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Chill Storm Discussion and Obs


WinterWxLuvr

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Colder. For my area anyway.

Though the GFS has steadily trended colder in my area suggesting a fairly substantial slopfest the NAM and the SREF's are the ones I put more weight into considering the time frame we are at with the storm. At this point both suggest little to no frozen outside of the mountains and should really raise a red flag for anyone in the area hoping for more then a token snow flake or sleet pellet. Here's hoping we start seeing them coming in with substantially colder runs

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A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not.

The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain.

post-70-0-33223400-1356451724_thumb.png

Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather.

post-70-0-78232100-1356451815_thumb.png

Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight.

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A tale of two models. At 18Z today's GFS has the temp at JYO at 34 while the NAM has 36 and change. More importantly, the GFS warm layer still is like 0.6C while the NAM is already 1.6. It essentially has Leesburg as sleet while the GFS still might support snow. Both warm up quickly after that. Leesburg looks to be on the line of where something decent might happen or they join the rest of us with a mostly rain storm. Ths surface temps with this storm just aren't that impressive. Back when I was still at HPC I could get verification at least of the 850 temps and knew the biases. Back then, the GFS usd to be a little cold at 850 and underplayed the elevated warm layer. I don;t know if that is true any longer or not.

The srefs really show that there will be a demarcation somewhere across the area west of DC and east of cumberland Maryland. Dc nmay start as very sloppy above freezing snow but then quickly changes to rain.

post-70-0-33223400-1356451724_thumb.png

Cumberland is far enough west that most of their precip on the various SREF members are some type of winter weather.

post-70-0-78232100-1356451815_thumb.png

Since I ahve no hope of getting any real storm. I'm leaving this thread and will let winterrluvr and those who might get some love have it. My gut feeling is the warmer sounding will be right at least for the elevated layer. At the surface, much depends on how cold it gets tonight.

fringed by the cold air....would be poetic justice for me to get rain while just to my West is pummeled after yesterday's snow.....always on the line here...sometimes it works sometimes no
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I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast

they had us in snow a couple of times already this year even with Sandy. I'm also not a fan.

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I think these maps are kind of silly and completely unreliable....I don't know why people use them with any seriousness....I can't imagine a forecast met keeping his job if he used one of these maps to support his forecast

A lot of mets show them online and stuff. Not completely sure why tho.

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Not sure I understand that, but I didn't understand their forecast of rain for me yesterday morning when the forecast the night before was for snow.

Its marginal cold trying to hold against a heck of a warm push. 18Z NAM brings in the precip faster than 12Z did, and if that's accurate we might see a quick 2-3" of snow early. Imagine we sleet pretty hard after that, and when the rain comes we should be close enough to 32 that heavy rates won't accrete well.

Higher elevations might warrant a warning, but it gets confusing if you WSW a whole county for that.

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