MillerA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Allan's update http://www.examiner.com/article/numerous-winter-storm-threats-ahead-for-the-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Over the panhandle at 102...def southern/eastern trend. cutting inland though, looks to be headed for the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 More stream separation as of 90 hours than at 12z - that is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z getting our hopes up again -- 850 low not closing off as strongly and is SE of 12z GFS position. Fool me twice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Although the 18Z is further SE than the 12Z, remember the 18Z has has a SE solution to each of its runs the past few days.. This one further north than the rest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z while further SE doesn't get nearly amped enough just kind of "meh". On to the 00z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 big trend SE and weaker. just what we want to see. stream sep. early in the run was key in this. 12z run 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I will say that I think this southeast trend is quite plausible with several models suggesting more stream separation and considering the overall synoptic pattern. My biggest concern is just the lack of cold air for the CLT to RDU zone prior to the onset of the event. Unless we see a stronger high ahead of the system in the coming runs, I'm not sure this will be much to write home about in those areas, even if we do see a low coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I will say that I think this southeast trend is quite plausible with several models suggesting more stream separation and considering the overall synoptic pattern. My biggest concern is just the lack of cold air for the CLT to RDU zone prior to the onset of the event. Unless we see a stronger high ahead of the system in the coming runs, I'm not sure this will be much to write home about in those areas, even if we do see a low coming up from the south. That Christmas eve storm keeps the heights ahead of this storm pretty flat. It also puts the SE into NW flow behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A few GFS members have hinted at a flat wave out to sea solution. It's on the table I guess, but I really don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The vort never closed off, which is why it's less amped, yesterday it closed off and was timed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Robert has a good write up on his site about the storm, says possible major Ice storm nw NC into Va. Just 12 hours ago you said Robert said no chance at all of anything frozen. Good to see its possible now I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just 12 hours ago you said Robert said no chance at all of anything frozen. Good to see its possible now I guess. That's what it looked like with the models runs at that time.. I'm sure there will be many more ajustments before Wednesday!!! It's weather so hang on it will change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GFS hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GEFS has the SLP over Hatteras at 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z gfs ensemble mean. No more apps runner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like the lack of cold air is gonna be the biggest problem for those of us wanting wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That's a good look for Tennessee And WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like the lack of cold air is gonna be the biggest problem for those of us wanting wintry precip This has been my primary concern all along with this one. The cold air source really isn't all that super cold. So, weak cold air transport from a non-super cold cold air source is not going to be enough to get it done for most of us. If much colder air was in closer proximity to us, then I'd be a bit more optimistic. My primary enthusiasm about this event, other than the much needed rain is that I think it will help lay the groundwork for future opportunities. There are still ways it could work out, but there's a very narrow set of parameters that would have to perfectly align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Old maps are old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Starting to remind me of Dec 2009 storm....I thought that was modeled to cut in 6-8 day range, lack of true cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Those maps are old wilkesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So much forecasting clustering around NC - leaving us TN folks in the dust. I think I'll just wait and see. It's not like I can control it anyway. Euro's west, GFS is west and east, and it looks like a warm nose could develop into east TN. I wouldn't be surprised. Nashville might do really well from this. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just 12 hours ago you said Robert said no chance at all of anything frozen. Good to see its possible now I guess. He updates throughout the day taking into consideration the latest guidance. So, yeah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From MRX: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-222015- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 /205 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID- WEEK NEXT WEEK PRODUCING LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. Also, maybe this could give us a clue as to where the moisture is headed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 HPC hugging the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For what it is worth, the 0z NoGAPS was in the GGEM camp with a 995mb low over ILM while the 12z skirted offshore before bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow, yea im thinking the 18z is a outlier after looking at the 0, 6, and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I've not been all that interested in this storm leading to sig. wintry precip. for the bulk of N GA because I've yet to see a single Euro or GFS run indicate that. The tracks have been clearly too far north and it isn't shown to be that cold. Even much of NC doesn't get much on some of the runs. (TN does better.) Then I did a major doubletake when I just now noticed the 12Z GGEM actually gives N GA just north of a line from ATL to AHN a major snow (as much as ~4-6" for the heaviest spots!) due to a Miller A track from the FL panhandle to Savannah. Although the most optimal track for major S for ATL-AHN, itself, to make sure it is cold enough is over the N FL pen. (say ~75 miles south), there have been some that did travel the 12Z GGEM's route and produced major S there or just barely north of there. So, I wouldn't just dismiss this track as being too far north to possibly produce S near ATL-AHN. The problem is that I don't at all buy this track since the GGEM is generally an inferior model to the GFS and Euro. Also, the GGEM may have a bit of a southward track bias, especially when it is so much further south than the GFS/Euro. Right now, due to a little bit of deference to the GGEM just in case it is somehow on to something since it is still five days away, I'm giving this storm a 5% chance of producing major wintry precip. in the bulk of nonmountainous GA north of ATL-AHN. For far north GA (say Rome to Gainseville north), I'm giving it about a 10% chance for now. Had the GFS and Euro had several of their most recent runs like this, I probably would be thinking something like 25% chance for north of ATL-AHN and somewhat higher for far north GA. However, they haven't been showing a Miller A. So, the reality is that there is something like a 95% chance that the GGEM is too far south/too cold. Furthermore, there hasn't been a major Dec. S/IP at KATL since 1917! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I won't be up for the 00z runs tonight as I have to get up early in the morning. Good luck guys and hopefully my absence brings us some good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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