deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Moving E at 114...GA/FL and maybe SE SVR weather. Snowing in W TN/ and MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meh...lol Starting to cut over central MS a little bit at hour 108 It looked like it closed off much later too, but its still stated cutting over MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 @114 the low has split with the big one going through central TN...heavy snow in eastern AR and western AL. 1024 high parked in PA which then retrogrades to NY @120 with possible snow now hitting west GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meh...lol Starting to cut over central MS a little bit at hour 108 Gonna be a good run for W TN, they should get dumped on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is it still phasing with the piece of the ULL that is breaking off from the main ULL over the northeast? Not really....its moving more east than anything...Its separate from the confluence in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 @126 possible snow for WNC from CLT west...hard to tell if this is a cold chasing rain scenario....either way this is a better run for sure...everything was shifted south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hour 126....its trying to secondary over E NC, but a pretty good run for the most part. I know the snow lovers of GA/SC/NC won't like it so much, but this would be a potential big SVR threat for SE bama, GA and SC, with FL as well. Snow for MS/TN and eventually into N bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Phased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 hour 126....its trying to secondary over E NC, but a pretty good run for the most part. I know the snow lovers of GA/SC/NC won't like it so much, but this would be a potential big SVR threat for SE bama, GA and SC, with FL as well. Snow for MS/TN and eventually into N bama. Thought for sure it would be further SE than it was considering how it looked earlier in the run.....good step in the right direction for the snow lovers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Big shift south, the s/w dug much deeper. At 96 it was over southern la in the gulf where at 00z last night it was cutting up thru miss.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thought for sure it would be further SE than it was considering how it looked earlier in the run.....good step in the right direction for the snow lovers though. Agreed, but this looks stronger, and I love the confluence over the NE...step for sure in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Agreed, but this looks stronger, and I love the confluence over the NE...step for sure in the right direction Bets are in for the Euro ENS, I'm betting it keeps it further SE. CMC and Ukie might be on to something for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's nowhere close to cold enough at the SFC in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Big shift south, the s/w dug much deeper. At 96 it was over southern la in the gulf where at 00z last night it was cutting up thru miss.! South or just slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's nowhere close to cold enough at the SFC in NC You are correct! Cold rain.... WED 06Z 26-DEC 4.8 -0.1 1015 84 99 0.02 560 548 WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.2 1.3 1006 97 99 0.67 555 550 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.7 2.4 995 90 48 0.74 541 545 THU 00Z 27-DEC 1.9 -5.6 998 77 91 0.06 534 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Agreed, but this looks stronger, and I love the confluence over the NE...step for sure in the right direction 120 hours 0z then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I kind of like the look at hr144 for the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's nowhere close to cold enough at the SFC in NC i would not pay attention to the temperatures. pay attention to the synoptic pattern this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Might not be anything but rain, but I like the trend and think this could be just setting up things for the next system. This pattern is going to bring something good out of it eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 MTV gets a hell of a snow/Ice storm though. Cutoff line is probably close to the NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i would not pay attention to the temperatures. pay attention to the synoptic pattern this far out. You ALWAYS, ALWAYS have to be concerned with temps in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i would not pay attention to the temperatures. pay attention to the synoptic pattern this far out. He's been doing this a lot longer than you have on this board. I think he knows what to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 i would not pay attention to the temperatures. pay attention to the synoptic pattern this far out. Hey, if you can make it be 7C colder, have at it. There isn't 7C worth of cold air left in the pattern, unless the storm shifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian stuck with the TLH-HAT track, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z ECMWF still phases with the northern stream earlier than CMC, at which point the shortwave rapidly cuts off and pulls the surface low westward. I still think with the tendency of the ECMWF to over-phase systems that this one has to be watched carefully. This is the very same scenario that happened back in February, and the CMC correctly kept the two streams separate, which allowed for a more southern track. I wouldn't write this one off yet. 12 CMC: 12z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Trends my friends, trends...it's all about the trends and 12z euro is certainly a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hey, if you can make it be 7C colder, have at it. There isn't 7C worth of cold air left in the pattern, unless the storm shifts south. Have you ever participated in wxchallenge? If you have you would know how hard it is to even forecast that next day. Even mets fail at it. And you think you can nail down the temp and synoptic pattern this far out? Thats crazy to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think the trends are more important here. We had yesterdays GFS off runs show basically a miller A, CMC/Ukie today show bascally the same setup. Overall all of the models have been slowly windsheild wiping south/east. The Euro was a step in the right direction. It dug the shortwave deeper, more confluence in the northeast, and a better damming setup. Obviously the end result wasn't what people wanted to see but this is still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian is probably a foot or more of snow across most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Trends my friends, trends...it's all about the trends and 12z euro is certainly a trend Someone gets it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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