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Late December Discussion and Christmas um Event


Cold Rain

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Euro ENS isn't out for me yet. Ukie has the low in far southern LA/AL coast @120. GFS ENS Mean looked a good bit east from the OP to me. Had the low running from CLT to RDU then off the coast.

Euro Ensemble mean SFC low track is from eastern TN then redeveloping in eastern VA.

6z GFS ens mean SFC low position is between RDU and FAY at 132.

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Thanks for the clarification. There is a reason why I run social media and am not on the other side of a camera talking to people about weather :bag:

Haha... no, you were on it! Was just throwing out there what I had just seen.....

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heres the Text output for Nashville from the 0z Euro. Little backside snow per this run

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591

00Z DEC21

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 4.6 -6.9 1010 51 85 0.00 541 533

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -8.8 1015 46 88 0.00 539 527

FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 -8.1 1018 47 27 0.00 539 525

FRI 18Z 21-DEC 4.2 -7.3 1021 38 12 0.00 547 530

SAT 00Z 22-DEC 2.0 -4.7 1022 41 1 0.00 555 537

SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.6 -1.3 1025 50 10 0.00 560 540

SAT 12Z 22-DEC -4.2 2.0 1027 64 14 0.00 563 542

SAT 18Z 22-DEC 5.3 3.3 1026 37 19 0.00 566 545

SUN 00Z 23-DEC 0.8 5.0 1023 66 11 0.00 566 547

SUN 06Z 23-DEC 0.1 6.6 1021 65 25 0.00 565 549

SUN 12Z 23-DEC 2.1 4.0 1019 67 27 0.00 564 549

SUN 18Z 23-DEC 11.1 4.3 1017 57 37 0.00 563 550

MON 00Z 24-DEC 9.4 5.2 1016 78 25 0.01 563 550

MON 06Z 24-DEC 9.0 6.1 1015 97 42 0.04 564 551

MON 12Z 24-DEC 9.5 7.5 1013 98 78 0.07 562 552

MON 18Z 24-DEC 12.3 8.3 1009 96 77 0.33 559 552

TUE 00Z 25-DEC 12.2 6.3 1008 98 35 0.33 556 550

TUE 06Z 25-DEC 10.1 4.9 1012 98 8 0.02 560 550

TUE 12Z 25-DEC 7.8 5.9 1014 98 4 0.01 561 549

TUE 18Z 25-DEC 9.3 6.7 1012 83 16 0.01 560 549

WED 00Z 26-DEC 7.7 6.2 1007 97 100 0.33 558 552

WED 06Z 26-DEC 11.7 8.8 998 99 51 0.37 553 555

WED 12Z 26-DEC 6.2 -3.3 997 89 57 0.12 537 540

WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.4 -7.4 1002 80 96 0.06 534 532

THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -11.4 1010 62 79 0.04 537 529

THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.9 -10.9 1015 71 63 0.03 542 531

THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.4 -6.7 1020 70 20 0.01 552 536

THU 18Z 27-DEC 1.3 -2.1 1022 63 6 0.00 558 540

FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.4 0.0 1022 80 19 0.00 563 545

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So we have the UKMET and GEM with a straight Miller A... similar to 18z GFS yesterday.Obviously, different on the 0z and 6z GFS and 0z Euro.

All has to do with the timing of that vort closing off and when it makes the left-hand turn...

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The evolution of the current system that will turn into the 50/50 low for the 12/26 event is changing with every model and every model run it seems. The ECMWF is doing something completely different that the GFS/UKMET/CMC, in that it is actually developing two ULLs - one in south-central Canada, and another in the 50/50 region. It ends up phasing the one in south-central Canada with our southern stream shortwave, causing it to take a negative tilt and start lifting out of the trough quicker. We know the ECMWF has a tendency to phase anything it can, so I can't buy into that solution entirely until we see other models starting to do the same thing.

How the 50/50 low develops and how far south it remains are going to be critical for us because 1) it will provide more upper level diffluence confluence which will result in the surface high we need over the northeast, and 2) it will force the shortwave to remain further south. Look at the difference between the 18z solution over southeastern Canada and the 00z from last night.

18z GFS:

18zgfs500mbvort132.gif

00z GFS:

00zgfs500mbvort126.gif

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All of these model solutions with NO consistency...frustrating but fun nonetheless. Lets hope we can get some better model runs today. Either way, there are a lot of things to watch during the coming weeks. I have a feeling 1 or more of these vorts will bring some wintery weather to the SE. Picking out which one and where is the hard part :whistle: .....Stay tuned......

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One thing that stood out to me in looking at the 00z runs is with respect to the lead wave that treks across the midwest and into the Great Lakes at days 3-4...the Canadian is stronger with this wave (it closes it off as seen below at day 4)...and that forces the next wave (our storm of interest) to take a more southern route underneath the confluence. Also, the 2 waves are a little closer together on the Canadian, again, forcing it to dig.

cmcg.png

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One thing that stood out to me in looking at the 00z runs is with respect to the lead wave that treks across the midwest and into the Great Lakes at days 3-4...the Canadian is stronger with this wave (it closes it off as seen below at day 4)...and that forces the next wave (our storm of interest) to take a more southern route underneath the confluence. Also, the 2 waves are a little closer together on the Canadian, again, forcing it to dig.

cmck.png

As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)?

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As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)?

Yes, and now the the nogaps this is the only image I could muster. It's weaker and farther south and east too.

f132.gif

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As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)?

Yes, I agree. On the Canadian, the first wave swings a cold front through, then moves on out to the NE allowing the next wave to drop in with the storm. It's perfect timing really, which is what it will take...Chaminade beating Virginia is what comes to mind.

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