tarheelwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Anyone have the euro ensembles or info on the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Anyone have the euro ensembles or info on the ukie? Euro ENS isn't out for me yet. Ukie has the low in far southern LA/AL coast @120. GFS ENS Mean looked a good bit east from the OP to me. Had the low running from CLT to RDU then off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Seems like the east trend is still in motion. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Seems like the east trend is still in motion. Tw Looked to my untrained eye like the Euro ENS was east of the OP...but it's difficult to tell because it kind of breaks off into two lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ENS isn't out for me yet. Ukie has the low in far southern LA/AL coast @120. GFS ENS Mean looked a good bit east from the OP to me. Had the low running from CLT to RDU then off the coast. Euro Ensemble mean SFC low track is from eastern TN then redeveloping in eastern VA. 6z GFS ens mean SFC low position is between RDU and FAY at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I would think that for us in nc, 2 weaker lows are better than one jethro low. That is unless we get a TRUE miller A along the coast. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro Ensemble mean SFC low track is from eastern TN then redeveloping in eastern VA. 6z GFS ens mean SFC low position is between RDU and FAY at 132. Thanks for the clarification. There is a reason why I run social media and am not on the other side of a camera talking to people about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ENS isn't out for me yet. Ukie has the low in far southern LA/AL coast @120. GFS ENS Mean looked a good bit east from the OP to me. Had the low running from CLT to RDU then off the coast. ukie looks like a miller a. At 144the its off tbe southern va coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Canadian. Ensemble mean looks close to the op. More inland than the op but it's a miller a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks for the clarification. There is a reason why I run social media and am not on the other side of a camera talking to people about weather Haha... no, you were on it! Was just throwing out there what I had just seen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Good morning Everyone. It looks like there is a lot of Lake Effect snow activity going on this morning. It seems like it's been forever since we've seen much of that. I might just be misremembering, but it sure seems like it's been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 heres the Text output for Nashville from the 0z Euro. Little backside snow per this run ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 21-DEC 4.6 -6.9 1010 51 85 0.00 541 533 FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -8.8 1015 46 88 0.00 539 527 FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 -8.1 1018 47 27 0.00 539 525 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 4.2 -7.3 1021 38 12 0.00 547 530 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 2.0 -4.7 1022 41 1 0.00 555 537 SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.6 -1.3 1025 50 10 0.00 560 540 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -4.2 2.0 1027 64 14 0.00 563 542 SAT 18Z 22-DEC 5.3 3.3 1026 37 19 0.00 566 545 SUN 00Z 23-DEC 0.8 5.0 1023 66 11 0.00 566 547 SUN 06Z 23-DEC 0.1 6.6 1021 65 25 0.00 565 549 SUN 12Z 23-DEC 2.1 4.0 1019 67 27 0.00 564 549 SUN 18Z 23-DEC 11.1 4.3 1017 57 37 0.00 563 550 MON 00Z 24-DEC 9.4 5.2 1016 78 25 0.01 563 550 MON 06Z 24-DEC 9.0 6.1 1015 97 42 0.04 564 551 MON 12Z 24-DEC 9.5 7.5 1013 98 78 0.07 562 552 MON 18Z 24-DEC 12.3 8.3 1009 96 77 0.33 559 552 TUE 00Z 25-DEC 12.2 6.3 1008 98 35 0.33 556 550 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 10.1 4.9 1012 98 8 0.02 560 550 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 7.8 5.9 1014 98 4 0.01 561 549 TUE 18Z 25-DEC 9.3 6.7 1012 83 16 0.01 560 549 WED 00Z 26-DEC 7.7 6.2 1007 97 100 0.33 558 552 WED 06Z 26-DEC 11.7 8.8 998 99 51 0.37 553 555 WED 12Z 26-DEC 6.2 -3.3 997 89 57 0.12 537 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.4 -7.4 1002 80 96 0.06 534 532 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -11.4 1010 62 79 0.04 537 529 THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.9 -10.9 1015 71 63 0.03 542 531 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.4 -6.7 1020 70 20 0.01 552 536 THU 18Z 27-DEC 1.3 -2.1 1022 63 6 0.00 558 540 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.4 0.0 1022 80 19 0.00 563 545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 UKMET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So we have the UKMET and GEM with a straight Miller A... similar to 18z GFS yesterday.Obviously, different on the 0z and 6z GFS and 0z Euro. All has to do with the timing of that vort closing off and when it makes the left-hand turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think a lot of folks are looking past Christmas and to the next system around New Year's, but it looks like the cards are still on the table for some winter weather around here. The models are still all over the place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The evolution of the current system that will turn into the 50/50 low for the 12/26 event is changing with every model and every model run it seems. The ECMWF is doing something completely different that the GFS/UKMET/CMC, in that it is actually developing two ULLs - one in south-central Canada, and another in the 50/50 region. It ends up phasing the one in south-central Canada with our southern stream shortwave, causing it to take a negative tilt and start lifting out of the trough quicker. We know the ECMWF has a tendency to phase anything it can, so I can't buy into that solution entirely until we see other models starting to do the same thing. How the 50/50 low develops and how far south it remains are going to be critical for us because 1) it will provide more upper level diffluence confluence which will result in the surface high we need over the northeast, and 2) it will force the shortwave to remain further south. Look at the difference between the 18z solution over southeastern Canada and the 00z from last night. 18z GFS: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 All of these model solutions with NO consistency...frustrating but fun nonetheless. Lets hope we can get some better model runs today. Either way, there are a lot of things to watch during the coming weeks. I have a feeling 1 or more of these vorts will bring some wintery weather to the SE. Picking out which one and where is the hard part .....Stay tuned...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Good post Briarcreek, here is the 0z CMC ensemble mean. A track like this would be a big hit for the mtn's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 During crazy model inconsistencies ensemble runs are typically the best avenue, although, even the ensembles vary between the EURO, GEM, GFS, and UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 One thing that stood out to me in looking at the 00z runs is with respect to the lead wave that treks across the midwest and into the Great Lakes at days 3-4...the Canadian is stronger with this wave (it closes it off as seen below at day 4)...and that forces the next wave (our storm of interest) to take a more southern route underneath the confluence. Also, the 2 waves are a little closer together on the Canadian, again, forcing it to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 One thing that stood out to me in looking at the 00z runs is with respect to the lead wave that treks across the midwest and into the Great Lakes at days 3-4...the Canadian is stronger with this wave (it closes it off as seen below at day 4)...and that forces the next wave (our storm of interest) to take a more southern route underneath the confluence. Also, the 2 waves are a little closer together on the Canadian, again, forcing it to dig. As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)? Yes, and now the the nogaps this is the only image I could muster. It's weaker and farther south and east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As that first wave passes, wouldn't that act to usher in colder air and push the baroclinic zone farther south and east? Don't we sometimes see this in the cases of storms being squashed (i.e. the lead wave's development/movement effectively keeps the trailing wave flat and south, so we end up colder and drier as opposed to baking and raining under an amped up system)? Yes, I agree. On the Canadian, the first wave swings a cold front through, then moves on out to the NE allowing the next wave to drop in with the storm. It's perfect timing really, which is what it will take...Chaminade beating Virginia is what comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So who is going to be the first to extrapolate the 84 hour NAM? Come on, first time this season, any volunteers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks guys... Nam is gonna phase early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just an early guess but it looks like the 12z may be a solution in between the 00z and 18z runs of the GFS...at 5h it looks that way early on. Our S/W out in the southwest isn't digging quite as much as it did on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks guys... Nam is gonna phase early. What happened with the NAM? The only models people have talked about are the Euro and GFS, and sometimes Canadien. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What happened with the NAM? The only models people have talked about are the Euro and GFS, and sometimes Canadien. NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What happened with the NAM? The only models people have talked about are the Euro and GFS, and sometimes Canadien. The NAM only goes out to 84hrs...thus only to Mon evening. It only shows rain for you anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Way west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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