HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The GFS setup at day 7 would probably produce the biggest winter storm in several years, pretty easily. Extremely good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I see the GFS has another huge storm post-New Years...if nothing else, we're making up for lost time in the rainfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 THe GFS will probably screw it up, but there is major phasing about to happen around day 7-7.5. Would likely result in a huge cutoff over the Tennessee Valley. Reminds me a lot of the 09-10 snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I see the GFS has another huge storm post-New Years...if nothing else, we're making up for lost time in the rainfall department. That woudn't be rain bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Given IT IS THE GFS, if this is what the 500mb map looks like next Tuesday Night, we're going to be partying. This would result in an absolute bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 isnt the gfs verbatim showing a mainly tn/western nc event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Given IT IS THE GFS, if this is what the 500mb map looks like next Tuesday Night, we're going to be partying. This would result in an absolute bomb. I was just about to post this myself... this is what I was sketching yesterday. Textbook SECS w/ 50/50 in place and +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I was just about to post this myself... this is what I was sketching yesterday. Textbook SECS w/ 50/50 in place and +PNA Yea that setup has everything you can ask for to be honest, +PNA w/ the split-flow, 50/50 low, and CAD. Would likely result in a phased bomb Miller A or some type of hybrid Miller A-B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 THe GFS will probably screw it up, but there is major phasing about to happen around day 7-7.5. Would likely result in a huge cutoff over the Tennessee Valley. Reminds me a lot of the 09-10 snowstorms. I like the look, but if phasing happened that far west, wouldn't that force a west of the Apps track? The 50/50 looks good, but it seems like we'd have southerly winds with a huge cut-off to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 even if it is showing a western nc event right now, it is great to see this show up at 180hrs and not 200+. plenty of things left to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, I've had several teachers at the school tell me they want a New Years storm to extend the current break. I guess that would do the trick. Will be interesting to see if the Euro starts picking up on the 1/2 storm. I had posted a comment yesterday on the January thread that we can't have storms on both 12/30 and 1/2, instead one would have to sacrifice itself for the other. Seems like in the south you need a good 4 days in-between shortwaves to pop a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I like the look, but if phasing happened that far west, wouldn't that force a west of the Apps track? The 50/50 looks good, but it seems like we'd have southerly winds with a huge cut-off to our west. Verbatim it would probably be a miller a/b type system where the SLP goes towards central GA and then kinda redevlops off of SC. Not a traditional Miller A, but more of a hybrid kinda like 1996. Too far out to really worry about any specifics though. It could trend much differently. It's fun to think about the possibilities w/ that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GEFS for the Dec 30th event is way inland, essentially is taking the same path as tomorrow's storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Verbatim it would probably be a miller a/b type system where the SLP goes towards central GA and then kinda redevlops off of SC. Not a traditional Miller A, but more of a hybrid kinda like 1996. Too far out to really worry about any specifics though. It could trend much differently. It's fun to think about the possibilities w/ that map. Thanks. Yeah, that'll change for sure, but you're right about it being fun to look at. 1996 sucked for me. Fast forward that about 4 years and now we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here's what DT has to say about the 12z GFS Wxrisk.com COMMENTS ON DEC 30 EVENT and POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM... 12Z GFS run Ignore it . Besides the cold bias of the Model one of then other well known problems with the GFS Model is that is LOVES to take 2 pieces of energy in the Jet stream and MERGE of "PHASES" them into 1 bigger system . This is apparently what the 12z TUESDAY 12/25 run of the GFS is doing with respect to the the DEC 30 event. Given ... 1) the overall pattern 2) the fact that will be a BIG over se Canada that will force the Low to swing WIDE -- stay south 3) the 12z CMC is way south and hits VA with a good snow 4) THE HUGE WILD SWINGS of the last several runs of the GFS Model 5) the amazing consistency of the last few rusn of the ECWMF and ECMWF ENS... Like I said...12z gfs for DEC 30? ignore itSee More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks like 12Z GEFS shows post New Years storm with 850s further south and colder. Hopefully operational just has surface low and features much too north for that 5H pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here's what DT has to say about the 12z GFS Wxrisk.com COMMENTS ON DEC 30 EVENT and POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM... 12Z GFS run Ignore it . Besides the cold bias of the Model one of then other well known problems with the GFS Model is that is LOVES to take 2 pieces of energy in the Jet stream and MERGE of "PHASES" them into 1 bigger system . This is apparently what the 12z TUESDAY 12/25 run of the GFS is doing with respect to the the DEC 30 event. Given ... 1) the overall pattern 2) the fact that will be a BIG over se Canada that will force the Low to swing WIDE -- stay south 3) the 12z CMC is way south and hits VA with a good snow 4) THE HUGE WILD SWINGS of the last several runs of the GFS Model 5) the amazing consistency of the last few rusn of the ECWMF and ECMWF ENS... Like I said...12z gfs for DEC 30? ignore itSee More Interesting for sure, after last week when he said the storm tomorrow won't cut because of the "Rex block", and now the storm is cutting up the OV...Euro is running, if it holds than that would be huge. But the GEFS was farther NW than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ggem and ukmet hold serve with the southern slider idea. Ukie much stronger though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM looks like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well Euro fairly close to 0z, warmer, anywhere east of 85 is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You guys still talking about the storm on the 30th? We might ought to have a thread for the 30 storm and one for the post new year's storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You guys still talking about the storm on the 30th? We might ought to have a thread for the 30 storm and one for the post new year's storm. TW We already have a January discussion thread, which has already included the post New Year's storm posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You guys still talking about the storm on the 30th? We might ought to have a thread for the 30 storm and one for the post new year's storm. TW Started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks like snow in central and west NC, but boundary layer looks warm (mid-30's) on Friday night/Saturday. Obviously can/will change. I do think this looks pretty good though from AVL to GSO west if the euro is right. The sfc warming is probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks like snow in central and west NC, but boundary layer looks warm (mid-30's) on Friday night/Saturday. Obviously can/will change. It does appear to hit at a good time. Snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It does appear to hit at a good time. Snow to rain? Probably early to mid morning Saturday in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I guess this could be sleet, but I can't see the other layers aloft until the entire runs comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks like snow in central and west NC, but boundary layer looks warm (mid-30's) on Friday night/Saturday. Obviously can/will change. I do think this looks pretty good though from AVL to GSO west if the euro is right. The sfc warming is probably overdone. This Friday/Sat, December 28/29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This Friday/Sat, December 28/29? Yes, euro would be a quick shot of wet snow, maybe 1-3 inches from the AVL-GSO corridor. Maybe 3-4 in the mountains/northern foothills towards VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Per 12z Euro, Like Brandon said surface is a little warm, but hopefully that will change for the better? This is for Mt.Airy SAT 12Z 29-DEC 0.9 -2.6 1015 98 100 0.09 556 544 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 2.1 -1.5 1011 94 95 0.22 547 538 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 2.6 -2.9 1012 81 21 0.01 547 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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