Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I use snagit but you can also use powerpoint and snip the image before saving it. Using the latter you can also annotate it if you want. I had a feeling that you used powerpoint after reading your articles through the years. I stick with good ole paint because I'm a simpleton. lol Are you thinking that the messy forecast is pretty much locked in at this point? 6z was just another similar run of snow, ice, ip, zr, and rain all within a 75 mile radius of DC. I'm still leery because a big enough shift can still happen to have a pretty decent change in sensible wx. Just a late transfer would do it. Of course the weenie side of me wants and early transfer and rapid intensification but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 When you post those big maps, the east always gets cut off on my screen. I just noticed that myself. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I had a feeling that you used powerpoint after reading your articles through the years. I stick with good ole paint because I'm a simpleton. lol Are you thinking that the messy forecast is pretty much locked in at this point? 6z was just another similar run of snow, ice, ip, zr, and rain all within a 75 mile radius of DC. I'm still leery because a big enough shift can still happen to have a pretty decent change in sensible wx. Just a late transfer would do it. Of course the weenie side of me wants and early transfer and rapid intensification but that's just me. The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. I'm used to being the transition zone...usually the money transitions from my pocket to my kids hands but the rain/snow line has been out here too over recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS ens plume diagram shows lots more members with snow for sterling than yesterday. The euro and GFS aren't that different so I do think it will be messy but most will see at least a few flakes at onset and that there is potential for significant winter storm west of I95 especially out towards Leesburg and Frederick and points west. The track suggests that from dc east, the precip probalby will change over to freezing rain and rain with the bulk of the precip probably falling as rain. In between DCA and just near Leesburg is the battle zone where it's hard to say how much of the precipitation will end up as snow, sleet or freezing rain. Really small differences in that could pull all the transition zones either west or east depending on the track. Unfortunately for me on the N side of Rockville I'm almost never on the "good" side of the transition zone. If I was still living in Germantown I would have a little more confidence in getting accum snow. Folks up around Parrs could do pretty well. Westminster, Hampstead, etc are probably going to get a good dose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can we keep the Christmas eve system and the later one seperate in different threads? Just a thought. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Chill/DT storm is a major hit out this way on the euro. Temps are great and looks like all snow as modeled. Very sharp cutoff around Mount Weather. That makes sense though as the colder air would be stuck from there west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can we keep the Christmas eve system and the later one seperate in different threads? Just a thought. Thx No doubt about that. My quick look at the 12Z NAM suggests the Christmas eve 850 mb low slips into Ohio and then Port Matilda and ENE. So east of I-81, light snow in the air on the front end with minor accumulations, if any before WAA at 850 mb turns everything wet instead of white. The system after, the system late on 12/26 into 12/27 is the more interesting big brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Jmo- but I think keeping them together for now is fine. Xmas event is still low impact no matter which way you slice it. If the vort pass changes south and the column goes cold with 12z guidance then definitely threadworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Chilly rain on the NAM out here....but just a tad chillier than 6z was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Jmo- but I think keeping them together for now is fine. Xmas event is still low impact no matter which way you slice it. If the vort pass changes south and the column goes cold with 12z guidance then definitely threadworthy. I think each event would be better off with a seperate thread. I mean we had one for each thunderstorm that passed through over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Do I have the right run or is the GFS really bringing this through Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water lol, When I saw the low track to Ky I thought this might be a Ji suicide run. It's track certainly supports the continued wide range of ptype solutions being shown on the GEFS plume diagram, it shows more snow looks thatn yesterday but still has quite a few ones as mostly or all rain. I'd hedge towards the euro for now but think making a deterministic forecast right now would be stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs continues to flip like a fish out of water NCEP is doing us a favor by making the GFS hard to get off their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is about when most of our storms start going to crap. We've just been tracking this one so long it feels like its locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 we're slated to be driving back from CT on the 26th so I am kind of hoping for either a delayed start or for a cold rain. if not we may just stay another day and enjoy the storm up there. Looking at HPC's discussion this morning, it would be great if you could stay a couple days more in Conn. This sounds pretty good for up there: CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT FROM A SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK FROM THE SRN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY TUE/CHRISTMAS DAY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THU-THU NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM SW OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/ERN GRTLKS AND NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well. 12z GFS looks like it was better with the XMAS storm (sadly I am down here, bc obvi NYC is going to see mostly snow), but the following storm is now a complete bust. Will wait for the EURO but prospects with either were never good, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is about when most of our storms start going to crap. We've just been tracking this one so long it feels like its locked in. we just went from 28 and snow to 44 and rain in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NCEP is doing us a favor by making the GFS hard to get off their site. Except the eyewall site doesn't seem to be updating. It still would give a nice ice storm to the far western suburbs but went from high Wed of around 35 or so on the 06Z run to 50 on the 12Z oscillation. I think my quote is going to emphasize the continued uncertainty of the track and where any transition zone set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 warm rainstorm for everyone. So much for a pattern change if 12z gfs is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Except the eyewall site doesn't seem to be updating. It still would give a nice ice storm to the far western suburbs but went from high Wed of around 35 or so on the 06Z run to 50 on the 12Z oscillation. I think my quote is going to emphasize the continued uncertainty of the track and where any transition zone set up. Being still 4 days out from a less-than-ideal setup for a DC winter storm, I don't know why anyone would expect/demand anything more specific. This was never a setup to be on a "mountaintop" beyond the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago JB found this GFS run startling....as we all did. The block has vanished on this run and the storm cuts...is the GFS good with blocking patterns inside 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. That whole eastern canada configuration has been the big bugaboo through all the model gyrations on this storm. When the blocking isn't as good it goes towards the old wes/west track, when it comes back it goes to the DT/Chill version. I've always liked the western version better but yesterday was started to give up. Now I don't know but do think I'd lean towards the Euro and then put in a lot of caveats about the track and what that might mean to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago It was steady for a while but it could be right. I'd not say so until there is more support tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That whole eastern canada configuration has been the big bugaboo through all the model gyrations on this storm. When the blocking isn't as good it goes towards the old wes/west track, when it comes back it goes to the DT/Chill version. I've always liked the western version better but yesterday was started to give up. Now I don't know but do think I'd lean towards the Euro and then put in a lot of caveats about the track and what that might mean to our area. I can't tell for sure because of the subtlety but it appears that the Christmas wave hold the key. We either need it to be slower in its current track or further south and a bit deeper at its current speed to reinforce the block. I can't tell for sure if that's a key ingredient or not but it kinda looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JB found this GFS run startling....as we all did. The block has vanished on this run and the storm cuts...is the GFS good with blocking patterns inside 5 days? Not particularly but it's more typical error is to be too flat. Still the way it has jumped around is just saying that the small differences in the initial conditions are really important right now and that this storm track is not yet very predictable with any certainty. I'm like Bob, I'm amazed that the model had a storm consistently for the last two weeks even though it has jumped it's track from Chicao to the off Hatteras and now back into Ky. Just having a storm is a pretty big modeling coup. We;ve known this would be a stormy period, we just don't know who yet is going to get a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Running the 0z and 12z h5 loops side by side it's easy to see why such a big change in track. Here's 96 from 12z and 108 from 0z. Our little block in Canada goes away and simply opens the door. I have no idea which one is right but the reason for the difference is obvious. Bob, great post. Even a weather novice like myself can understand what u are saying with those maps along with understanding the players on the field that are causing these massive shifts. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hopefully this is a retarted run just like the one that gave Raleigh 18 inches of snow 2 days ago Goofy runs are only wrong when they give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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