tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 If I was in Nashville or southern KY I would have a pretty good feeling about this..... As good as you can feel this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DT just posted a image. i think his thinking has some merit now with models shifting east. He always tells it so elegantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro in the long range has our new years storm a little quicker -coming on 12/30 now. looks like a miller a and temps look decent. On 12/29, the primary surface low heads to St. Louis, tho there is another weak sfc low signature over Mobile....so, it looks Miller B-ish, with the coastal low forming and sitting east of DC on 12/30. Damming signature is lacking, but overall look is not bad especially if the 12/27 storm bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hey, just like I called it! Personally I won't be upset if this storm is dubbed the "Charlotte Special"...but I'll be rooting for a solution that helps out RDU as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 On 12/29, the primary surface low heads to St. Louis, tho there is another weak sfc low signature over Mobile....so, it looks Miller B-ish, with the coastal low forming and sitting east of DC on 12/30. Damming signature is lacking, but overall look is not bad especially if the 12/27 storm bombs out. That is not the event.. the actual storm that the GFS has shown is backing out into the Pacific on the 12z Euro. It typically does this a lot, so don't fret just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That is not the event.. the actual storm that the GFS has shown is backing out into the Pacific on the 12z Euro. It typically does this a lot, so don't fret just yet! It's a significant storm on the Euro though...one in a parade of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Big difference from 0z Euro to 12z Euro. 0z closed off the vort at NM/ TX border....12z was at MS River. 12z GEM doesn't fully close it off until eastern NC. 12z GEM is a thing of beauty for western Carolina/ N GA snow fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Big difference from 0z Euro to 12z Euro. 0z closed off the vort at NM/ TX border....12z was at MS River. 12z GEM doesn't fully close it off until eastern NC. 12z GEM is a thing of beauty for western Carolina/ N GA snow fans. I agree with. 850's are marginal in NGA but any small strength in dynamics would take care of that. I believe the 12z Euro would throw some snow underneath that strong sfc low pulling just to the north of GA. Of course I'm saying that without looking at any of the QPF maps but rather just by looking at how the 850s are wrapping around underneath the storm and the strength of the low. To top that off the 12z EURO also shows a nice ice storm on the 29th with snow north of Atlanta. It's so nice to actually see fantasy storms showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS looks like the OP. Closed low over E TN tracking ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS looks like the OP. Closed low over E TN tracking ENE. Strong signal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 MRX thinks it's of interest: 000 FXUS64 KMRX 212001 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 243 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE TN AND SW VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOME NEUTRAL TONIGHT AND IS WEAKLY WARM ON SATURDAY. TONIGHT MINS WILL BE RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH COLDER READINGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL LATE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO PULL NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK CYCLONGENESIS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WILL FOCUS THE GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL PHASE OVER THE PLAIN STATES TUESDAY THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS WILL PRODUCE STRONG LIFT OVER THE AREA ENHANCING FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING. LATEST RUN SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. We'll probably see some flakes in Knoxville - but I wonder if we'll get any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nashville: PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/ DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SW THIS MORNING, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID STATE. CLOUDS STILL BLANKET THE UPPER PLATEAU, BUT CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING. AM EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY OUT TO 22Z, AS WINDS DON`T SEEM TO LET UP UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL FURTHER DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND, AT LEAST UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE SATURDAY. MODELS BRING A QUICK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A GREATER CHANCE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES THIS SYSTEM AND ADDS TS TO THE FORECAST. THE BIG STORY THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE GULF AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE STORM TAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN TRACK WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. AT ANY RATE, WE COULD GET SNOW JUST OUT OF THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE, REGARDLESS. FOR NOW, WE`LL GO WITH A SAFE RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE MODEL SOLUTIONS. It looks like west and middle TN may do better than east TN at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z ECMWF ENS looks like the OP. Closed low over E TN tracking ENE. Hey Jon, where are you getting your ENS maps from for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DT just posted a image. i think his thinking has some merit now with models shifting east. "PHSYICS RULE" Spelling, notsomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NWS Raleigh Still thinking that any wintery precipitation will be North and West of their forecast area per latest AFD. They are also talking about the possibility of severe weather as well. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... FORECAST RATIONALE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. A LEAD S/W TROUGH FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE THAT WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MON-MON NIGHT. A PRECEDING WARM CONVEYOR/ISENTROPICALLY- DRIVEN CLOUD BAND AND AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MON EVENING. THE EARLIER DAY ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A 8-10 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE RAH CWFA - AROUND 50 NW TO NEAR 60 SE. FOR MID-WEEK: AS HAS BEEN NOTED...SURFACE EVOLUTION WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF BAFFIN ISLAND...AND AN ELONGATED VORTEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKED FLOW WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...WHERE IT WILL BE MET WITH AN ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH JET. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC PIEDMONTS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CP HIGH WILL ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS...COURTESY OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LEAD FRONTAL WAVE FROM MON-MON NIGHT. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH TOWARD THE SAVANNAH BASIN DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD OWING TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN ADVANCE OF THE A STRONGER WAVE SCHEDULED FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND WED. THE PRESENCE OF THE CAD HIGH -- ONE MAINTAINED BY THE LARGE SCALE FLOW -- WILL CAUSE THE INCIPIENT LOW LIFTING FROM THE WESTERN GOM TO YIELD TO A MILLER TYPE-B COASTAL LOW THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTHEAST COASTS. WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED WINTRY WEATHER THREAT IS STILL FORECAST TO HOLD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NC...THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP MILLER B LOWS AND WEDGE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR WET...AND INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY AND INFLUX OF WINDY WARM SECTOR AIR ON WED - QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EPISODE OF THURSDAY. UNLIKE THURSDAY...HOWEVER...MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT FROM BOTH THE GOM AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL FUEL A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVANCING WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT/MILLER B LOW. MEANWHILE THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN THE WEDGE REGIME...IN THE 40S. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM BY WED NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well as Jon said the Euro ENS is an inland track...just the western edge of TN verbatim gets in on the action of snow on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GGEM ENS lines up well with the OP, but with the Euro/GFS fairly close, I feel they have the right idea. Maybe the UK track would be a compromise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The euro looks like a big ice threat for the northern foothills and up into VA. 850s maybe supportive for snow in the mtns . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'll take the UK track all day long. The good thing is someone in this thread will most likely get accumulations from this storm, and we still have more to track after this it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 EURO Accupro Snow map... . Can be seen here for those who want to see... Henry Margusity Fan Club Liked · about an hour ago via HootSuite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 CMC ENS is pretty much an exact match of the CMC OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 CMC ENS is pretty much an exact match of the CMC OP. In my opinion, that gives the run more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 In my opinion, that gives the run more weight. definitely does but models are all over the place. It will be a few days before we can pinpoint the exact track but its fun to watch it unfold. I enjoy this process almost as much as watching it in my backyard..okay not really but I am usually too tired to care at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 CMC ENS is pretty much an exact match of the CMC OP. Tough to go against the gfs and euro, but I'm liking the trends for sure. Interesting model battle coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Robert has a good write up on his site about the storm, says possible major Ice storm nw NC into Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Stumbled upon this afternoon long term afd from MOB. They are leaning towards a gfs/euro forecast but, not yet ready to throw out the other model runs. BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER POWERFUL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER TEXAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING QUICKLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS/AL BY THE EVENING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THIS TRACK WAS TO VERIFY...OUR REGION WOULD BE PLACED IN THE UNSTABLE...HIGHLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR...AND SEVERE WEATHER (INCLUDING TORNADOES) ON CHRISTMAS DAY WOULD BECOME A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW A STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WHICH ACTUALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS MAKES THE SECONDARY/STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA...GREATLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SINCE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN...IT WILL NOT BE PROPERLY SAMPLED BY OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT OF THE ECMWF/GFS... WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND URGE EVERYBODY TO STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK WET...ESPECIALLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL BE MILD AND HUMID AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z is really digging our shortwave out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z is really digging our shortwave out west. It should definitely be SE of previous runs, of course I thought the same about the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It should definitely be SE of previous runs, of course I thought the same about the 12z euro. It's really blowing up that storm at 84 hours for the mid atlantic. I think this run might be flat with the after Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Over sw la at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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