deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The euro has some 70-75kt H85 winds over GA and pushing into SC by WED AM (GA 00z WED) hello wind shear!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Have you ever participated in wxchallenge? If you have you would know how hard it is to even forecast that next day. Even mets fail at it. And you think you can nail down the temp and synoptic pattern this far out? Thats crazy to think so. He's talking about this run of the Euro. Chill out. Just like when I said it could be snow on the backend...I was talking about the individual run not "it could be snow on the back end because of the trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian is probably a foot or more of snow across most of NC. Can you post it, it isn't up on raleigh's site yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think the trends are more important here. We had yesterdays GFS off runs show basically a miller A, CMC/Ukie today show bascally the same setup. Overall all of the models have been slowly windsheild wiping south/east. The Euro was a step in the right direction. It dug the shortwave deeper, more confluence in the northeast, and a better damming setup. Obviously the end result wasn't what people wanted to see but this is still 5 days out. That is exactly what I was saying. Of course, it could go back in the other direction this far out, but we'll just have to see which way the trend goes. Right now it looks better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Can you post it, it isn't up on raleigh's site yet. I'm mobile today, can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian is probably a foot or more of snow across most of NC. Based just on 850 temps and surface temps it looks like possibly a mainly sleet event for RDU, it wouldn't be snow with the 850 line near GSO - but details at this point are insignificant! Edit: Honestly I'm just guessing, it actually might be all rain - I can't tell with no soundings or partial thicknesses to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 MTV gets a hell of a snow/Ice storm though. Cutoff line is probably close to the NC border What do the totals look like for Martinsville??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian is probably a foot or more of snow across most of NC. QPF on the Canadian is around 1.25 - 1.5 inches for almost all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc? Yes, but the surface low track is largely dictated by the upper level pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 QPF on the Canadian is around 1.25 - 1.5 inches for almost all of NC. Traveling today..... Not that it matters but what is the qpf for ktri off the 12z cmc burger ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Based just on 850 temps and surface temps it looks like possibly a mainly sleet event for RDU, it wouldn't be snow with the 850 line near GSO - but details at this point are insignificant! Edit: Honestly I'm just guessing, it actually might be all rain - I can't tell with no soundings or partial thicknesses to look at. I can say the Ptype maps show snow in Charlotte and on up 77/85 to GSO...and I think I saw the 540 line deep into the upstate. I'm just excited about that track because that's a money track for CLT and the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What do the totals look like for Martinsville??? If I had to guess 3-4" of snow(maybe, could be IP) then a good bit of either zr or ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc? It does, further south it can can pull down more air also less WAA (warm air advection) I believe. Should be noted on the Canadian SFC temps are in the 40's for all of NC...but at this stage it's the track we need and as Briar said too early for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 p-type on Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Traveling today..... Not that it matters but what is the qpf for ktri off the 12z cmc burger ? I don't have the qpf but the Ukie and CMC would be big hits for both of us. Euro takes the low over your house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can say the Ptype maps show snow in Charlotte and on up 77/85 to GSO...and I think I saw the 540 line deep into the upstate. I'm just excited about that track because that's a money track for CLT and the upstate. You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 p-type on Canadian... Hey, just like I called it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days. Well, it would just be huge if the CMC pulls it off. The old saying on the boards are storms NEVER trend that way, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I looked at the 12 Euro - and just like the 12z GFS it shafts Knoxville. Oh well - I guess I'll be watching the trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i will say it is promising to see the euro trend towards the ukie/canadian/cmc in regards to the low digging deep into the gulf at around 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The euro absolutely dumps from Memphis to Evansville Indiana. Tight gradient, due to it being so wrapped up. BNA would end up with maybe two inches, while Paris TN, like 60 miles nw as the crow flies, would have a foot. I'll roll the dice with the heavy snow that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So......since we are tied at 2-2 who has the JMA for the tie breaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Someone gets it... How about cutting down on the snarky comments. It's getting old real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc? At that point we look closely at vort interactions within the trough/ULL configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days. Still plenty of time to do so, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 LOL....It looks like the JMA has the low over Burger's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro in the long range has our new years storm a little quicker -coming on 12/30 now. looks like a miller a and temps look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DT just posted a image. i think his thinking has some merit now with models shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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