DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 FWIW-- JB just tweeted This storm should be futher south than Wednesday storm, BUT the 00z Euro looks to far south! he probably said that bc it doesn't hit pa.and is a minimal event verbatim for the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 he probably said that bc it doesn't hit pa.and is a minimal event verbatim for the ne. That could be the reason? Idk just passing info along!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's not going to snow in NGA if it's 6C at the SFC. Looks good for the I-40 corridor in NC and TN though. Nashville would really do well as its modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z Euro tracks the 850mb low from Jackson, MS to just southeast of Charlotte to Kill Devil Hills, NC...surface low tracks from Gulfport, MS to Savannah, to just off Wilmington, NC. At a minimum, it's a great run for the NC mountains. Just a well-timed, straight up Miller A storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's not going to snow in NGA if it's 6C at the SFC. Looks good for the I-40 corridor in NC and TN though. Nashville would really do well as its modeled. Yeah, its close though. Temps always the issue here, story of my life ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GVL LAT= 34.27 LON= -83.83 ELE= 1276 00Z DEC25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 25-DEC 9.3 6.8 1013 99 8 0.00 563 553 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 8.5 6.0 1015 99 3 0.00 565 553 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 6.2 5.3 1016 98 7 0.00 567 553 TUE 18Z 25-DEC 10.8 4.8 1017 87 10 0.00 565 551 WED 00Z 26-DEC 9.2 5.3 1014 99 94 0.27 564 553 WED 06Z 26-DEC 10.7 8.4 1007 99 94 0.59 562 556 WED 12Z 26-DEC 13.5 8.2 999 97 30 0.79 553 554 WED 18Z 26-DEC 4.7 -4.3 1004 72 40 0.05 546 543 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.4 -5.8 1008 72 40 0.02 549 543 THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.6 2.1 1012 68 1 0.00 559 550 THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.6 7.1 1015 70 4 0.00 563 551 THU 18Z 27-DEC 8.0 6.3 1016 46 5 0.00 566 553 FRI 00Z 28-DEC 3.4 5.7 1017 65 18 0.00 568 554 FRI 06Z 28-DEC 0.4 6.3 1018 75 18 0.00 568 553 FRI 12Z 28-DEC -0.2 5.2 1019 72 91 0.00 567 552 FRI 18Z 28-DEC 10.2 4.9 1019 42 31 0.00 568 552 SAT 00Z 29-DEC 5.8 4.8 1019 73 13 0.00 567 552 SAT 06Z 29-DEC 4.5 5.8 1017 79 45 0.00 565 551 SAT 12Z 29-DEC 4.3 0.4 1016 96 99 0.20 562 549 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 4.1 0.7 1010 96 88 0.26 555 547 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 2.8 -0.7 1013 92 69 0.13 547 536 SUN 06Z 30-DEC 0.5 -3.6 1021 73 7 0.00 555 538 SUN 12Z 30-DEC -2.1 0.3 1026 71 5 0.00 566 546 SUN 18Z 30-DEC 6.3 3.8 1027 43 13 0.00 571 549 MON 00Z 31-DEC 1.2 5.8 1028 66 5 0.00 574 552 MON 06Z 31-DEC -2.6 7.3 1027 76 6 0.00 575 553 MON 12Z 31-DEC -1.1 7.4 1026 66 10 0.00 575 553 MON 18Z 31-DEC 9.9 6.7 1025 36 7 0.00 575 555 TUE 00Z 01-JAN 4.8 6.5 1023 71 3 0.00 574 555 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Memphis (MEG) has issued blizzard warnings for the very first time. Sent from my DroidX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Where did you get this data from? I like it. Thumbs up Yeah, its close though. Temps always the issue here, story of my life ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GVL LAT= 34.27 LON= -83.83 ELE= 1276 00Z DEC25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 25-DEC 9.3 6.8 1013 99 8 0.00 563 553 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 8.5 6.0 1015 99 3 0.00 565 553 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 6.2 5.3 1016 98 7 0.00 567 553 TUE 18Z 25-DEC 10.8 4.8 1017 87 10 0.00 565 551 WED 00Z 26-DEC 9.2 5.3 1014 99 94 0.27 564 553 WED 06Z 26-DEC 10.7 8.4 1007 99 94 0.59 562 556 WED 12Z 26-DEC 13.5 8.2 999 97 30 0.79 553 554 WED 18Z 26-DEC 4.7 -4.3 1004 72 40 0.05 546 543 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.4 -5.8 1008 72 40 0.02 549 543 THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.6 2.1 1012 68 1 0.00 559 550 THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.6 7.1 1015 70 4 0.00 563 551 THU 18Z 27-DEC 8.0 6.3 1016 46 5 0.00 566 553 FRI 00Z 28-DEC 3.4 5.7 1017 65 18 0.00 568 554 FRI 06Z 28-DEC 0.4 6.3 1018 75 18 0.00 568 553 FRI 12Z 28-DEC -0.2 5.2 1019 72 91 0.00 567 552 FRI 18Z 28-DEC 10.2 4.9 1019 42 31 0.00 568 552 SAT 00Z 29-DEC 5.8 4.8 1019 73 13 0.00 567 552 SAT 06Z 29-DEC 4.5 5.8 1017 79 45 0.00 565 551 SAT 12Z 29-DEC 4.3 0.4 1016 96 99 0.20 562 549 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 4.1 0.7 1010 96 88 0.26 555 547 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 2.8 -0.7 1013 92 69 0.13 547 536 SUN 06Z 30-DEC 0.5 -3.6 1021 73 7 0.00 555 538 SUN 12Z 30-DEC -2.1 0.3 1026 71 5 0.00 566 546 SUN 18Z 30-DEC 6.3 3.8 1027 43 13 0.00 571 549 MON 00Z 31-DEC 1.2 5.8 1028 66 5 0.00 574 552 MON 06Z 31-DEC -2.6 7.3 1027 76 6 0.00 575 553 MON 12Z 31-DEC -1.1 7.4 1026 66 10 0.00 575 553 MON 18Z 31-DEC 9.9 6.7 1025 36 7 0.00 575 555 TUE 00Z 01-JAN 4.8 6.5 1023 71 3 0.00 574 555 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That could be the reason? Idk just passing info along!!! He might have missed the cold but on the last two systems that many were excited about he said from the get go where they were going and he was right. He has said all month gfs is wrong and he has been right. I hope he is wrong but just know what he has said about this system now and last week. So keep bashing about the cold not being here. If it never gets here like all models keep saying every other run then not only will his winter forecast go down many others will also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EC ensemble is a significant snow hit on the day 5 storm for NC. I'm going to write a column on the next 3 events sometime today (26th/30th/2-4th) since i finally have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EC ensemble is a significant snow hit on the day 5 storm for NC. I'm going to write a column on the next 3 events sometime today (26th/30th/2-4th) since i finally have time. Yep roughly CLT to RDU and points west and north from that line. Then the next storms drop snow even further south. Guys I think it's game on for 12/30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd like to see the EURO/ENS hold serve on this next run.... Would be a good gift on this day of gift giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EC ensemble is a significant snow hit on the day 5 storm for NC. I'm going to write a column on the next 3 events sometime today (26th/30th/2-4th) since i finally have time. With Euro/UKIE/CMC on relatively same page it sure is interesting, but GFS has been fairly good inside 5 days, so there is some worry here that GFS is sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Encouraging run of the euro last night for the end of the month. I was just upgraded to a blizzard warning here.... I'll do my best to bring my good mojo back with me for the end of the month potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Where did you get this data from? I like it. Thumbs up Accuwx pro. I love that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd like to see the EURO/ENS hold serve on this next run.... Would be a good gift on this day of gift giving. I think we all would like to see that !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas all. After looking at all the overnight model runs I can take ONE big thing out of it. There is a very good signal for a gulf low being shown under 5 days. Will it have enough cold to work with? Let's not worry about that at this point. I want to see how the modeling changes after we get this big storm out of our way. Let's be happy for our winter loving friends to the west as parts of Arkansas and Tennessee, and Mississippi will see snow out of this (maybe even blizzard conditions)........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 850's look good for here, but surface not as good! SAT 06Z 29-DEC -0.7 2.9 1018 81 28 0.00 562 547 SAT 12Z 29-DEC 1.0 2.0 1017 77 46 0.00 559 545 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 2.3 -2.8 1013 93 99 0.08 554 544 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 1.2 -3.1 1010 97 98 0.22 545 537 SUN 06Z 30-DEC 0.4 -5.4 1014 74 41 0.06 542 532 SUN 12Z 30-DEC -3.2 -5.3 1021 62 17 0.00 550 533 SUN 18Z 30-DEC 2.1 -3.0 1023 49 9 0.00 561 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No need to even look at the 12z GFS...hasn't budged a bit in regards to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS blows, doesn't dig as much, this is a 96 hour prog, I am thinking Euro folds at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Why is it when the GFS shows a snowstorm and the Euro doesn't, everyone is sure that the GFS will fold to the Euro and when the opposite happens, the opposite happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS still isn't quite there for this weekend. The low to the north is a little close and the low to the south just isn't quite strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well at this point, I'm just pulling for a little backside flizzard action tomorrow down my way. Be nice to just see some passing flakes while awaiting January with high hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Why is it when the GFS shows a snowstorm and the Euro doesn't, everyone is sure that the GFS will fold to the Euro and when the opposite happens, the opposite happens? I always wonder the same thing...isn't Euro supposed to be king? Which is it? With this recent storm folks were talking about how it was case closed that Euro was showing the low going to the northwest. Let's hold out hope until say Thursday. Still plenty of time to trend in the direction we want and TBH GFS was close but no cigar. Again this storm is probably a bonus if it happens so if it doesn't no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Why is it when the GFS shows a snowstorm and the Euro doesn't, everyone is sure that the GFS will fold to the Euro and when the opposite happens, the opposite happens? I think in general, some folks like to get a rise out of other folks. I did notice on the last 2 runs of the GFS Ensemble (00z & 06z), that the placement of the wave on the operational run on the spaghetti plots around hour 120 was on the southern side of the envelope (when comparing with the other GFS ensemble members)...giving some credence to a more northerly track, at least per the GFS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 I always wonder the same thing...isn't Euro supposed to be king? Which is it? With this recent storm folks were talking about how it was case closed that Euro was showing the low going to the northwest. Let's hold out hope until say Thursday. Still plenty of time to trend in the direction we want and TBH GFS was close but no cigar. Again this storm is probably a bonus if it happens so if it doesn't no big deal. I think we've become accustomed to, when one solution shows snow and one doesn't, believing the one that doesn't, just on principle. Probably not the least accurate belief, since we usually don't get snow, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's grounded in actual science either, since each situation is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This was earlier from Allan... December 29th-30th Storm This storm remains an interesting one. The latest 00z ECMWF has shifted a little further south with a surface low moving across the Gulf Coast and then strengthening off the southeast coast Saturday/Sunday. The model literally lays down 4-8 inches of snow across, WV, eastern KY, NE TN, NW NC and wetern Va, with 1-4 inches across central/eastern TN/ mot of KY, central/eastern Va, and northern NC. This is a much colder/wintry solution than the 6z GFS which shifted more to the north. This scenario has good support it appears from the ECMWF Ensemble members as the mean is very close to the operational. The 6z GFS Ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational run with the further north/warmer scenario. The 00z Canadians shows a much weaker system, but a similar track/thermal profile as the ECWMF. The 00z UKMET also looks similar to the ECMWF. With most of the global model guidance leaning towards the further south/colder scenario, for now I will trust the ECMWF/ECMWF ENS/UKMET consensus over the GFS. With this track, the potential exists for wintry weather in particularly for TN/KY/WV/VA/NC this coming Saturday into Sunday. It looks primarily to be a rain vs snow scenario if this track verifies. I will keep you updated on this potential system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think in general, some folks like to get a rise out of other folks. I did notice on the last 2 runs of the GFS Ensemble (00z & 06z), that the placement of the wave on the operational run on the spaghetti plots around hour 120 was on the southern side of the envelope (when comparing with the other GFS ensemble members)...giving some credence to a more northerly track, at least per the GFS/GEFS. :-))) Well I tend to side with the model that doesn't show a winter event for the SE as the odds are usually in that models favor. The 12z GFS was a little better this run than the 0z last night, haven't looked at the 6z yet. Plus the UK/CMC and all important NoGaps were on the Euro's side. But the GFS is very worrisome as inside 4 days it's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 This was earlier from Allan... December 29th-30th Storm This storm remains an interesting one. The latest 00z ECMWF has shifted a little further south with a surface low moving across the Gulf Coast and then strengthening off the southeast coast Saturday/Sunday. The model literally lays down 4-8 inches of snow across, WV, eastern KY, NE TN, NW NC and wetern Va, with 1-4 inches across central/eastern TN/ mot of KY, central/eastern Va, and northern NC. This is a much colder/wintry solution than the 6z GFS which shifted more to the north. This scenario has good support it appears from the ECMWF Ensemble members as the mean is very close to the operational. The 6z GFS Ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational run with the further north/warmer scenario. The 00z Canadians shows a much weaker system, but a similar track/thermal profile as the ECWMF. The 00z UKMET also looks similar to the ECMWF. With most of the global model guidance leaning towards the further south/colder scenario, for now I will trust the ECMWF/ECMWF ENS/UKMET consensus over the GFS. With this track, the potential exists for wintry weather in particularly for TN/KY/WV/VA/NC this coming Saturday into Sunday. It looks primarily to be a rain vs snow scenario if this track verifies. I will keep you updated on this potential system! I'm glad you left out the very end of his comments. That part sucked and I didn't want to see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 :-))) Well I tend to side with the model that doesn't show a winter event for the SE as the odds are usually in that models favor. The 12z GFS was a little better this run than the 0z last night, haven't looked at the 6z yet. Plus the UK/CMC and all important NoGaps were on the Euro's side. But the GFS is very worrisome as inside 4 days it's pretty good. Throw it out! For real though, the 4-5 day window is often when the models lose systems and bring them back around the 3 day mark. That may not apply this time, since I don't recall the system being there and being lost. Either way, it's there now, but I wonder if the same principle applies here...the system responsible for the 30th storm isn't being modeled very well yet over a data void area or something. Plus, I think the eventual evolution of the current storm will play a major role. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 There ls more drama on this board than On the politics and religion board. At any rate, I am optimistic that the pattern will yield something good very soon. As many are saying on the Mid Atlantic board, the Western ridge is king this year, much more important than a -NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.