rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You demonstrate a lot of patience. LOL, two daughters can do that for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We always seem to be 10 days away from a good chance of snow. It gets old. Not sure why we ever trust the models that far out. We keep getting suckered baxk in, though. It seems the only time we actually get anything in my area is when something doesn't show up on the models until 48 hours or less ahead of time. Suggestion. From now on only comment on things you don't see. In keeping with the theme, I also suggest changing the color of your type to the background color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I agree POWERSTROKE...I haven't really been excited about anything either. I will admit the 1/2 - 1/4 timeframe has caught my eye but still a long ways to go there. Just looks like another winter like last year where the set up is just not there. I think it will eventually but for time being no model can be trusted outside of five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z nam has come in with significantly stronger hp over the lakes 60-72 hrs. Still gonna watch it. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z nam has come in with significantly stronger hp over the lakes 60-72 hrs. Still gonna watch it. Tw How cold is it for around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lots of precip coming for the interior SE in the next 4 days if the 00Z NAM is right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How cold is it for around here? Not sure yet. I don't think enough to make a difference. But, I think it could make a difference to those to our north. Regardless, it is interested to see the low pressure move up over TN and then redevelop over central NC. So with HP stronger to the north, if we did see the secondary develp more along the coast, then who knows. I don't think that would help us here, but it would make things very interesting in VA. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 12/30 low pressure is in the gulf south of the panhandle at 138...a perfect track, just need the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z gfs is giving the TN KY border an inch or two. Looks like La Follette and Crossville might get an inch or so. If the low goes a little south then maybe Knoxville can get more than snow showers. Also, I stuck to the current forecast of snow from AR through MO and KY and NW TN on Friday and got pelted by the CAD wishcasters for telling them it wouldn't snow in NC. Now even the met offices think snow in the mountains will be limited since the winds will be further out of the west than northwest. Some kept latching on to the CMC too when it was a clear outlier. It's now with the consensus. You can't pick and choose which models to throw out because they don't give you snow. If there is a solid consensus in the reliable timeframe for a model, it's telling you something. It is fun tto wish cast, and pretend what if, but if the met office discos and the models aren't showing what you want, then you have to cave in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 12/30 low pressure is in the gulf south of the panhandle at 138...a perfect track, just need the cold. @ 144 most of Canada is without arctic air. But yes, that is about where you want that piece of energy in that time frame. Great set-up with almost no cold air to work with. Righ indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 cold air finally shows up at 156, but the storm is already up the east coast. will be something to watch over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @ 144 most of Canada is without arctic air. But yes, that is about where you want that piece of energy in that time frame. Great set-up with almost no cold air to work with. Righ indeed. It'll be hard to see what happens until after this next front. I think a safe bet is rain and snow in TN but rain further south. No accumulations I think. There isn't enough moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z is making a nasty squall line for Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DT has Forsyth and northwest Guilford in his "ice" territory. Unlikely, but at least something to watch. I have more important things to tend to now, like fixing/replacing a broken water heater. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @wxbrad: While eastern parts of the state experience severe weather Wednesday it's likely the mountains will see snow &... http://t.co/bOxYnq33 Map courtesy of Ryan Maue and Brad Pancovich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is way overdone but it is likely some snow will fall with a risk of ice in NW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @wxmanbill: 12z NAM coming around to a much more realistic solution. Delivers impressive snow amounts to central #INwx and central/ northern #OHwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z GFS looks slightly different in regards to the 12/30 system...if you look at maps, not as many meso-low signatures over the Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley but this time a primary low (1010 mb) in the Gulf, however the 850's never make it east of the Apps in North Carolina. Regardless, the air over the Lakes Region looks slightly colder so I'm hoping this is a trend to better things along the I-40 Cooridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z GFS looks slightly different in regards to the 12/30 system...if you look at maps, not as many meso-low signatures over the Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley but this time a primary low (1010 mb) in the Gulf, however the 850's never make it east of the Apps in North Carolina. Regardless, the air over the Lakes Region looks slightly colder so I'm hoping this is a trend to better things along the I-40 Cooridor. I like the trend of the 12z. Definately a colder solution. We are still not there, but this is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 EURO is a smidge further SE with the SFC low (994mb vs 998 *ish*) on the 00z run. It looks like the low is near HSV at 6z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Between 120-144 hours, the EURO tracks a LP from the Panhandle of Florida to just south of Cape Cod. I have no idea what happens in between...but I'm felling a little better about the potential for some type of wintry weather (even if short lived) for portions of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Between 120-144 hours, the EURO tracks a LP from the Panhandle of Florida to just south of Cape Cod. I have no idea what happens in between...but I'm felling a little better about the potential for some type of wintry weather (even if short lived) for portions of the SE. Euro was pretty close to something for NC. Probably light snow for some in WNC at 132 but it's hard to tell if it would just be too dry at that point. Certainly like the look of it though at this point in the game we just need it to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro was pretty close to something for NC. Probably light snow for some in WNC at 132 but it's hard to tell if it would just be too dry at that point. Certainly like the look of it though at this point in the game we just need it to trend colder. It's definitely trended better the past few runs, surface is fairly warm, it would be a shame with a track like that if the western part of the state was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I like the look of the 12/30 storm better today than yesterday. Today it is showing the lp in the gulf as the main low and doesn't have the that piece of energy coming across MO. and KY. Yesterday the energy in KY. was putting us in a warm flow and there wasn't much moisture for NC as the two pieces of energy were reforming off the NC/Va. coast. We're still not there but looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wasn't expecting the Euro ENS to come in colder and the SLP is a little further south in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks great actually, think we have a legit threat here folks, especially for the upper southeast, into the lower mid atlantic. Wasn't expecting the Euro ENS to come in colder and the SLP is a little further south in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks great actually, think we have a legit threat here folks, especially for the upper southeast, into the lower mid atlantic. For anyone east of say I-77 (Winston) is going to be tough with no HP to the north, just a marginal HP would have sufficed with the 50/50. Still for the foothills/mtns and NoVA and points north I would be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For anyone east of say I-77 (Winston) is going to be tough with no HP to the north, just a marginal HP would have sufficed with the 50/50. Still for the foothills/mtns and NoVA and points north I would be excited. I agree, it's gonna be tough w/out that HP. 850's are marginal at best and 2m temps look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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