ncskywarn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Waiting for the GOOD News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z GFS is running may the odds be in everyone's favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 may the odds be in everyone's favor! I'll 2nd that motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Digging at 72 over west tx EDIT: looks to be digging more than 18z...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is EURO like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The christmas S/W is much more potent this run than a few of the previous runs, so a trend toward the cmc in that regard. Hopefully that helps suppress it more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Over sw la at 90. almost identical position as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Way inland at 96. looks to be an apps runner. 3mb stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hour 105 snow west Tennessee into central Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 0Z GFS is saying that the 12Z GGEM is, as is often the case, off of its rocker with its Miller A. That's why I'm saying there is a 95% chance the GGEM is a good bit too far south and that this will be a mainly nonevent wintrywisefor almost all of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Its not too far off from the euro at the SFC, but MUCH different at 500mb....GFS at 500mb looks weird and wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Going into west/central tn at 102. big cad signature though. west of the apps at 108...nobody is going to like this run except maybe western tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is WEAK!! I think we are seeing the usual "noise" with the GFS in its "not so good range from d3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hour 114 snow central Louisiana to north Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 0Z GFS is saying that the 12Z GGEM is, as is often the case, off of its rocker with its Miller A. That's why I'm saying there is a 95% chance the GGEM is a good bit too far south It's not just the cmc, the ukie and the nogaps look identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 117 snow western NC, Atlanta, GA north, all of TN, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 117 snow western NC, Atlanta, GA north, all of TN, that's probably just cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 123 snow left in TN...never makes it much east of the mountains in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 meh, I don't think the GFS is right....just something not adding up on this run...energy is all strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There was no stream separation this run like there was on 18z, that's why it wrapped up quicker. that's gonna be the key feature to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 123 snow left in TN...never makes it much east of the mountains in NC. It's too light. That's snow showers with little if any accumulation at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 that's probably just cold chasing moisture. West of the Apps event on this run. May be cold chasing moisture for LA...and far southern places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 West of the Apps event on this run. May be cold chasing moisture for LA...and far southern places. like valkhorn said, that is .01" qpf, that's flurries at best even in tn. let's see what the gfs shows for our other threats in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 West of the Apps event on this run. May be cold chasing moisture for LA...and far southern places. Verbatim, this is what it looks like. It doesn't look good for most of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 like valkhorn said, that is .01" qpf, that's flurries at best even in tn. let's see what the gfs shows for our other threats in the long range. I never said a whole lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hour 114 snow central Louisiana to north Georgia 117 snow western NC, Atlanta, GA north, all of TN, 123 snow left in TN...never makes it much east of the mountains in NC. Don't make it sound like it's anything spectacular. It's just flurries for TN verbatim. NC doesn't get anything really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's not just the cmc, the ukie and the nogaps look identical. 1) The NOGAPS isn't even worthy of being followed. It is a terrible model and isn't important. That's not just my opinion. That is an opinion shared by many met.'s. It may be as bad as the DGEX. 2) The 12Z Ukie is not idential to the 12Z CMC. The low goes over central GA about 150 miles west of Savannah. That track would easily be too far north/west for snow for the bulk of N GA outside of the mountains (and maybe even the mountains), which is the area I was addressing. 3) So, as far as I'm concerned, you have the 12Z CMC vs. all of the other credible models and with the more credible GFS/Euro runs being quite a bit further NW. So, it is close to a nobrainer which way to bet as of now and it certainly isn't the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS changes from run to run.. No need tp panic. If we get anything in December its a bonus. We get most jan and feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I never said a whole lot of snow. We had the GFS light green over Knoxville the past day. You don't get accumulation with that, unfortunately. The heaviest band of snow is pretty close to the Euro if I'm not mistaken. Never fear though, it's not January yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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