Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see the gfs jump back towards the east this run as the models are really having trouble with the pattern over Canada though that might still not save most of us but could help you. IF so then of course the next run might jump back west again. 18z GFS is the only run Ji should look at. If it's bad, we're really in trouble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How many believed snow? no one believe all snow but western burbs getting a few inches and then ice before rain seemed on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 no one believe all snow but western burbs getting a few inches and then ice before rain seemed on the table That's till not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z GFS is the only run Ji should look at. If it's bad, we're really in trouble.. I wouldn't be surprised if it is bad, new sampling could change things at 0z. I think blocking was being overmodeled, but I'll give it 18z and 0z to see if hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 no one believe all snow but western burbs getting a few inches and then ice before rain seemed on the table Wes makes a good point. With models struggling in Canada, I don't think you can say that solution is of the table. If anybody is 500mb savvy, you can see how the Vort lobe in Canada is all over the place on guidance, as well as that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Christmas thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the vort goes north of us, I doubt we see snow at all. Plus I don't trust the euro clown maps as they would have already given us snow twice this year. Wes, don't we have to wait until that PAC storm is onshore to see what the models ingest in terms of data? Or is that just with short waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wes, don't we have to wait until that PAC storm is onshore to see what the models ingest in terms of data? Or is that just with short waves? Of course it's always nicer to that the shortwave that will produce the storm come into the conus so it can be resolved a little better but I think the bigger issue is the problems the models are having over canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro ens mean is ugly and really supports the operational and it's getting into a time range when it shouldn't be that bad. The depth of the low suggests that most of the members are in the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That is ugly note sure anything can save it now....0z I am sure the JMA, UKMET and CMC will fold...I would think this is the Euro and GFS deadly range...by tomorrow 12z for certain this will be locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ouch. MA winter it is. The bright side is Xmas should be at least cloudy and cool....better than warm and sunny...at least I think it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro ens mean is ugly and really supports the operational and it's getting into a time range when it shouldn't be that bad. The depth of the low suggests that most of the members are in the same general area. that's 6 hrs later than the 18Z NAM at 84 hrs with slp but NAM looks to be in line with the Euro, but not as strong with only a 1004 slp (6 hrs earlier, as I said) http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The bright side is Xmas should be at least cloudy and cool....better than warm and sunny...at least I think it will be Yeah. It rarely pans out or us. Plus Ian will be in FL. KOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If it makes anyone feel any better the 18z NAM has the same setup as the old GFS idea. The block up in Canada is still there and the 500 and surface low placement is identical to the 0z GFS run. Maybe its a initialization or grid size issue. Or its the 84 hr nam and we're just gonna get rain. I'm leaning the latter. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If it makes anyone feel any better the 18z NAM has the same setup as the old GFS idea. The block up in Canada is still there and the 500 and surface low placement is identical to the 0z GFS run. Maybe its a initialization or grid size issue. Or its the 84 hr nam and we're just gonna get rain. I'm leaning the latter. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. It is the NAM. Good try.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How many believed snow? Days and days of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18Z looks awful now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still some ice in western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Terrible. Even the 18z can't save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Terrible. Even the 18z can't save us. Goes from cold rain to warm rain. Tropical storm feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Goes from cold rain to warm rain. Tropical storm feel? About as bad a run as you can get up the whole coast. Maybe the 18z still being the 18z. SNE must be lively this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Goes from cold rain to warm rain. Tropical storm feel? call me Ji...winter really is over....we will be dealing with this until March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anybody remember a week or so ago when Wes told us over and over that the pattern favored a track to the north and West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anybody remember a week or so ago when Wes told us over and over that the pattern favored a track to the north and West? Seriously, there is really no point in going through all of this agony over these storms. Just read the updates from Wes. He is pretty much never wrong 5-10 days out and within 4 days he is deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anybody remember a week or so ago when Wes told us over and over that the pattern favored a track to the north and West? Even if it transfers there are so many problems associated with that type of event. Could easily see a trend back east still.. But, this whole model thing is almost predictable.. we can't forecasts as well without them but sometimes I wonder if we really need as many and as often. Many times you see a forecast idea from further out end up having to vacillate with the models only to end up back nearer the original idea. Perhaps it's just random. We don't do well with tricky setups here. I know some say 1/4" followed by rain is a win but it's a pretty small win if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Fugly 18z? Glad didn't wait for it to load. Only consolation the entire coast is screwed. NE folks must be getting out the hemlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 If it makes anyone feel any better the 18z NAM has the same setup as the old GFS idea. The block up in Canada is still there and the 500 and surface low placement is identical to the 0z GFS run. Maybe its a initialization or grid size issue. Or its the 84 hr nam and we're just gonna get rain. I'm leaning the latter. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. The NAM is isnt a global model right? Which would be more likely to accurate with features in southern Canada because by the 84 panel the NAM and GFS are miles apart at 500 level in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I know exactly what you're saying Ian. For the most part, almost nobody looks passed 5 days. It's just weird with winter weather. There's a common interest with such a large groups of folks. Hurricanes too but still not as big as winter weenies. I've been into it for as long as I can remember. Like many others as well. I even moved to the Rockies for 7 years because I was a very avid skier. I was probably into skiing so much because of the snow affliction. For whatever really weird reason we all get attached to any and every snowy pattern and threat. I'm sure some shrink somewhere knows why. I sure don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Terrible. Even the 18z can't save us. It's over, what an ugly run. After seeing the euro ens mean and this pathetic solution it's time to stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's over, what an ugly run. After seeing the euro ens mean and this pathetic solution it's time to stick a fork in it. how is the Jan 2 wes storm doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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