really needed a strong high to be parked like you said over the Great Lakes and over New England for this storm coming up. For now, let's get that PNA to get positive and then see what happens. Although, I've heard that the key blocking may not hold. Ah, let's what happens..

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You know,when you look at the 6z and 0z 500 maps, they are almost the same. The exception is when you look at the storms. The latest modeling has the storm in almost exactly the same spot, but much stronger. It hangs on longer, where the 6z storm jumped. It's getting close in, but this storm seems so sensitive that just maybe if that piece of energy that's going to create our storm ends up a tad weaker, maybe we end up back at earlier solutions. Grasping yes, but this storm has already proven tough to pin down, so whos to say. Still 3+ days in the future.

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You know,when you look at the 6z and 0z 500 maps, they are almost the same. The exception is when you look at the storms. The latest modeling has the storm in almost exactly the same spot, but much stronger. It hangs on longer, where the 6z storm jumped. It's getting close in, but this storm seems so sensitive that just maybe if that piece of energy that's going to create our storm ends up a tad weaker, maybe we end up back at earlier solutions. Grasping yes, but this storm has already proven tough to pin down, so whos to say. Still 3+ days in the future.

it's so bad that HPC didn't even release an afternoon discussion...it is even pointless to track something in the long range because it won't be there in the short range...a snowless December...again!

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Besides the obvious shift we saw with the 12Z GFS yesterday that dashed many's hopes the tendencies of the GFS runs since then have not been favorable for those hoping for something a little more substantial then just a potential very brief round of frozen at the onset. Since the 12Z the tendencies have been to strengthen the low and slightly move it even further west. Also, whereas we initially had indications of a new low forming to the south and east and the beginnings of a transference from the primary that would have helped to slow the southerly flow down somewhat from eroding the CAD, the GFS seems to be going away from that idea.

Barring a major shift in the GFS, one has to wonder if we are now at the stage where we should be rooting for this storm to go even further west just to prolong any initial round of frozen because the shift needed east to help the winter weather lovers is becoming fairly large and probably close to insurmountable.

Edit: Just to clarify this is all in reference to what the GFS is showing and not the other models and what they may be showing.

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A quick glance over the Euro it seems to me that the setup is slightly better then the 12Z run with a secondary developing and a transfer. But looking at the 500's I am curious if that is how it would play out. Looking at the upper level low and corresponding trough and it's placement with the surface low wouldn't that suggest that we see a strengthening of the primary and no secondary development? Don't know all the dynamics involved and was wondering if a met or other knowledgeable person could chime in. Thanks.

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