ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00Z UK finally makes the big shift - tracks deepening surface low through WC MS and N AL to an eventually weaken into NC as new development occurs over the Tidewater Wed evening. Unless something crazy happens, this seems to put the severe threat as the big issue for most of the SE. What makes me particularly nervous about the severe potential with this setup is that the lead wave moving through Monday will pull up quite a bit of moisture which will just be left behind as that wave moves off and everything waits for the big system Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will result in an unusually moist and unstable airmass (especially for late December) for an extremely potent weather system to work with. well said and this will probably be a factor Deltadog and I were just talking about the dewpoints projected by the GFS for central GA Tuesday night... Macon spikes between 7pm at 55-60° Tuesday night and to 60-65° Wednesday 1AM... all with backing SE surface winds and about a 130-degree shift from surface wind to 500mb wind to your point - the untapped moisture left around, a good amount of lift (keeping in mind that you don't need much to get severe in December) combined with a jet streak doesn't look pretty for AL or GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 SE folks don't forget we have a Main Page thread going for this event be it winter or severe weather as well... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38454-major-national-winter-storm-dec-25-28/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_snow_disco.php THE DEEPENING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM (700-500 MB LOWS) AS THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WILL ALLOW FOR MATURING CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE GOMEX WIDE OPEN AND COMMA-HEAD STRUCTURES (CCB...MID-LEVEL TROWAL...AND DRY SLOT) COMING INTO PLAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS WELL...ANY OF WHICH IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD CERTAINLY DISRUPT THE MSTR TRANSPORT N-NW OF THE LOW. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME...NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND ARE PROGGED TO NUDGE UP INTO CEN-NRN AR INTO FAR SW TN...WITH WEAK STATIC STABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH. THUS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION (WHETHER UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE) AND THUS ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN...QUITE A FEW VARYING FACTORS TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS EXPECT FURTHER ALTERATIONS TO THESE PROBABILITIES AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 In case anybody is interested here's that good old 00z cmc, It sorta took a detour off the miller A track... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 west of the apps + other aspects of the model runs from last night = a ghost town in here.............. I think this pattern will produce, but i never felt good about the post Christmas storm. I have been rooting for my friends in Nashville, but felt they would be on the fence as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah here in Nashville, you might as well put a fork in it. I plan to drive upto Paducah Ky, and now I am starting to wonder if that even a bad location and could get dry slotted should things trend West a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12z euro has the 12/29-12/30 threat. It looks fairly similiar to the storm coming up this week. Has a 1002 low over central TN so it's too warm for most of the southeast. But there's a good CAD signal so we could see a good overrunning event in the upper SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 yep I was hoping that when I came on this afternoon that the storm had trended to the south and east. not happening. maybe the new years eve/day storm will be better. seems like every time we track another storm when we get close it also becomes a lake cutter and or not cold enough....go figure seems to happen more this way than not for wnc and the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 yep I was hoping that when I came on this afternoon that the storm had trended to the south and east. not happening. maybe the new years eve/day storm will be better. seems like every time we track another storm when we get close it also becomes a lake cutter and or not cold enough....go figure seems to happen more this way than not for wnc and the upstate. 'Sup Fritschy! This one was never gonna be the one for us. We have got to have a much better cold air source and a much better cold air transport in place than we do right now. Hopefully, we can get a nice snowpack up to the north and west so that even if we don't have a true Arctic air mass up there, we'd still have a chance with decent cold that could be transported in without modifying a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Drought Reliever...Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 interesting track for the 12/30 storm....no cold air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 interesting track for the 12/30 storm....no cold air though. The problem that I've noticed w/ the 12/30 storm is there are two pieces of energy. There's a slp right around the gulf coast but the models have been showing another around Kentucky. That one in KY is bringing in some warm air prior to the moisture. It also doesn't help we don't have a strong HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The storm in the 1/2 timeframe is now showing up on 1/4. Anyway it is south and east but imo that is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 interesting track for the 12/30 storm....no cold air though. I'll take that track any day of the winter season....even if the cold air is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The problem that I've noticed w/ the 12/30 storm is there are two pieces of energy. There's a slp right around the gulf coast but the models have been showing another around Kentucky. That one in KY is bringing in some warm air prior to the moisture. It also doesn't help we don't have a strong HP to the north. Is this for IMBY or the SE in whole,i'm confused? Edit: My opinion around this time frame no one knows what snow pack we'll have this time frame N of us and what effect the lakes send down S.Models wont pick up on either.To early to tell but i bet it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS has a little strip of snow from Boone to Winston Salem...6 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Snow pack will have little to no impact on 850's and whether we get rain/snow. When it could help is when we have a cad situation and the low level cold air travels over snowpack. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Is this for IMBY or the SE in whole,i'm confused? Edit: My opinion around this time frame no one knows what snow pack we'll have this time frame N of us and what effect the lakes send down S.Models wont pick up on either.To early to tell but i bet it's colder. The problem is snow pack to the north is not going to help you if the winds are coming out of the SW. The winds of a low pressure spin counter clockwise, so if you have a slp coming through KY for example, you air is coming from the south. In order to benifit from snow pack in the north, you need a hp (spins clock wise) to the north so your winds will be coming from direction. This is the reason 99% of time you get rain when the low passes to the north or west of you. Cad areas can sometimes get ice in this situation if you have that hp to the north pumping cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The problem is snow pack to the north is not going to help you if the winds are coming out of the SW. The winds of a low pressure spin counter clockwise, so if you have a slp coming through KY for example, you air is coming from the south. In order to benifit from snow pack in the north, you need a hp (spins clock wise) to the north so your winds will be coming from direction. This is the reason 99% of time you get rain when the low passes to the north or west of you. Cad areas can sometimes get ice in this situation if you have that hp to the north pumping cold in. But what you are talking about is for the EC,nothing to do with the mid part of the SE.correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 But what you are talking about is for the EC,nothing to do with the mid part of the SE.correct? No, that goes for your area also...If a lp is tracking from MO. to KY. that is putting you in Tn. in a warm flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 No, that goes for your area also...If a lp is tracking from MO. to KY. that is putting you in Tn. in a warm flow. Blah,you are talking about the after new year storm,my bad,sorry man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Snow pack will have little to no impact on 850's and whether we get rain/snow. When it could help is when we have a cad situation and the low level cold air travels over snowpack. Tw Have to disagree somewhat........ The snowpack can do a few things....it can enhance the low-level cold air during a CAD event, as you mentioned, but the thing that is sometimes overlooked is the confluence it creates. During times when the forcing is not to dramatic, storm tracks will tend to set up near the edge of the snowpack. Not to mention the fact that a good snowpack to the north will allow the cold to be farther south just due to the airmass not being able to modify as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Have to disagree somewhat........ The snowpack can do a few things....it can enhance the low-level cold air during a CAD event, as you mentioned, but the thing that is sometimes overlooked is the confluence it creates. During times when the forcing is not to dramatic, storm tracks will tend to set up near the edge of the snowpack. Not to mention the fact that a good snowpack to the north will allow the cold to be farther south just due to the airmass not being able to modify as quickly. We have basically no CAD event where i'm at.Snow pack also is relevant to us where i'm at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Blah,you are talking about the after new year storm,my bad,sorry man No, I'm talking about the 12/30 storm. The attached image is from the 12z gfs. See the slp in KY? That is a problem imo. If we were dealing w/ the slp in the gulf only, the chances would be better of getting some cold air in. Now I'm still not saying it would be cold enough if it wasn't there but our chances sure would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seems like all trying to find a way to get snow here. Unless it is perfect conditions we generally never get snow in SE. all the hope so solutions very rarely work. I love snow but have not been excited yet this year. None of the models have been accurate and definitely not the gfs. But January should be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seems like all trying to find a way to get snow here. Unless it is perfect conditions we generally never get snow in SE. all the hope so solutions very rarely work. I love snow but have not been excited yet this year. None of the models have been accurate and definitely not the gfs. But January should be better I agree POWERSTROKE...I haven't really been excited about anything either. I will admit the 1/2 - 1/4 timeframe has caught my eye but still a long ways to go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 No, I'm talking about the 12/30 storm. The attached image is from the 12z gfs. See the slp in KY? That is a problem imo. If we were dealing w/ the slp in the gulf only, the chances would be better of getting some cold air in. Now I'm still not saying it would be cold enough if it wasn't there but our chances sure would be better. Goes back to my thought,the lakes are pushing cold further S this time frame,also the mountains area should love this,are the models picking this up?Also you can't just discount what snow pack has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Goes back to my thought,the lakes are pushing cold further S this time frame,also the mountains area should love this,are the models picking this up?Also you can't just discount what snow pack has. The snow pack isn't going to help you if the air source is coming from the south. Now lets say there was a 1030 HP in Michigan and that slp wasn't in KY. Then the snow pack would help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We'll see what happens,either way it looks like we should see a dusting out of this sysyem That's right, still a ways to go and the models can change...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's right, still a ways to go and the models can change...good luck. You demonstrate a lot of patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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