Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Late December Discussion and Christmas um Event


Cold Rain

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 670
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Have you ever participated in wxchallenge? If you have you would know how hard it is to even forecast that next day. Even mets fail at it. And you think you can nail down the temp and synoptic pattern this far out? Thats crazy to think so.

He's talking about this run of the Euro. Chill out. Just like when I said it could be snow on the backend...I was talking about the individual run not "it could be snow on the back end because of the trend".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the trends are more important here. We had yesterdays GFS off runs show basically a miller A, CMC/Ukie today show bascally the same setup. Overall all of the models have been slowly windsheild wiping south/east. The Euro was a step in the right direction. It dug the shortwave deeper, more confluence in the northeast, and a better damming setup. Obviously the end result wasn't what people wanted to see but this is still 5 days out.

That is exactly what I was saying. Of course, it could go back in the other direction this far out, but we'll just have to see which way the trend goes. Right now it looks better and better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian is probably a foot or more of snow across most of NC.

Based just on 850 temps and surface temps it looks like possibly a mainly sleet event for RDU, it wouldn't be snow with the 850 line near GSO - but details at this point are insignificant!

Edit: Honestly I'm just guessing, it actually might be all rain - I can't tell with no soundings or partial thicknesses to look at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc?

Yes, but the surface low track is largely dictated by the upper level pattern

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based just on 850 temps and surface temps it looks like possibly a mainly sleet event for RDU, it wouldn't be snow with the 850 line near GSO - but details at this point are insignificant!

Edit: Honestly I'm just guessing, it actually might be all rain - I can't tell with no soundings or partial thicknesses to look at.

I can say the Ptype maps show snow in Charlotte and on up 77/85 to GSO...and I think I saw the 540 line deep into the upstate.

I'm just excited about that track because that's a money track for CLT and the upstate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc?

It does, further south it can can pull down more air also less WAA (warm air advection) I believe. Should be noted on the Canadian SFC temps are in the 40's for all of NC...but at this stage it's the track we need and as Briar said too early for specifics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can say the Ptype maps show snow in Charlotte and on up 77/85 to GSO...and I think I saw the 540 line deep into the upstate.

I'm just excited about that track because that's a money track for CLT and the upstate.

You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days.

Well, it would just be huge if the CMC pulls it off. The old saying on the boards are storms NEVER trend that way, LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the canadian. The canadian and the 12z euro have the slp positioned in the same area, in the gulf over southern la. It is after that as to where the differences lie. Now even if the slp tracks further south does that help the cold air situation in nc?

At that point we look closely at vort interactions within the trough/ULL configuration.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're right, the slp track is near perfect for CLT, not so much for RDU. For RDU, we'd like to see that baby slide east another 50 miles or so. Of course, **if** the CMC is right with the upper level pattern evolution, this is a big win over needing a 700 mile shift east per the last few days.

Still plenty of time to do so, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...