nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think KGSP is generally spot on with a potential 1" to 3" of snow on the backside of the Wednesday event and a possible 1" to 3" snow on the front side of the Saturday event before a warm nose shuts it down. Great precip patterns with multiple storms but we just don't have adequate cold air. This comment is for NC NW mountain counties above 4500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Funny thing is Euro shows something for the 30th and GFS doesn't but GFS does show something good a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 So much for snow here! same old crap either cold/dry or warm/wet That the glory of living in the southeast!!! .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. BTW- Here's our New Year's snow storm!!! lol MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .NEW YEARS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting that the 0z NAM shifted east giving the western 1/3 of TN snow with the far NW part of TN a big snow. Good luck TN friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Started. lol Maybe we can set the worlds record for storm threads without actually ever having a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gusts to 107 forecasted for Grandfather Mountain ...THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT... THEN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE CLOUDS ALL NIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH... INCREASING TO 40 TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS 45 TO 50 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND...DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 73 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AND... INCREASING TO 60 TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 103 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 65 MPH...DECREASING TO 45 TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 107 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 EURO is ugly this weekend, goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 After that fail of a warm front forecast for last night's severe weather, I think I'll just look outside from now on. It seems if the models show nothing, we have our better chances these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 so is this still a potentially tornadic day for central NC? Sandhills area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Arwx: Looks like a higher chance of torandic event just to the east, across the Coastal Plain ... but eastern Sandhills, certainly anyone east of I-95, needs to stay vigilant. RAP is showing strong crossover shear early afternoon over the Sandhills, continuing into early evening to the east. As the amount of shear evident in yesterday's storms showed, things can spin up with little warning. But our biggest threat will be afternoon straight-line winds. But strongest CAPE is staying closer to the coast. It could get really ugly Down East this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 After that fail of a warm front forecast for last night's severe weather, I think I'll just look outside from now on. It seems if the models show nothing, we have our better chances these days. Yeah Shawn, the Georgia severe storm shield was alive and well yesterday, its warmer now outside than anytime yesterday. I don't think it got above 48 degrees IMBY on Christmas day. When I saw no letup of the misty weather yesterday, I figured we wouldn't even get a clap of thunder. Pretty good heavy rain event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 EURO is ugly this weekend, goodnight. No it was not and you have no idea what you're talking about. It was a little weaker but it still had the disturbance there and temps were only a smidge warmer if anything sfc temps are colder towards the mountains. Yes it was weaker, but let's actually give some REASONS why it was ugly as you claim instead of just saying it's ugly. This is possibly why you're up for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Per allan tweets and robert fb niether to excited about anything on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nice cold rain on Saturday per the 12Z GFS. No HP around and that little area of LP over the great leakes. Good day to make some chilli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z euro looks like a decent setup for for NC mountains at hr 72. Not a huge event but decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Overall a nice track on the 12z euro but there just isn't any cold air to work with. Hopefully it'll throw us a bone around 1/2 - 1/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Can't believe nobody on this board checked the 12z Canadian .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nw mtns, and western Va. other than that cold rain! It's close enough that the foothills could see a little snow maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Can't believe nobody on this board checked the 12z Canadian .... Would be a good track. No cold air though, seems to be the theme...lets hope we can get some real cold air into January and February or we're toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Robert mentioned on FB something to watch next week but also said cold hard to find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I would think per 12z Euro I might at least see a few flakes mixed in Saturday? SAT 12Z 29-DEC 0.8 -1.7 1014 99 98 0.18 557 545 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 5.5 -1.1 1009 74 84 0.10 547 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's what DT posted on FB about the Euro Ensembles.. ...the European ENSEMBLE shows a pretty will develop system moving off the East Coast of Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern shore and spreading anywhere from 0.25 to 0.75" liquid -- ALL snow -- for Western North Carolina ... all of southwestern Virginia... throughout the entire Virginia Piedmont ...all the Shenandoah Valley ...into central and Eastern MD including the DC and Baltimore metro areas as well as the northern neck of Virginia... Up into all of southeastern PA DEL ...ALL of NJ ...NYC CT and Long Island and southeastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GEFS shows a nice winter storm for the mountains and probably foothills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So close in the southern foothills ! Thanks for posting !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So close in the southern foothills ! Thanks for posting !! That is all rain for the foothills. It's 12 hour precip totals. In other words, it's cold chasing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That is all rain for the foothills. It's 12 hour precip totals. In other words, it's cold chasing rain. Will see what happens, but verbatim the northern foothills is snow on the Euro, GFS is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have a feeling the Saturday event is going to be all precip driven. If you get into a heavy band, you will likely see some snow as the temps aloft will be colder than at the surface. This would result in a temporary isothermal layer from 700mb down to the surface resulting in wet snow. If it lasts long enough, there willl likely be accumulations, especially in the mountains. It will also help that the majority of this will be b/n midnight and morning Saturday over western NC. I think with the SLP tracking pretty far south, WAA is probably being overdone on the models at the boundary layer. *** To qualify, this is for western and north Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So Robert, you're telling me there's a chance.... I dunno, you'll have to ask him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 After looking at the models I have a issue I am trying to figure out what mountain I should drive to this week end to see some snow would the MT Rogers area be better then grandfather mountain area? Sorry for the Weenie question I just have to see some snow before the year end lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No it was not and you have no idea what you're talking about. It was a little weaker but it still had the disturbance there and temps were only a smidge warmer if anything sfc temps are colder towards the mountains. Yes it was weaker, but let's actually give some REASONS why it was ugly as you claim instead of just saying it's ugly. This is possibly why you're up for WOTY. Calm Down. Besides, I was right about this last storm days in advance with where the real snow would be. You werent. Remember the GFS was closer with the storm in the 168 to 180 hour range than the md range before it switched back. The euro only had real consensus when the GFS did, too. Besides, you always talk about the euro but never post anything to back it up. Then when people like me look it up and find the euros different you chew them out. I won't forget you claiming the euro was way east when it wasn't. Or giving the entire I40 corridor snow when it didn't and that's not what happened. Anyway, there s a little light snow here and the mountains will pick up a few inches tonight perhaps. I'll know from the report tomorrow. This wraps up anything major for December here methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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